Suchergebnisse

Models fiscal policy interactions between fiscal authorities and private
investors in the foreign exchange market in a game‐theoretic framework.
Using a two‐period game, I consider the credible and noncredible
announcements of the domestic fiscal authority with respect to the
stance of its future fiscal policy. Each country faces a trade‐off
between its current account and budget deficit objectives and
time‐inconsistency arises due to lack of a sufficient number of policy
instruments. For this game I derive explicitly the time consistent and
precommitment policies for the domestic fiscal authority and explain
that precommitment is welfare improving relative to the time‐consistent
policy. In a two‐country framework, both precommitment with respect to
the private sector and co‐operation between the two policymakers tend to
improve welfare.

AbstractThis paper focuses on economic policy uncertainty spillovers across Europe, before and after the outburst of the Eurozone crisis, using data for seven Eurozone countries for the period 2003–2019. At first, we analyze the spillovers of uncertainty in Europe via the estimation of the Diebold‐Yilmaz spillover index. The results indicate that uncertainty connectedness was 50.5% before the crisis, while it dropped to 30.6% afterwards indicating a sharp drop in uncertainty spillovers across the seven Eurozone countries. We also find that the importance of domestic causes in national uncertainty has increased during the crisis at the expense of imported factors. Dynamic net spillovers reveal that core Eurozone countries are uncertainty exporters before the crisis, while periphery countries transmit uncertainty to other countries during the crisis. An examination of the country which suffered the most during the crisis, using impulse response analysis, reveals that the Greek macroeconomic indicators (stock market, GDP, unemployment, and the Economic Sentiment Index) were affected more by domestic, rather than European uncertainty. The highest responses are indicated during the crisis. Overall, there is positive interdependence between Greek and European uncertainty, which diminishes during the crisis.

We use a very general bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity‐in‐mean model and G7 monthly data covering the 1957–2003 period to test for the impact of real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Our evidence supports a number of important conclusions. First, in most countries output growth uncertainty is a positive determinant of the output growth rate. Second, there is mixed evidence regarding the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Hence, contrary to popular belief, uncertainty about the inflation rate is not necessarily detrimental to economic growth but in some cases it may also enhance growth. Finally, there is mixed evidence on the effect of output uncertainty on inflation. In sum, our results indicate that macroeconomic uncertainty may even improve macroeconomic performance.

By utilizing the techniques of multivariate cointegration and error correctionmodels, we investigate the impact of the different exchange rate regimes that spannedthe twentieth century on the bilateral exports between the UK and the USA over thelast 99 years. Our results support two conclusions. First, fixed exchange rate regimesand managed float exchange rate regimes are equally conducive to trade. Second, freely floating exchange rate regimes are more conducive to trade than fixed exchange rateregimes.

The paper tests for long‐run monetary policy convergence and short‐run policy interactions in seven ERM countries over the 1979‐1992 period using the approach of multivariate cointegration and Granger‐causality tests. The authors provide evidence for very little monetary policy convergence, even during the more stable 1987‐92 period. Tests for short‐run monetary policy interactions show that, in agreement with some other studies, Germany is not the leader country in the system as it appears to accommodate shocks in other member countries. The tests show also that full monetary policy convergence applied among Germany, Belgium and The Netherlands in the 1987‐92 period implies that these countries could be the first to join a European monetary union should a two‐speed approach to monetary union become a reality.

We use a cross-section, time-series approach to study the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the European Union (EU) with particular emphasis on the expectations of a single market following the Single European Act of 1987. Using annual data from the 1980s and early 1990s, we investigate the determinants of US and Japanese FDI in the EU by pooling the data by the host country. We find strong evidence in favour of a single market effect where the anticipation of a larger market size due to a barriers free European market leads to an increase in the inflows of FDI. In addition, our estimation results show that FDI flows in the EU also depend on market size and the real exchange rate (as a proxy of relative labour costs). (Journal of Common Market Studies / FUB)

Abstract
This paper attempts to test for inflation convergence in a sample of 24 European Union countries. To tackle this issue, first- and second-generation panel unit root and stationarity tests are employed so as to provide evidence of inflation convergence before and after the launch of the single currency, the euro. We also test for and then allow for cross-sectional dependence. In general, the findings reveal that conditional inflation convergence exists for all panels under study. The estimation of half lives shows that the evidence for faster speed of convergence applies for the new member states followed by the core countries and the old member states.
JEL classifications: C33, E3, F33
Keywords: Inflation Convergence, EU, Maastricht Criteria, Panel data

We use recently developed cointegration tests that determine the regime shift endogenously to test for bilateral real interest rate convergence (real interest rate parity) in the G7 against the USA in the 1974–95 period. In contrast with previous studies that employed classical regression analysis and standard cointegration tests, our innovative approach provides strong evidence in favour of bilateral real interest rate convergence between the USA and several countries in our sample, in particular for short‐term real interest rates. Our results highlight the fact that for a number of countries in our sample (Canada and the UK) monetary policy can act as a stabilization policy tool through its effect on domestic long‐term real interest rates, while for others (France and Germany) long‐term real interest rate changes are influenced by the US monetary policy stance.

We use cointegration tests that determine endogenously the regime shift to test for bilateral short‐term and long‐term real interest rate convergence in the European Monetary System in the 1979–1993 period. The results of these tests provide strong evidence in favour of bilateral real interest rate convergence between Germany and several countries in our sample, particularly for long‐term real interest rates. This result carries the important policy implication that in several European countries monetary policy has lost some of its effectiveness as a stabilisation policy tool.

AbstractWe examine the empirical relationship between output variability and output growth for Britain using data for eight centuries covering the 1270 to 2014 period. Drawing on the economic history literature, we split the full sample period into four subperiods and use GARCH models to measure output growth uncertainty and estimate its effect on average growth. Within each sub‐sample, we allow output growth to depend on the state of the system, for example 2‐regime switching model would switch between high‐growth and low‐growth regimes. We find that the effect of uncertainty on growth differs depending on the existing growth regime. Low‐growth regimes are associated with a negative effect of uncertainty on growth, and medium or high‐growth regimes are associated with a positive effect. These findings are consistent across the four states of economic development. Our results indicate why the empirical literature to date has found mixed results when examining the effect of uncertainty on growth.

AbstractWe examine the empirical relationship between output variability and output growth using quarterly data for the 1961–2000 period for the Japanese economy. Using three different specifications of GARCH models, namely, Bollerslev's model, Taylor/Schwert's model, and Nelson's EGARCH model, we obtain two important results. First, we find robust evidence that the "in‐mean" coefficient is not statistically significant. This evidence is consistent with Speight's (1999) analysis of UK data and implies that output variability does not affect output growth. In other words, this finding supports several real business cycle theories of economic fluctuations. Second, we find no evidence of asymmetry between output variability and growth, a result consistent with Hamori (2000).