In: Journal of risk research: the official journal of the Society for Risk Analysis Europe and the Society for Risk Analysis Japan, Band 11, Heft 8, S. 983-997
In: Journal of risk research: the official journal of the Society for Risk Analysis Europe and the Society for Risk Analysis Japan, Band 9, Heft 2, S. 141-164
In the immediate aftermath of disaster, governments usually act quickly to reduce risk and to recover their communities' socio-economic functioning. Policy makers in these situations need—but may not have the capacity or time for—substantial analysis and public debate about how to balance short- and long-term societal needs. Inadequate attention to this challenge may result in a deepening of the inequities that increase vulnerability to disaster impacts. We review case examples to illustrate how post-disaster policies may influence the nature, pace, and inclusiveness of community recovery. We then apply a vulnerability/inequity framework to conceptualize how to enhance disaster recovery and avoid perpetuating inequities when weighing the diverse needs of communities across long time horizons.
Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange‐smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.
AbstractUnderstanding public media channel preferences can inform preparedness plans, response strategies and long‐term recovery. However, questions remain about how media consumption changes across pre‐crisis, crisis, and post‐crisis phases. Past theories argue that media use may change for several reasons, including during times of societal conflict and challenge. These theories point to the belief that, during a crisis, we expect media channel use to change because media preferences during a crisis will be fundamentally different compared with everyday routines.This paper takes advantage of a survey fielded to Texas residents soon after Hurricane Harvey. Here, we ask the following: (a) "what media channels are most prominent in each crisis phase?" and (b) "do media channel preferences change across crisis phases?". We use simple descriptive statistics and chi‐square tests to describe media channel preferences across the three crisis phases by demographics. Additionally, we use alluvial diagrams to visualize media channel preferences over time. In total, 62% (n = 174) of respondents reported no changes in channel preferences. However, chi‐square tests identified significant differences in media use changes related to a handful of demographic characteristics. These findings are explored alongside theories that would hypothesize likely media use changes across pre‐crisis, crisis and post‐crisis phases.
AbstractLarge oil spills are disasters associated with psychological effects for exposed communities. The amount of worry that individuals experience after a disaster may be influenced by many factors, such as the type and extent of exposure to disaster impacts, prior trauma, and sociodemographic characteristics. This study examined the nature and predictors of worry about ongoing impacts of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DH) oil spill reported by Gulf of Mexico coastal residents. A random sample of 2,520 adult residents of Gulf of Mexico coastal counties were administered a telephone survey in 2016, including items about persistent worry and exposure to DH impacts, prior trauma, residence at the time of the spill, and sociodemographic characteristics. Respondents varied in the amount of worry they reported about ongoing health, social, and economic impacts. Controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, higher exposure to the DH oil spill was related to higher levels of worry about ongoing impacts, with past traumatic events related specifically to worry about health impacts. Unexpectedly, those who moved into the region after the spill showed similar levels of worry to residents exposed to the spill, and higher levels than residents who did not recall being exposed to the DH oil spill. This study highlights the impact of the DH oil spill on coastal residents many years after the DH disaster. The findings underscore the need to examine multiple pathways by which individuals experience disasters and for risk researchers to close knowledge gaps about long‐term impacts of oil spills within a multi‐dimensional framework.
AbstractThis study contributes to the growing body of knowledge on mental health in the aftermath of disasters by examining depressive symptoms among residents of the U.S. Gulf Coast region 6 years after the onset of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (DHOS). Using data from the Survey of Trauma, Resilience, and Opportunity in Neighborhoods in the Gulf (STRONG), we test how social support and ties to the fishing industry are related to the likelihood of a positive depression screen. The results show that, among most residents of the Gulf Coast region, social support holds an inverse relationship with the likelihood of a positive depression screen. However, among fishing households, greater social support is associated with a higher probability of screening positive for depression. By showing that fishing households with greater social support are more susceptible to depressive symptoms in this setting, our results uncover a potentially important mechanism that contributes to the unique vulnerability of fishers, which in turn holds implications for differential impacts across social groups in environmental disaster contexts.
Abstract Understanding how climate science can be useful in decisions about the management of freshwater resources requires knowledge of decision makers, their climate-sensitive decisions, and the context in which the decisions are being made. A mixed-methods study found that people managing freshwater resources in Hawaii are highly educated and experienced in diverse professions, they perceive climate change as posing a worrisome risk, and they would like to be better informed about how to adapt to climate change. Decision makers with higher climate literacy seem to be more comfortable dealing with uncertain information. Those with lower climate literacy seem to be more trusting of climate information from familiar sources. Freshwater managers in Hawaii make a wide range of climate-sensitive decisions. These decisions can be characterized on several key dimensions including purpose (optimization and evaluation), time horizon (short term and long term), level of information uncertainty (known, uncertain, deeply uncertain, and completely unknown), and information type (quantitative and qualitative). The climate information most relevant to decision makers includes vulnerability assessments incorporating long-term projections about temperature, rainfall distribution, storms, sea level rise, and streamflow changes at an island or statewide scale. The main barriers to using available climate information include insufficient staff time to locate the information and the lack of a clear legal mandate to use the information. Overall, the results suggest that an integrated and systematic approach is needed to determine where and when uncertain climate information is useful and how a larger set of organizational and individual variables affect decision making.
