Suchergebnisse

Acquiring effective and efficient materiel solutions that support naval missions is critical to meeting Department of the Navy (DON) objectives. Maintaining readiness of the current Navy to fight and win; accelerating delivery of war-fighting capability for the next Navy; and researching and transitioning new technologies for the Navy after next all require that DON maintain a healthy acquisition workforce that is large enough and qualified enough to be smart buyers over 30+ year time horizons. The naval acquisition workforce faces losses of experience and capacity as the current workforce ages and retires, as knowledge half-life diminishes relevance of current skills and experience, and as a tightening labor market draws government employees to the private sector. Leaders throughout DON are challenged to identify and implement actionable levers to sustain required workforce capability and capacity. This study developed a realistic simulation model of a portion of the naval acquisition workforce and demonstrated its potential use in workforce planning and management. ; Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Program

Acquiring effective and efficient materiel solutions that support naval missions and other operations is critical to meeting Department of the Navy (DON) objectives. This requires that the Navy maintain an acquisition workforce that is large enough and qualified enough to fill acquisition demands. The naval acquisition workforce faces losses of experience and capacity as the current workforce ages and retires, as knowledge half-life diminishes relevance of current skills and experience, and as a tightening labor market draws government employees to the private sector. This study developed a realistic simulation model of a portion of the naval acquisition workforce and demonstrated its potential use in workforce planning and management. ; Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Program

AbstractTipping point feedback structures can push a series of product development projects into fire‐fighting mode in which rework overwhelms progress. Similar dynamics also threaten the performance of individual development projects. The current work extends previous tipping point dynamics research to single projects and demonstrates how a simple, common feedback structure can cause complex tipping point dynamics, trap projects in deteriorating modes of behavior, and cause projects to fail. Basic tipping point dynamics in single projects are described, demonstrated, and analyzed with a model. The concept of applying robustness to project design is preliminarily tested and system robustness to tipping point‐induced failure is quantified for a simple project and analyzed with sensitivity analysis. Impacts of tipping points on project performance and future research opportunities concerning tipping point and robustness in project management are discussed. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Proceedings Paper (for Acquisition Research Program) ; Providing system interoperability and evolving technologies in major DoD systems are two important acquisition challenges in preparing the military to meet current and future demands. The Acoustic Rapid COTS Insertion (ARCI) program successfully addressed many of the associated challenges. That program was studied as the basis for modeling the planned Rapid Capability Insertion Process (RCIP) approach for continuous, reduced-cost upgrading of assets. ARCI used atypical methods in the face of atypical program requirements and conditions. A previously developed acquisition program model was adapted to reflect ARCI and used for model validation. This model was then changed to reflect the basic conditions expected to be faced by RCIP programs. The model demonstrated the potential of RCIP to significantly improve program performance. However, implementation risks are identified that may degrade potential performance, including increased oversight, the use of more new development, and the resulting integration scope and risk. When incorporated into the model, these risks were shown to significantly decrease RCIP performance. Means for successfully managing the RCIP design based on the ACRI program and RCIP operations are suggested for use in addressing the identified implementation risks. ; Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Program ; Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

AbstractThe critical role of water infrastructure systems in sustainable development and the limitations of supply management have increased the importance of demand management in meeting water needs. As an integral part of demand management in water‐stressed regions, water allocation policies address the competition among user groups for scarce water resources. This paper presents a dynamic simulation model of a water system in semi‐arid regions and analyses the effectiveness of allocation policies in meeting two objectives: satisfy current demands and preserve adequate supply for future use. Field data identified risk aversion in managers, as reflected in their allocation policies, as a potentially important influence on policy effectiveness. The model was tested with data and policies from the island of Cyprus. Sensitivity analyses reveal the important role of managerial expectations and responses to supply and demand in determining system performance. Analysis of water allocation policies revealed that the level of risk in policies shifts performance between satisfying current demands and protecting against future drought conditions. Potential changes by managers for improved performance and research needs are discussed. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

AbstractOne of the most successful areas for the application of system dynamics has been project management. Measured in terms of new system dynamics theory, new and improved model structures, number of applications, number of practitioners, value of consulting revenues, and value to clients, "project dynamics" stands as an example of success in the field. This paper reviews the history of project management applications in the context of the underlying structures that create adverse dynamics and their application to specific areas of project management, synthesizes the policy messages, and provides directions for future research and writing. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

AbstractPublic goods and services such as prisons are often underfunded compared with private goods and services. Social impact bonds (SIBs) are a new financial vehicle to increase the use of private funds for public good. SIBs use a paid‐for‐success, performance‐based structure to reallocate risk and reward. In the current case, the SIB changes a critical reinforcing loop from a vicious cycle of decay to a virtuous cycle of improvement that can perpetuate SIB benefits far after the bond has been repaid. A simulation model of recidivism at Her Majesty's Prison (HMP) Peterborough and the related SIB is developed to identify high‐leverage parameters and dominant feedback loops. These are used to explain SIB success or failure for two primary participants (HMP system and SIB investors). Model analysis also reveals a tipping point structure that puts the Peterborough programme at risk. Contributions include a formal SIB model, improved understanding of SIB structure and behaviour, an example of tipping point structures in a social system and recommendations concerning SIB design and management.

Acquisition Research Case Study ; Three different technologies were considered in the technology development phase of the Javelin anti-tank missile system: a laser-beam riding system, a fiberoptic system, and a forward looking infrared system. The Army awarded three "Proof of Principle" contracts to three competing contractor teams to develop and conduct a "fly-off" technology competition. The current work analyzed the three alternatives using measures of effectiveness (MOE) to combine performance across nine acquisition objectives. These MOEs were compared with development and procurement cost estimates. No alternative dominated. Marginal benefits analysis was next used to define the trade–off space among the alternatives. Differences in the likelihood of successful development of the alternatives were evaluated, resulting in one technology appearing to dominate. However, the acquisition approach created a real option for the best alternative that could differentially add value to the alternatives. A real options model was used to analyze the value provided by investing in this competitive option. Results indicate the Army paid less than the total value of the three options, but could have increased net savings by paying different amounts to test each alternative. The analysis method provides a logical and defendable approach to the analysis of alternatives during technology development uncertainty. ; Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Program ; Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.