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AbstractSystem dynamics models are increasingly being used to understand the underlying dynamics of populations and hypothesize causal system structures that can account for changes in a population's disease burden. A considerable challenge for public health modeling is understanding how changes in underlying determinants of a problem impact a population's measure of public health, such as the prevalence of a disease. Additionally, it is common to have limited insights and data for the dynamics of these determinants. This article presents an analytical method of estimating underlying distributions using model‐generated prevalence relying on a minimum number of model stratum. This method models the evolution of the underlying distribution parameters by combining statistical distribution theory and system dynamics models. This article provides general equations for various applications and an in‐depth example using body mass index. © 2023 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

Development of effective policy responses to address complex public health problems can be challenged by a lack of clarity about the interaction of risk factors driving the problem, differing views of stakeholders on the most appropriate and effective intervention approaches, a lack of evidence to support commonly implemented and acceptable intervention approaches, and a lack of acceptance of effective interventions. Consequently, political considerations, community advocacy and industry lobbying can contribute to a hotly contested debate about the most appropriate course of action; this can hinder consensus and give rise to policy resistance. The problem of alcohol misuse and its associated harms in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, provides a relevant example of such challenges. Dynamic simulation modelling is increasingly being valued by the health sector as a robust tool to support decision making to address complex problems. It allows policy makers to ask 'what-if' questions and test the potential impacts of different policy scenarios over time, before solutions are implemented in the real world. Participatory approaches to modelling enable researchers, policy makers, program planners, practitioners and consumer representatives to collaborate with expert modellers to ensure that models are transparent, incorporate diverse evidence and perspectives, are better aligned to the decision-support needs of policy makers, and can facilitate consensus building for action. This paper outlines a procedure for embedding stakeholder engagement and consensus building in the development of dynamic simulation models that can guide the development of effective, coordinated and acceptable policy responses to complex public health problems, such as alcohol-related harms in NSW.

BACKGROUND: The right to the highest attainable standard of mental health remains a distant goal worldwide. The Report of the UN Special Rapporteur on the right of all people to enjoyment of the highest attainable standard of physical and mental health pleaded the urgent need for governments to act through appropriate laws and policies. We argue that Australia is in breach of international obligations, with inadequate access to mental health services, inconsistent mental health legislation across jurisdictions and ongoing structural (systematic) and individual discrimination. DISCUSSION: Inadequate access to mental health services is a worldwide phenomenon. Australia has committed to international law obligations under the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD) to 'promote, protect and ensure the full and equal enjoyment of all human rights and fundamental freedoms by all persons with disability, with respect to their inherent dignity'. This includes people with mental health impairment and this convention includes the right to 'the highest attainable standard of mental health'. Under the Australian Constitution, ratification of this convention enables the national government to pass laws to implement the convention obligations, and such national laws would prevail over any inconsistent state (or territory) laws governing mental health service provision. SUMMARY: The authors argue that enabling positive rights through legislation and legally binding mental health service standards may facilitate enhanced accountability and enforcement of such rights. These steps may support critical key stakeholders to improve the standards of mental health service provision supported by the implementation of international obligations, thereby accelerating mental health system reform. Improved legislation would encourage better governance and the evolution of better services, making mental health care more accessible, without structural or individual discrimination, enabling all people to enjoy the highest ...

BACKGROUND: There is a significant push to change the trajectory of youth mental ill-health and suicide globally. Ensuring that young people have access to services that meet their individual needs and are easily accessible is a priority. Genuine stakeholder engagement in mental health system design is critical to ensure that system strengthening is likely to be successful within these complex environments. There is limited literature describing engagement processes undertaken by research teams in mental health program implementation and planning. This protocol describes the methods that will be used to engage local communities using systems science methods to mobilize knowledge and action to strengthen youth mental health services. METHODS: Using participatory action research principles, the research team will actively engage with local communities to ensure genuine user-led participatory systems modelling processes and enhance knowledge mobilisation within research sites. Ensuring that culturally diverse and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander community voices are included will support this process. A rigorous site selection process will be undertaken to ensure that the community is committed and has capacity to actively engage in the research activities. Stakeholder engagement commences from the site selection process with the aim to build trust between researchers and key stakeholders. The research team will establish a variety of engagement resources and make opportunities available to each site depending on their local context, needs and audiences they wish to target during the process. DISCUSSION: This protocol describes the inclusive community engagement and knowledge mobilization process for the Right care, first time, where you live research Program. This Program will use an iterative and adaptive approach that considers the social, economic, and political context of each community and attempts to maximise research engagement. A theoretical framework for applying systems approaches to knowledge ...

The persistent prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity raises significant concerns about the impact on health, society and the economy. Responding to a target announced in September 2015 by the New South Wales (Australia) Premier to reduce childhood overweight and obesity by five percentage points by 2025, a system dynamics model was developed to support Government and stakeholders responsible for meeting the target. A participatory model building process, drawing cross‐sectorial expertise, was undertaken to estimate the individual and combined impact of interventions on meeting the target. The model demonstrated that it is theoretically possible to meet the target by implementing a comprehensive combination of policies and programmes. When limited to existing and enhanced population health interventions, the modelled result did not reach the target. The project provides an example of how participatory simulation modelling can combine a broad range of interventions together into likely scenarios and usefully inform government decision‐making. © 2018 The authors. Systems Research and Behavioral Science published by International Federation for Systems Research and John Wiley & Sons Ltd

The persistent prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity raises significant concerns about the impact on health, society and the economy. Responding to a target announced in September 2015 by the New South Wales (Australia) Premier to reduce childhood overweight and obesity by five percentage points by 2025, a system dynamics model was developed to support Government and stakeholders responsible for meeting the target. A participatory model building process, drawing cross-sectorial expertise, was undertaken to estimate the individual and combined impact of interventions on meeting the target. The model demonstrated that it is theoretically possible to meet the target by implementing a comprehensive combination of policies and programmes. When limited to existing and enhanced population health interventions, the modelled result did not reach the target. The project provides an example of how participatory simulation modelling can combine a broad range of interventions together into likely scenarios and usefully inform government decision-making.

To assist with proactive and effective responses to the global COVID-19 crisis, the scientific community has been rapidly deploying our most advanced analytic tools to model the dynamics of disease transmission based on existing (albeit imperfect) knowledge, data, and available human and material resources. The multifactorial, multilevel influences on transmission dynamics and the disease's pervasive impact at the individual, community, and global levels have required the use of the analytic techniques of complex systems science, namely, systems modeling and simulation, to forecast the trajectory of the disease under different conditions, to quantify uncertainty, and to inform effective responses (1–3). These methods have been deployed by infectious disease epidemiologists for over a century (4), maturing into a robust interdisciplinary field intersecting mathematics, computational epidemiology, ecology, evolutionary biology, immunology, behavioral science, and public health (5). As a result, there have been numerous advances that have informed policies to control infectious diseases, facilitate epidemic and bioterrorism preparedness, and provide governments with critical tools for managing complexity and weighing alternative responses in the midst of the confusion of an evolving crisis (6–14). The field's commitment to achieving rapid response capability in the face of changing conditions has led to advances in rapid assessment of the impact of the pandemic, and data assimilation methods that combine theory with empirical observations in a continuous knowledge feedback process facilitating continuous hypothesis development, testing, and refinement in the service of more effective decision making (15–19).