Abstract. In this paper, we examine variations in climate characteristics near the area of Cortina d'Ampezzo (Dolomites, Eastern Italian Alps), with particular reference to the possible implications for debris-flow occurrence. The study area is prone to debris-flow release in response to summer high-intensity short-duration rainfalls and, therefore, it is of the utmost importance to investigate the potential increase in debris-flow triggering rainfall events. The critical rainfall threshold is agreed to be a crucial triggering factor for debris-flows. Data from a monitoring system, placed in a catchment near Cortina (Acquabona), show that debris-flows were triggered by rainfalls with peak rainfall intensities ranging from 4.9 to 17.4 mm/10 min. The analyses of meteorological data, collected from 1921 to 1994 at several stations in the study area, show a negative trend of annual rainfall, a considerable variation in the monthly rainfall distribution, and an increase in the temperature range, possibly related to global climate changes. Moreover, high-intensity and short-duration rainfall events, derived from data collected from 1990 and 2008, show an increase in exceptional rainfall events. The results obtained in a peak-over-threshold framework, applied to the rainfall data measured at the Faloria rain gauge station from 1990 to 2008, clearly show that the interarrival time of over-threshold events computed for different threshold values decreased in the last decade. This suggests that local climatic changes might produce an increase in the frequency of rainfall events, potentially triggering debris flows in the study area.
Abstract. The main aim of this paper is to test economic benefits of landslide prevention measures vs. post-event emergency actions. To this end, detailed- and large-scale analyses were performed in a training area located in the northeastern Italian pre-Alps that was hit by an exceptional rainfall event occurred in November 2010. On the detailed scale, a landslide reactivated after 2010 event was investigated. Numerical modeling demonstrated that remedial works carried out after the landslide – water-removal intervention such as a drainage trench – could have improved slope stability if applied before its occurrence. Then, a cost/benefit analysis was employed. It defined that prevention would have been economically convenient compared to a non-preventive and passive attitude, allowing a 30 % saving relative to total costs. On the large scale, one of the most affected areas after 2010 event was considered. A susceptibility analysis was performed using a simple probabilistic model, which allowed to highlight the main landslide conditioning factors and the most hazardous and vulnerable sectors. In particular, such low-cost analysis demonstrated that almost 50 % of landslides occurred after 2010 event could be foreseen and allowed to roughly quantify benefits from regional landslide prevention. However, a large-scale approach is insufficient to carry out a quantitative cost/benefit analysis, for which a detailed case-by-case risk assessment is needed. The here proposed approaches could be used as a means of preventive soil protection in not only the investigated case study but also all those hazardous areas where preventive measures are needed.
Abstract. The definition of hydrological alert systems for rainfall-induced landslides is strongly related to a deep knowledge of the geological and geomorphological features of the territory. Climatic conditions, spatial and temporal evolution of the phenomena and characterization of landslide triggering, together with propagation mechanisms, are the key elements to be considered. Critical steps for the development of the systems consist of the identification of the hydrological variable related to landslide triggering and of the minimum rainfall threshold for landslide occurrence. In this paper we report the results from a process-based model to define a hydrological alert system for the Val di Maso Landslide, located in the northeastern Italian Alps and included in the Vicenza Province (Veneto region, NE Italy). The instability occurred in November 2010, due to an exceptional rainfall event that hit the Vicenza Province and the entire NE Italy. Up to 500 mm in 3-day cumulated rainfall generated large flood conditions and triggered hundreds of landslides. During the flood, the Soil Protection Division of the Vicenza Province received more than 500 warnings of instability phenomena. The complexity of the event and the high level of risk to infrastructure and private buildings are the main reasons for deepening the specific phenomenon occurred at Val di Maso. Empirical and physically-based models have been used to identify the minimum rainfall threshold for the occurrence of instability phenomena in the crown area of Val di Maso landslide, where a retrogressive evolution by multiple rotational slides is expected. Empirical models helped in the identification and in the evaluation of recurrence of critical rainfall events, while physically-based modelling was essential to verify the effects on the slope stability of determined rainfall depths. Empirical relationships between rainfall and landslide consist of the calculation of rainfall Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves, which allow one to determine rainfall depth (or intensity) as a function of duration for given return periods or probabilities of exceedance (frequencies). Physically-based modelling was performed through coupled seepage and slope stability analyses. Combining results from empirical and physically-based modelling, the minimum alert threshold for a reactivation of the phenomenon was found in rainfall cumulated up to 60 days with a return period of 2 yr. These results were used to set up a hydrological alert system based on the calibration of DDF curves which can be used as a sort of abacus to plot in real time rainfall depths and to set increasing levels of alert on the basis of the degree of exceptionality of rainfall. The alert system for Val di Maso was successfully tested by the rainfall events that produced displacements which have been recorded by extensometers placed in the crown area after the November 2010 landslide. However, further tests are recommendable to improve the process-based model that led to the implementation of the alert system. To this end, a monitoring system is currently being realized. In the near future, monitoring data will help in testing and improving landslide evolution and alert models. The proposed hydrological alert system proves to be effective mainly because it can be applied to different scales of investigation and geological and geomorphological contexts. In fact, it might also be applicable to territorial scale analyses, as showed by the brief example provided in this paper on how the alert system could be used for landslide early warning in the area surrounding Val di Maso. Furthermore, it is easy to set up. The needed components are a rain gauge station, a software that compares rainfall data to rainfall events with different return periods and degree of alert, and a transmission system of the warning levels to authorities.
