Suchergebnisse

This article studies how return migration aspirations are formed and realized in the context of protracted displacement. Drawing on a mixed-methods study that included survey research and in-depth interviews in Turkey, Lebanon, and Syria conducted, we study whether respondents aspired to return (i) currently, with the conflict still ongoing; and (ii) in the future, if the war were to end. Our analyses reveal how broader life aspirations play a crucial role in shaping return aspirations, and how current and future return aspirations are separate concepts. Current return aspirations were strongly stratified. For economically vulnerable respondents, current return considerations were often related to survival, whereas for respondents from the educated middle class, current return aspirations were part of their broader life aspirations. Aspirations to return after the war's end were largely driven by a wish to realize broader life goals. Future return aspirations often functioned as a mental coping strategy to keep hope for change in the future — including political change — alive. Return abilities favored those with higher socioeconomic status, those who had remained neutral in the conflict and those willing to take high risks. Overall, our analyses illustrate the usefulness of the aspirations-abilities framework, and the important role of life aspirations, in understanding return-migration decisions in a context of protracted displacement.

AbstractThis paper studies long‐term trends and patterns in global refugee migration. We explore the intensity, spread, and distance of refugee migration at a global, regional, and country level between 1951 and 2018. The analysis did not detect a long‐term increase in the global intensity of refugee migration. Primarily depending on levels of conflict, refugee numbers have fluctuated at levels of between 0.1 and 0.3 percent of the world population. Apparent increases in numbers of the globally displaced are driven by the inclusion of populations and countries that were previously excluded from the data. While refugee populations continue to be concentrated in countries with low‐to‐medium income levels, the analysis reveals several geographic shifts in refugee migration. Refugees tend to come from a shrinking number of origin countries and move to an increasing variety of destination countries. This trend seems to reflect a concentration of recurrent conflict cycles in a relatively small number of countries and a parallel increase in the number of safe destinations. Although the vast majority of refugees remain near to origin countries, the average distance between origin and destination countries has increased over time, presumably linked to the greater ease of travel and migration‐facilitating networks.

AbstractMigratory contacts may have a positive or a negative influence on local processes of reconciliation and reconstruction. However, their impact on individual attitudinal and behavioural attributes remains a largely underexposed topic. Migrants from post‐conflict Rwanda maintain substantive contacts with their relatives through social networks and the resources that they send. Reconstruction and reconciliation programmes in post‐conflict Rwanda heavily rely on these migratory contacts. We explore the relationship between migration, reconstruction and reconciliation processes in post‐conflict Rwanda. We analyse the importance of migratory contacts as a major constituent of social capital, and discuss whether and how remittances can be used for mobilizing this social capital. Adopting a micro‐level perspective, we examine the effects of migratory contacts and remittances on cooperative behaviour and willingness for reconciliation amongst 558 households in Huye District, southern Rwanda. We find that migratory contacts enhance reconstructive behaviour and reconciliatory attitudes, whereas financial remittances result in reduced participation in these processes, indicating that there is a crowding‐out effect due to remittance‐dependency. Furthermore, we scrutinize the relationship between reconciliation and reconstruction, showing that inter‐group contact is a key mediating variable.

Abstract
Previous studies suggest that displacement is one of the channels through which conflict impacts schooling outcomes. However, there is scarce evidence on this impact for those who are displaced internationally (i.e. refugees). We use data from Burundi, a country which experienced large-scale conflict-led emigration and substantial post-war refugee return, to explore differences in schooling outcomes between returnees, defined as individuals who were displaced to a neighbouring country and later returned home, and stayees, defined as individuals who never left the country during the conflict (i.e. those who were never displaced and those who were only displaced internally). Our results suggest that, controlling for pre-war characteristics and cohort effects, returning refugees are more likely to have finished primary school than their contemporaries who never left the country. We also find that an additional year spent as a refugee while of schooling age is associated with a four to six percentage point increase in the likelihood of finishing primary school.

JEL Classification: F22, D74, I25