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Using Spain and the Czech Republic as examples of two EU countries with different labour market performance, we apply a gross flow analysis based on EU-SILC longitudinal data. We find that while in Spain the increases in youth unemployment are driven mostly by young people who lose their jobs, in the Czech Republic, this is mainly due to new labour market entrants who failed to find a job. The analysis of flow transition rates suggests that youth labour markets with enormously high unemployment rates have not failed in all relevant respects. Their development seems to be hindered predominantly by high risk of job losses and diminishing employment prospects of the unemployed, rather than by impeded transitions from inactivity to employment. In countries with lower youth unemployment rates, unemployment policy agenda appears to be challenged by quite the opposite tendency

Using Spain and the Czech Republic as examples of two EU countries with different labour market performance, we apply a gross flow analysis based on EU-SILC longitudinal data. We find that while in Spain the increases in youth unemployment are driven mostly by young people who lose their jobs, in the Czech Republic, this is mainly due to new labour market entrants who failed to find a job. The analysis of flow transition rates suggests that youth labour markets with enormously high unemployment rates have not failed in all relevant respects. Their development seems to be hindered predominantly by high risk of job losses and diminishing employment prospects of the unemployed, rather than by impeded transitions from inactivity to employment. In countries with lower youth unemployment rates, unemployment policy agenda appears to be challenged by quite the opposite tendency.

We examine the role of unemployment inflows and outflows in contributing to unemployment cyclicality in Czechia and Poland, using data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions, and a three-state model of unemployment variance decomposition. We find that the labour market fluidity is higher in Poland than in Czechia, with Polish workers moving in and out of unemployment more frequently than their Czech counterparts. For both countries, the upward unemployment dynamics was during 2008-2011 driven by counter-cyclical increases in the job-separation rate, rather than by pro-cyclical declines in the job-finding rate. The inflow-outflow split was nonetheless more balanced in Czechia. The two economies further diverged across 2015-2018: Czech unemployment declined prevailingly due to diminishing job separations, while in Poland it was mostly due to improving job-finding prospects. This signals a deeper insider-outsider fragmentation of the Czech labour market, even during the period of economic expansion.

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We estimate the impact of unemployment duration on exits from unemployment, along with a set of individual and other explanatory variables. The analysis is based on EU-SILC longitudinal data for the period 2007–2010 and involves Spain and the Czech Republic as examples of the two EU countries with remarkably different labour market performance but similar in their totalitarian past, post-transition economies and recent EU entry. Survival functions estimates point uniformly to prolonged unemployment duration and increasing long-term unemployment. However, both these tendencies apply relatively more to the young unemployed. Estimations of hazard models indicate that shorter unemployment spells are more likely to be terminated by finding a job in comparison with spells lasting for more than one year. The hazard ratios are usually higher for prime age unemployed. Finally, we examine education, gender, household size, etc., as determinants of exits from unemployment, with uniform evidence found for university graduates only.

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