Suchergebnisse

Asylum-related migration is highly complex, uncertain, and volatile, which precludes using standard model-based predictions to inform policy and operational decisions. At the same time, asylum's potentially high societal impacts on receiving countries and the resource implications of asylum processes call for more proactive approaches for assessing current and future migration flows. In this article, we propose an alternative approach to asylum modeling, based on the detection of early warning signals by using models originating from statistical control theory. Our empirical analysis of several asylum flows into Europe in 2010–2016 demonstrates the approach's utility and potential in aiding the management of mixed migration flows, while also shedding more light on the work needed to make better use of the "big data" and scenario-based methods for comprehensive and systematic examination of risk, uncertainty, and emerging trends.

Age and sex patterns of migration are essential for understanding drivers of population change and heterogeneity of migrant groups. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate such patterns for international migration in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2008, which was a period of time when the number of members expanded from 19 to 31 countries. Our model corrects for the inadequacies and inconsistencies in the available data and estimates the missing patterns. The posterior distributions of the age and sex profiles are then combined with a matrix of origin-destination flows, resulting in a synthetic database with measures of uncertainty for migration flows and other model parameters.

Age and sex patterns of migration are essential for understanding drivers of population change and heterogeneity of migrant groups. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate such patterns for international migration in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2008, which was a period of time when the number of members expanded from 19 to 31 countries. Our model corrects for the inadequacies and inconsistencies in the available data and estimates the missing patterns. The posterior distributions of the age and sex profiles are then combined with a matrix of origin–destination flows, resulting in a synthetic database with measures of uncertainty for migration flows and other model parameters.