The parliamentary election of 10 March 1974 was marked by a great steadiness of the electorate. The vote movements, which could nevertheless be observed, consisted, on the one part, in an advance of the Christian Democrats in Flanders and in Wallonia and, on the other part, in a generalized receding of the community parties. The backward move wasrather obvious for the FDF in Brussels, less evident for the RassemblementWallon and the slightest for the Volksunie. The Socialists gained ground in Wallonia but receded in Flanders, whereas an inverse situation characterized the Liberal lists.It appears rather clearly that the personality of the candidates played a large part in this election. Same well-known candidates scored a great number of votes.Although the Belgian electorate very largely confirmed its choice of 1971, it seems that the community problems failed to catch the voter's attention as they had in the past ; moreover a certain return to the traditional political families could be observed under the influence of the economical, social and ethical problems.
In Belgium both the European & regional council elections were held on the same day. This article presents an analysis of the results from three different perspectives. First, the 2004 results are compared with the results regarding election of the same assemblies five years ago. Second, the results of the regional elections are compared with the results of the European elections. Third, the 2004 results are compared with the results from the parliamentary elections of 2003. These comparative results demonstrate a gain in far-right popularity with a decrease in liberal support in the first analysis, a close proximity between the Belgian regional elections & the European elections in the second analysis, & again a reinforcement of the far Right to the loss of moderate parties in the third analysis. The general trends reflected herein are treated to conclude that that while there is only a slight degree of difference in the results for the regional & European elections, there are convergent elements in Flanders & Wallonia but sometimes divergent elements in Brussels. Overall there can be observed a setback for the Left, an advance of Christian socialists, & a solid progress of the extreme Right. This electoral image of Belgium is suggested to portray a discontent electorate moving to the extreme Right in the absence of an extreme Left, a phenomenon which is not uniformly the case across Europe. These items are presented in statistical detail here. 10 Tables. C. Brunski
After four years of a so called «Rainbow» coalition, which had the support of the Socialists (red), the Liberals (blue) and the Greens, the electorate rewarded the first two political families and inflicted a crushing defeat on the Greens. The latter lost nearly 60 % of their electorate, which had occurred only once before to a political party since the introduction of universal suffrage in Belgium in 1919. The outcome of the elections is fairly similar in the three regions of the country.In Flanders, the Socialists progress by more than 8 %, reaping the benefits of the alliance formed with «Spirit», one of the successor parties of the former Volksunie. Half of the Socialists' progress can be attributed to this effect. Moreover, the Socialist party started off from an absolute low hit in 1999 and has not regained its top scores of the 1960s. The advance of the Liberal VLD is more modest, (some 2.5 %), but it followed upon excellent previous results. With some 25 % of the vote, the VLD, which is the first party in Flanders, has reached an absolute high.Conversely, the Christian Democrats of the CD&V slightly regress, thereby continuing a downward trend. These results take them to their historical low, and make them into Flanders ' third party, with some 21.9 % of the vote. Agalev, the Green party, no langer has any representation in parliarnent and falls back from11 to 3.85 %. The far right, the Vlaams Blok, continues its advance and reaches 17,86 %, an increase of2,5 %.In Wallonia too one observes a significant advance of the Socialists. The PS remains the first party in the South of the country with 36.39 % of the vote, progressing by 7 %. It exceeds all its results of the previous twelve years, without however reaching its earlier highs. The Liberals of the Mouvement Réformateur (MR) gain 3.65 % and are at their historical high with 28.38 % of the vote. The Christian Democrats, under the denomination CDH (Centre democrate humaniste) slip back by some 1.5 %, but this decline is almost equivalent to the result of a dissident list of the CDH, which had wanted to maintain «christian» as a reference. This doesn't alter the fact that the Christian Democrats have also reached their all time low.The Greens, Ecolo, lose some 57 % of their vote and stand at 7.45 %. In contrast with 1999, one observes a slight advance ofthe Front National, a far right party, that only obtained 5.56 % of the vote however. With the exception ofan increase in the French and a decline in the Flemish vote, the Brussels districts show the same characteristics as the two other regions of the country; a very significant advance of the Socialists, a slight increase in the Liberal vote, the collapse of the Greens; the status quo ofthe Christian Democrats and an advance of the far right with almost 2 %.The 2003 election therefore seems to be a correction on the 1999 one, where the advance of the greens had been amplified by the dioxineJood scare. But the width of the swing makes it into one of the elections where the volatility of the vote will have been the highest.