AbstractDecision-support tools (DSTs) synthesize complex information to assist environmental managers in the decision-making process. Here, we review DSTs applied in the Baltic Sea area, to investigate how well the ecosystem approach is reflected in them, how different environmental problems are covered, and how well the tools meet the needs of the end users. The DSTs were evaluated based on (i) a set of performance criteria, (ii) information on end user preferences, (iii) how end users had been involved in tool development, and (iv) what experiences developers/hosts had on the use of the tools. We found that DSTs frequently addressed management needs related to eutrophication, biodiversity loss, or contaminant pollution. The majority of the DSTs addressed human activities, their pressures, or environmental status changes, but they seldom provided solutions for a complete ecosystem approach. In general, the DSTs were scientifically documented and transparent, but confidence in the outputs was poorly communicated. End user preferences were, apart from the shortcomings in communicating uncertainty, well accounted for in the DSTs. Although end users were commonly consulted during the DST development phase, they were not usually part of the development team. Answers from developers/hosts indicate that DSTs are not applied to their full potential. Deeper involvement of end users in the development phase could potentially increase the value and impact of DSTs. As a way forward, we propose streamlining the outputs of specific DSTs, so that they can be combined to a holistic insight of the consequences of management actions and serve the ecosystem approach in a better manner.
Abstract. In this paper, spatial data available in the Italian portals was used to evaluate the landslide susceptibility of the Euganean Hills Regional Park, located SW of Padua (northeastern Italy). Quality, applicability and possible analysis scales of the online data were investigated. After a brief overview on the WebGIS portals around the world, their contents and tools for natural risk analyses, a susceptibility analysis of the study area was carried out using a simple probabilistic approach that compared landslide distribution and influencing factors. The input factors used in the analysis depended on available data and included landslides, morphometric data (elevation, slope, curvature, profile and plan Curvature) and non-morphometric data (land use, distance to roads and distance to rivers). Great attention was paid to the pre-processing step, in particular the re-classification of continuous data that was performed following objective, geologic and geomorphologic criteria. The results of the study show that the simple probabilistic approach used for the susceptibility evaluation showed quite good accuracy and precision (repeatability). However, heuristic, statistical or deterministic methods could be applied to the online data to improve the prediction. The data available online for the Italian territory allows susceptibility assessment at medium and large scales. Morphometric factors, such as elevation and slope angle, are important because they implicitly include information that is not available, such as lithologic and structural data. The main drawback of the Italian online databases is the lack of information on the frequency of landslides; thus, a complete hazard analysis is not possible. Despite the good results achieved to date, collection and sharing of data on natural risks must be improved in Italy and around the world. The creation of spatial data infrastructure and more WebGIS portals is desirable.
Abstract. On 9 October 1963 a catastrophic landslide suddenly occurred on the southern slope of the Vaiont dam reservoir. A mass of approximately 270 million m3 collapsed into the reservoir generating a wave that overtopped the dam and hit the town of Longarone and other villages nearby. Several investigations and interpretations of the slope collapse have been carried out during the last 45 years, however, a comprehensive explanation of both the triggering and the dynamics of the phenomenon has yet to be provided. In order to re-evaluate the currently existing information on the slide, an electronic bibliographic database and an ESRI-geodatabase have been developed. The chronology of the collected documentation showed that most of the studies for re-evaluating the failure mechanisms were conducted in the last decade, as a consequence of knowledge, methods and techniques recently acquired. The current contents of the geodatabase will improve definition of the structural setting that influenced the slide and led to the the propagation of the displaced rock mass. The objectives, structure and contents of the e-bibliography and Geodatabase are indicated, together with a brief description on the possible use of the alphanumeric and spatial contents of the databases.
