Piecing it all together and forecasting who governs: The 2015 British general election
In: Electoral Studies, Band 41, S. 234-238
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In: Electoral Studies, Band 41, S. 234-238
In: Journal of elections, public opinion and parties, Band 25, Heft 2, S. 137-158
ISSN: 1745-7297
In: Electoral studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy, Band 29, Heft 4, S. 765
ISSN: 1873-6890
In: Electoral Studies, Band 29, Heft 4, S. 765
This video election note is a very brief introduction to some of the main points of interest regarding the 2010 UK general election. It touches on events since the 2005 election, the course of the campaign, the salient issues, policy differences between the main parties, key features of the outcome for the major and minor parties, turnout, government formation and the implications for British politics. There are also preliminary observations on what the pattern of constituency results tell us about how the recession and the expenses crisis affected outcomes. [Copyright Elsevier Ltd.]
In: Electoral Studies, Band 29, Heft 4
This video election note is a very brief introduction to some of the main points of interest regarding the 2010 UK general election. It touches on events since the 2005 election, the course of the campaign, the salient issues, policy differences between the main parties, key features of the outcome for the major and minor parties, turnout, government formation and the implications for British politics. There are also preliminary observations on what the pattern of constituency results tell us about how the recession and the expenses crisis affected outcomes. [Copyright Elsevier Ltd.]
In: Electoral studies: an international journal, Band 29, Heft 4, S. 765-766
ISSN: 0261-3794
In: European journal of political research: official journal of the European Consortium for Political Research, Band 48, Heft 7-8, S. 1133-1139
ISSN: 1475-6765
In: European journal of political research: official journal of the European Consortium for Political Research, Band 47, Heft 7-8, S. 1156-1164
ISSN: 1475-6765
In: Electoral Studies, Band 26, Heft 3, S. 598-611
In: Electoral Studies, Band 26, Heft 3, S. 598-611
This paper assesses the relationships between turnout and the left share of the vote, and between change in turnout and change in the left share for three data sets: national elections in 23 OECD countries 1960-2002; European Parliament elections; and British constituencies 1955-2001. The idea that higher turnout benefits the left seems to be largely mythical. There is a positive correlation between turnout and the left share in national elections across countries, but it is likely to be the result of both variables declining independently rather than a causal connection. There has also been a positive correlation between change in turnout and change in the left share of the vote in British constituencies since 1983, but only where Labour started first or second and so partly for strategic reasons. [Copyright 2006 Elsevier Ltd.]
In: European journal of political research: official journal of the European Consortium for Political Research, Band 46, Heft 7-8, S. 1134-1141
ISSN: 1475-6765
In: Electoral studies: an international journal, Band 26, Heft 2, S. 451-464
ISSN: 0261-3794
In: Electoral studies: an international journal, Band 26, Heft 3, S. 598-611
ISSN: 0261-3794
In: European journal of political research: official journal of the European Consortium for Political Research, Band 45, Heft 7-8, S. 1282-1291
ISSN: 1475-6765
In: British journal of political science, Band 34, Heft 1, S. 152-166
ISSN: 1469-2112
There has been substantial debate on the measurement of tactical voting in this Journal, much of which has actually been concerned with the definition of a tactical vote. For this reason it is necessary to go 'back to basics' to examine the notion of a tactical vote within rational choice theory and follow its implications for the measurement of tactical voting. This Note has four aims: to elucidate the formal theoretical concepts behind the notion of tactical voting; to provide a practical definition of tactical voting based on those concepts; to examine and use the implications of the theory and definition to evaluate existing measures of tactical voting; and to further appraise measures of tactical voting from general methodological considerations. This Note focuses on tactical voting in single-member simple-plurality electoral systems. The following section argues that the range of situations where it may be optimal to vote tactically is both broader and less well defined than previous authors have generally realized. This implies that both the definition, and therefore the measurement, of tactical voting rest mainly on the criteria of voting for a party other than the first choice and doing so in order to best influence who wins. The empirical section examines various approaches to the measurement of tactical voting and argues that the Heath et al. measure is a priori the most attractive available. Furthermore, detailed analysis using British Election Study (BES) data from English voters in 1987, 1992 and 1997, shows that whilst the Heath et al. measure is relatively robust, it can be usefully revised to improve consistency with the strength-of-feeling scores. A corresponding method for identifying a voter's preferred party is also presented.