Suchergebnisse

The aim of this paper is to investigate how the birth of a central fiscal authority or the creation of a fiscal transfer mechanism could improve the action of fiscal policy in terms of stabilization in the EMU. In particular, the paper examines the theoretical reasons to support this conclusion and provides empirical evidence that shows how the EMU is not able to face asymmetric and symmetric idiosyncratic shocks. ; Die zentrale Frage des Aufsatzes lautet: Ob und wie kann eine zentrale Fiskalbehörde oder ein fiskalischer Transfermechanismus die fiskalpolitische Stabilisierung in der EWU verbessern? Dazu werden theoretische Argumente und empirische Evidenz präsentiert, die die These bestätigen, dass die gegenwärtige EWU nicht in der Lage ist, asymmetrische und symmetrische idiosynkratische Schocks zu verarbeiten.

Cover -- Contents -- Abstract -- I. Introduction -- II. Data and Empirical Methodology -- A. Data -- B. Empirical methodology -- III. Results -- A. Baseline and robustness checks -- B. Comparing our results with the literature -- C. Sign and size of the shocks -- D. Channels -- E. Role of policy, cyclical, and structural factors -- IV. Conclusions and Policy Implications -- References -- Tables -- 1. The effect of fiscal shocks on the Government Budget Balance -- Figures -- 1. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Current Account -- 2. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Current Account: EMs vs. LICs -- 3. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Current Account-controlling for other variables -- 4. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Current Account-robustness to shock measures -- 5. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Current Account-comparison to the literature -- 6. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Current Account: Sign of the Shock -- 7. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on Investment and Saving -- 8. Impact of CAB changes on Investment and Saving -- 9. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Current Account Balance: recessions vs. expansions -- 10. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Current Account Balance-Trade Openness -- 11. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Current Account Balance-Exchange Rate Regimes -- 12. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Current Account Balance-Public Debt -- Appendices -- Table A1. Government Expenditure Shocks in EMDEs -- Table A2. Mean square error of government spending growth rate forecasts -- Figure A1. Distribution of Government Expenditure Shocks in EMDEs -- Figure A2. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Nominal Exchange Rate

The aim of this paper is to assess the short- and medium-term impact of debt crises on GDP. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1970 to 2008, the paper shows that debt crises produce significant and long-lasting output losses, reducing output by about 10 percent after eight years. The results also suggest that debt crises tend to be more detrimental than banking and currency crises. The significance of the results is robust to different specifications, identification and endogeneity checks, and datasets

This paper examines the effect of economic crises on structural unemployment
using an Autoregressive Distributed Lags model and accounting for the role of
institutional settings on an unbalanced panel of 30 OECD economies from 1960
to 2006. We found that downturns have, on average, a significant positive
impact on the level of structural unemployment rate. The maximum impact
varies with the severity of the downturn. Institutions (such as employment
protection legislation, average replacement ratio and product market
regulation) influence both the extent of the initial shock and the adjustment
pattern in the aftermath of an economic downturn.