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Americans allegedly have an aversion to battle-related military casualties. Their estimates of military deaths may have influenced support for past U.S. military efforts. But what affects accurate estimates of military deaths in wartime? We review the accuracy of estimates for Iraq and three twentieth-century conflicts, finding that the public's estimates were more likely to be on target for Iraq. Then using five polls from the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, we estimate logistic regression equations in which knowledge of military deaths is regressed on variables typically employed when scholars seek to understand the factors that affect what people know about public affairs. Gender and age always emerge as significant predictors. Education and attention to the news usually matter as well. We also show that estimates of military deaths in Iraq have palpable consequences for opinions about U.S. policies there. Adapted from the source document.

Americans allegedly have an aversion to battle-related military casualties. Their estimates of military deaths may have influenced support for past U.S. military efforts. But what affects accurate estimates of military deaths in wartime? We review the accuracy of estimates for Iraq and three twentieth-century conflicts, finding that the public's estimates were more likely to be on target for Iraq. Then using five polls from the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, we estimate logistic regression equations in which knowledge of military deaths is regressed on variables typically employed when scholars seek to understand the factors that affect what people know about public affairs. Gender and age always emerge as significant predictors. Education and attention to the news usually matter as well. We also show that estimates of military deaths in Iraq have palpable consequences for opinions about U.S. policies there.

The 2004 European Parliament (EP) elections were marked by continued decline in voter turnout and wide variation in turnout levels among the member states. The addition of 10 new members for the 2004 election results presents a unique opportunity to test established explanations of turnout in EP elections. The authors re-examine models developed from general participation studies and applied in earlier research on turnout in EP elections. The updated and revised analysis continues to point to the importance of both national and European Union—level influences in explaining EP election turnout. Thus, although the second-order model of European elections still holds considerable appeal, the increasing divergence of turnout patterns in 2004 and through time suggests that European issues may be important in some countries.

This article addresses the puzzle of declining turnout in European Parliament elections. After reviewing the influential 'second order elections' explanation emphasizing domestic influences on turnout, especially Mark Franklin's (2001) recent study stressing the importance of electoral salience factors, we develop a revised model to incorporate EU as well as domestic variables. Our model indicates that EU influences, at least on the aggregate level, may have more effect on EP elections than previously reported. Tests of our model for the first five EP elections, 1979 through 1999, find that it provides an alternative explanation of turnout similar in power to Franklin's model. Because of changes in membership of the EU, our alternative model may be preferable for explaining future turnout variation in EU elections. 5 Tables, 1 Appendix, 35 References. Adapted from the source document.