After four years of a so-called "Rainbow" coalition, which had the support of the Socialists (red), the Liberals (blue), & the Greens, the electorate rewarded the first two political families & inflicted a crushing defeat on the Greens. The latter lost nearly 60% of their electorate, which had occurred only once before to a political party since the introduction of universal suffrage in Belgium in 1919. The outcome of the elections is fairly similar in the three regions of the country. In Flanders, the Socialists progress by more than 8%, reaping the benefits of the alliance formed with "Spirit." Half of the Socialists' progress can be attributed to this effect. The advance of the Liberal VLD is more modest (some 2.5%), but it followed on excellent previous results. With some 25% of the vote, the VLD, which is the first party in Flanders, has reached an absolute high. Conversely, the Christian Democrats of the CD&V slightly regress, thereby continuing a downward trend. These results take them to their historical low, & make them into Flanders' third party, with some 21.9% of the vote. Agalev, the Green party, no longer has any representation in parliament & falls back from 11 to 3.85%. The far Right, the Vlaams Blok, continues its advance & reaches 17.86%, an increase of 2.5%. In Wallonia too, one observes a significant advance of the Socialists. The PS remains the first party in the South of the country with 36.39% of the vote, progressing by 7%. It exceeds all its results of the previous 12 years, without however reaching its earlier highs. The Liberals of the Mouvement Reformateur (MR) gain 3.65% & are at their historical high with 28.38% of the vote. The Christian Democrats, under the denomination CDH (Centre democrate humaniste) slip back by some 1.5%, but this decline is almost equivalent to the result of a dissident list of the CDH, which had wanted to maintain "Christian" as a reference. This doesn't alter the fact that the Christian Democrats have also reached their all time low. The Greens, Ecolo, lose some 57% of their vote & stand at 7.45%. In contrast with 1999, one observes a slight advance of the Front National, a far Right party, that only obtained 5.56% of the vote however. With the exception of an increase in the French & a decline in the Flemish vote, the Brussels districts show the same characteristics as the two other regions of the country; a very significant advance of the Socialists, a slight increase in the Liberal vote, the collapse of the Greens; the status quo of the Christian Democrats & an advance of the far Right with almost 2%. The 2003 election therefore seems to be a correction on the 1999 one, where the advance of the Greens had been amplified by the dioxine food scare. But the width of the swing makes it into one of the elections where the volatility of the vote will have been the highest. 8 Tables. Adapted from the source document.
On October 8th 2000 municipal elections were held in Belgium to renew the local councils which had been elected in 1994. In the Walloon region and in Flanders in addition provincial elections were organised. The aim of the article is to try and measure globally where the political forces stand after these elections and among others to assess whether significant swings have take place since june 13th, 1999, when the latest parliamentary and regional elections took place. On the basis of an estimation of the global results in the municipal elections of the various parties in the Walloon region, in Flanders and in Brussels, backed up by the actual results of the provincial elections, one can say that the liberal group bas strengthened its first position.The Christian democrats, who make up the second most important political group and the Socialists, who rank third, have regained a large part of the losses they incurred onjune 13th, 1999.Although improving their results in comparison with 1994, the Green parties lost again part of their advance they registered in the parliamentary and regional elections and which had probably been boosted by the dioxin crisis.The frenchspeaking far right practically disappears, whereas the Vlaams Blok obtained an average of 15 % of the Flemish electorate in the municipal and provincial elections, a level which it had reached in the 1999 parliamentary elections.
