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The Nonlinear Dynamics of Corporate Bond Spreads: Regime-Dependent Effects of their Determinants
In: Forthcoming in: Journal of Economics and Statistics
SSRN
The Nonlinear Dynamics of Corporate Bond Spreads: Regime-Dependent Effects of Their Determinants
In: Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 08/2019
SSRN
Neuer Rechtsrahmen für die Vergabe von Strom- und Gaskonzessionen i.S.d. § 46 Abs. 2 Satz 1 EnWG
In: Recht der Energiewirtschaft: RdE, Band 17, Heft 8
ISSN: 2366-1976
Frauen im Widerstand: deutsche politische Häftlinge im Frauen-KZ Ravensbrück: Geschichte und Nachgeschichte : Ausstellungskatalog
In: Schriftenreihe der Stiftung Brandenburgische Gedenkstätten Band 62
Evaluating FOMC forecast ranges: an interval data approach
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve publishes the range of members' forecasts for key macroeconomic variables, but not the distribution of forecasts within this range. To evaluate these projections, previous papers compare the midpoint of the ranges with the realized outcome. This paper proposes a new approach to forecast evaluation that takes account of the interval nature of projections. It is shown that using the conventional Mincer-Zarnowitz approach to evaluate FOMC forecasts misses important information contained in the width of the forecast interval. This additional information plays a minor role at short forecast horizons but turns out to be of crucial importance for inflation and unemployment forecasts 18 months into the future. At long horizons the variation of members' projections contains information which is more relevant for explaining future inflation than information embodied in the midpoint.
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