Suchergebnisse

"Explaining Long-Term Trends in Health and Longevity is a collection of essays by Nobel laureate Robert W. Fogel on the theory and measurement of ageing and health-related variables. Dr Fogel analyzes historic data on height, health, nutrition and life expectation to provide a clearer understanding of the past, illustrate the costs and benefits of using such measures and note the difficulties of drawing conclusions from data intended for different purposes. Dr Fogel explains how the basic findings of the anthropomorphic approach to historical analysis have helped reinterpret the nature of economic growth. Rising life expectancies and lower disease rates in countries experiencing economic growth highlight the importance of improving nutrition and agricultural productivity"--

"This paper addresses three issues related to the relative rates of growth in the United States, the European Union, and China during the four decades between 2000 and 2040. The first concerns the source of the factors which make it likely that China will continue to grow at a high rate for another generation. The paper argues that this growth will be the result of both favorable economic and political conditions. The second concerns the source of declining GDP growth in the original fifteen nations of the European Union. For these countries, the underlying cause is due in large measure to low fertility rates and an increase in the dependency ratio. The third issue is the projection of long-term U.S. growth in GDP at a rate of 3.7 percent per annum"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site

While the economies of the fifteen countries that were in the European Union (EU15) in 2000 will continue to grow from now until 2040, they will not be able to match the surges in growth that will occur in South and East Asia. In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the output of the entire globe in the year 2000, despite the influence of several potential political and economic constraints. India's economy will also continue to grow, although significant constraints (both political and economic) will keep it from reaching China's levels. The projected decline of the EU15's global share of GDP means that liberal Asian nations will be poised to take up the role of promoting liberal democracy across the globe.

"Longitudinal studies support the proposition that the extent and severity of chronic conditions in middle and late ages are to a large extent the outcome of environmental insults at early ages, including in utero. Data from the Early Indicators program project undertaken at the Center for Population Economics suggest that the range of differences in exposure to disease has narrowed greatly over the course of the twentieth century, that age-specific prevalence rates of chronic diseases were much lower at the end of the twentieth century than they were at the beginning of the last century or during the last half of the nineteenth century, and that there has been a significant delay in the onset of chronic diseases over the course of the twentieth century. These trends appear to be related to changes in levels of environmental hazards and in body size. These findings have led investigators to posit a synergism between technological and physiological improvements. This synergism has contributed to reductions in inequality in real income, body size, and life expectancy during the twentieth century"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site

A compelling new study from Nobel laureate Robert Fogel, examining health, nutrition and technology over the last three centuries and beyond. It will be essential reading for all those interested in economics, demography, history and health care policy