On 8 Oct 2000, municipal elections were held in Belgium to renew the local councils that had been elected in 1994. In the Walloon region & in Flanders, provincial elections were organized as well. The aim of the article is to measure globally where the political forces stood after these elections & assess whether significant swings had taken place since 13 June 1999, when the latest parliamentary & regional elections were held. On the basis of an estimation of the global results in the municipal elections of the various parties in the Walloon region, in Flanders, & in Brussels, backed up by the actual results of the provincial elections, one can say that the liberal group strengthened its position. The Christian Democrats, the second most important political group, & the Socialists, who ranked third, regained a large part of the losses they had incurred in June 1999. Although improving their results in comparison with 1994, the Green parties lost strength. The French-speaking far Right practically disappeared, whereas the Vlaams Blok obtained an average of 15% of the Flemish electorate in the municipal & provincial elections, the level it had reached in the 1999 parliamentary elections. 5 Tables. Adapted from the source document.
On june 13th, the Belgian voters had to choose their representatives in four assemblies: the European Parliament, the Chamber of Representatives, the Senate, and the Regional Council of either the Flemish, the Walloon or the Brussels Capital regions accordingly.Thus these elections made it possible to measure possible differences in the results a same list obtained in the different polls. These differences could be observed for some lists, but not for all and were essentially due to the personality of certain candidates rather than to a political will to differentiate, with the exception perhaps of the Ecologists, who traditionally perform better in European elections.These elections also saw an increased use of computer based voting: some 44 % of the registered voters had to express their choice via a computer screen. As a consequence one observed a sensitive drop in "blank and spoilt" ballots.The elections have been characterized by several phenomena. First, there was a marked decline, amounting to some 10 % of the votes, in the support for the parties of the outgoing majority: christian democrats and socialists. In losing each somewhat less than 5 %, they have both hit their historical low and together no langer hold a simpte majority in Parliament.The liberal family bas become the largest in Belgium, which had never accured since the introduction of the single vote system (1919). This first position was conquered more through the decline in the results of the socialists and the christian democrats than via a true advance of the liberals. Though the Flemish component of the liberals progressed by 1.14 %, the French-speaking wing receded by 0.13 %.The overall winners of the elections are the ecologists who on the whole climb from 8. 44 % to 14.36 %. This progression is ho wever proportionately much more marked for the French-speaking component (Ecolo) than for the Flemish part (Agalev). Ecolo bas become the thirdmost important party of Wallonia and the second one in Brussels, whereas Agalev remains the fifth party in Flanders.The extremist parties have had diverging results. The extreme left remains altogether very marginal in Belgium (about 1 %) , whereas the extreme right appears to be a typically Flemish phenomenon. Indeed, the Vlaams Blok increases its share of votes by 3 .12 % and with 15.31 % has become the third party in Flanders and thereby even surpasses somewhat the result obtained by the VN.V in 1939.The French-speaking extreme right suffered a decline due among others to internal divisions and only stands for 4.09 % in Wallonia and 4 % in Brussels. As a consequence of these results the composition of the assemblies has changed drastically. To constitute a government holding a simpte majority in the Chamber of Representatives, one needs at least three political families (i.e. 6 parties) or two families and the support of another party (5 parties). In the Flemish parliament, one needs either a three party coalition, but necessarily comprising the CVP, or a four party coalition to obtain a majority. In the Walloon parliament, a two party coalition is only possible if the PS participates.In Brussels, the Vlaams Blok, although passing from 2 to 4 seats, bas not succeeded in paralysing the functioning of the institutions as this party didn't obtain the majority in the Flemish group.Opinion polls held before the elections had forecast the direction in which votes would shift, but not the extent. The dioxine crisis bas reinforced this shift and has undoubtedly accentuated the progression of the ecologist lists.