Decision support tools (DSTs), like models, GIS-based planning tools and assessment tools, play an important role in incorporating scientific information into decision-making and facilitating policy implementation. In an interdisciplinary Baltic research group, we compiled 43 DSTs developed to support ecosystem-based management of the Baltic Sea and conducted a thorough review. Analyzed DSTs cover a wide variety of policy issues (e.g., eutrophication, biodiversity, human uses) and address environmental as well as socio-economic aspects. In this study, we aim to identify gaps between existing DSTs and end-user needs for DSTs for supporting coastal and marine policy implementation, and to provide recommendations for future DST development. In two online surveys, we assess the awareness and use of DSTs in general, as well as policy implementation challenges and DST needs of representatives of public authorities from all Baltic countries, in particular. Through a policy review we identify major policy issues, policies, and general implementation steps and requirements and develop the synthesis-matrix, which is used to compare DST demand and supply. Our results show that DSTs are predominantly used by researchers. End-users from public authorities use DSTs mostly as background information. Major obstacles for DST use are lacking awareness and experiences. DST demand is strongest for the policy issue eutrophication. Furthermore, DSTs that support the development of plans or programs of measures and assess their impacts and effectiveness are needed. DST supply is low for recently emerging topics, such as non-indigenous species, marine litter, and underwater noise. To overcome existing obstacles, a common database for DSTs available in the BSR is needed. Furthermore, end-users need guidance and training, and cooperation between DST developers and end-users needs to be enhanced to ensure the practical relevance of DSTs for supporting coastal and marine policy implementation. To fill existing gaps, DSTs that address impacts on human welfare and link environmental and socio-economic aspects should be developed. The Baltic Sea Region serves as a best practice case for studying DSTs and their practical use. Hence, our results can provide insights for DST development in other marine regions. Furthermore, our methodological approach is transferable to other areas.
We present the first measurements of femtoscopic correlations between the KS0 and K± particles in pp collisions at √s=7 TeV measured by the ALICE experiment. The observed femtoscopic correlations are consistent with final-state interactions proceeding solely via the a0(980) resonance. The extracted kaon source radius and correlation strength parameters for KS0K− are found to be equal within the experimental uncertainties to those for KS0K+. Results of the present study are compared with those from identical-kaon femtoscopic studies also performed with pp collisions at √s=7 TeV by ALICE and with a KS0K± measurement in Pb–Pb collisions at √sNN=2.76 TeV. Combined with the Pb–Pb results, our pp analysis is found to be compatible with the interpretation of the a0(980) having a tetraquark structure instead of that of a diquark. ; A.I. Alikhanyan National Science Laboratory (Yerevan Physics Institute) Foundation (ANSL), State Committee of Science and World Federation of Scientists (WFS), Armenia; Austrian Academy of Sciences and Nationalstiftung für Forschung, Technologie und Entwicklung, Austria; Ministry of Communications and High Technologies, National Nuclear Research Center, Azerbaijan; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq), Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos (Finep) and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP), Brazil; Ministry of Science & Technology of China (MSTC), National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) and Ministry of Education of China (MOEC), China; Ministry of Science and Education, Croatia; Centro de Aplicaciones Tecnológicas y Desarrollo Nuclear (CEADEN), Cubaenergía, Cuba; Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic, Czech Republic; The Danish Council for Independent Research Natural Sciences, the Carlsberg Foundation and Danish National Research Foundation (DNRF), Denmark; Helsinki Institute of Physics (HIP), Finland; Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique (CEA) and Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules (IN2P3) and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), France; Bundesministerium für Bildung, Wissenschaft, Forschung und Technologie (BMBF) and GSI Helmholtzzentrum für Schwerionenforschung GmbH, Germany; General Secretariat for Research and Technology, Ministry of Education, Research and Religions, Greece; National Research, Development and Innovation Office, Hungary; Department of Atomic Energy, Government of India (DAE), Department of Science and Technology, Government of India (DST), University Grants Commission, Government of India (UGC) and Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), India; Indonesian Institute of Sciences, Indonesia; Centro Fermi – Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche Enrico Fermi and Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN), Italy; Institute for Innovative Science and Technology, Nagasaki Institute of Applied Science (IIST), Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI and Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan; Consejo Nacional de Ciencia (CONACYT) y Tecnología, through Fondo de Cooperación Internacional en Ciencia y Tecnología (FONCICYT) and Dirección General de Asuntos del Personal Academico (DGAPA), Mexico; Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (NWO), Netherlands; The Research Council of Norway, Norway; Commission on Science and Technology for Sustainable Development in the South (COMSATS), Pakistan; Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, Peru; Ministry of Science and Higher Education and National Science Centre, Poland; Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information and National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF), Republic of Korea; Ministry of Education and Scientific Research, Institute of Atomic Physics and Romanian National Agency for Science, Technology and Innovation, Romania; Joint Institute for Nuclear Research (JINR), Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation and National Research Centre Kurchatov Institute, Russia; Ministry of Education, Science, Research and Sport of the Slovak Republic, Slovakia; National Research Foundation of South Africa, South Africa; Swedish Research Council (VR) and Knut & Alice Wallenberg Foundation (KAW), Sweden; European Organization for Nuclear Research, Switzerland; National Science and Technology Development Agency (NSDTA), Suranaree University of Technology (SUT) and Office of the Higher Education Commission under NRU project of Thailand, Thailand; Turkish Atomic Energy Agency (TAEK), Turkey; National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Ukraine; Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC), United Kingdom; National Science Foundation of the United States of America (NSF) and United States Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Physics (DOE NP), United States of America.