The use of whakapapa by New Zealand Maori is most commonly understood in reference to human descent lines and relationships, where it functions as a family tree or genealogy. But it also refers to an epistemological framework in which perceived patterns and relationships in nature are located. These nonhuman whakapapa contain information concerning an organism's theorized origins from supernatural beings, inferred descent lines, and morphological and ecological relationships. In this context whakapapa appear to function at one level as a "folk taxonomy," in which morphology, utility, and cultural considerations all play an important role. Such whakapapa also function as ecosystem maps of culturally important resources. More information and meaning is provided by accompanying narratives, which contain explanations for why things came to be the way they are, as well as moral guidelines for correct conduct. Renewed interest in the whakapapa of plants and animals has arisen from concerns raised by Maori in regard to genetic modification, particularly the transfer of genes between different species, as this concept is frequently invoked by those who oppose transgenic biotechnology. Informed dialogue on this subject requires an understanding of the structure and function of nonhuman as well as human whakapapa and their underlying rationale, as well as the nature of the relationships among the things included in nonhuman whakapapa. Of additional interest and relevance is the relationship of whakapapa to modern scientific concepts of taxonomy based on phylogeny and the species concept. In this paper we describe and interpret the whakapapa of an important food plant, the sweet potato or kumara, in terms of its apparent functions and underlying rationale. We also discuss how the whakapapa and its associated narratives might contribute to the current debate on genetically modified organisms in New Zealand.
In October 2012, Hurricane Sandy struck the East Coast of the United States, devastating communities across the region. This disaster motivated the federal government to examine how it might improve community and infrastructure resilience so that communities are better prepared for existing and future threats, including those exacerbated by climate change. To ensure that federal agencies incorporate key principles of resilience into their formulation, evaluation, and prioritization of infrastructure investments related to Sandy rebuilding, the Presidential Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Task Force developed its Infrastructure Resilience Guidelines in the spring and summer of 2013. On behalf of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience Interagency Policy Committee's Subcommittee on Recovery and Mitigation, the RAND Corporation conducted an initial assessment of federal agencies' implementation of the guidelines. The main goal of this study was to identify the lessons learned from the opportunities and challenges encountered when implementing the guidelines. Researchers conducted semistructured interviews of 67 individuals employed by federal, state, and local government agencies and departments and nongovernmental organizations. An analysis of the interview notes and other documents provided information on different approaches to implementing the guidelines, the opportunities or challenges encountered during implementation, and whether the guidelines would be feasible to implement in nonrecovery environments. Overall, the guidelines were viewed as reflecting worthy resiliency principles that merit broader pursuit--and not just in a disaster recovery context
Patient narratives have emerged as promising vehicles for making health care more responsive by helping clinicians to better understand their patients' expectations, perceptions, or concerns and encouraging consumers to engage with information about quality. A growing number of websites incorporate patients' comments. But existing comments have fragmentary content, fail to represent less vocal patients, and can be manipulated to "manage" providers' reputations. In this article, we offer the first empirical test of the proposition that patient narratives can be elicited rigorously and reliably using a five-question protocol that can be incorporated into large-scale patient experience surveys. We tested whether elicited narratives about outpatient care are complete (report all facets of patient experience), balanced (convey an accurate mix of positive and negative events), meaningful (have a coherent storyline), and representative (draw fulsome narratives from all relevant subsets of patients). The tested protocol is strong on balance and representativeness, more mixed on completeness and meaningfulness.
We conducted a simulated clinician-choice experiment, comparing choices and decision-making processes of participants ( N = 688) randomized among four experimental arms: a conventional website reporting only quantitative performance information, a website reporting both qualitative (patient comments) and quantitative information, the second website augmented by a decision aid (labeling of patient comments), and the decision-aided website further augmented by the presence of a trained navigator. Introducing patient comments enhanced engagement with the quality information but led to a decline in decision quality, particularly the consistency of choices with consumers' stated preferences. Labeling comments helped erase the decline in decision quality, although the highest percentage of preference-congruent choices was seen in the navigator arm. Engagement with the quality information and satisfaction with choices available were likewise highest in the navigator arm. Findings held for high- and low-skilled decision makers. Thus, navigator assistance may be a promising strategy for equitably promoting higher quality choices in information-rich contexts.
In: Journal of risk research: the official journal of the Society for Risk Analysis Europe and the Society for Risk Analysis Japan, Band 23, Heft 1, S. 1-10