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What has been done? Indonesia pursued rice price stabilization through two instruments used simultaneously: (i) intervention in marketing through public storehouses managed at a local level (ii) monopoly control over international trade. Price stabilization protects both consumers and producers by maintaining rice prices within a predetermined band and by widely disseminating floor and ceiling prices. Stable and low rice prices were a major objective of the government following the period of economic and political instability that came to an end in the mid-sixties. The rice price policy can be split into several periods, corresponding to changes in the country's context. These changes in turn have influenced the policy's implementing agency's objectives and constraints. How has it been implemented? Rice price stabilization was implemented by a special agency created in 1968 (BULOG). BULOG managed a nationwide network of local agencies and district-level warehouses (DOLOG), which enabled it to store substantial quantities of rice. DOLOG warehouses bought rice to bring prices in rural markets up to the floor price. BULOG procured rice paddy from farmers' cooperatives as well as from private traders. Farmers were encouraged to establish village cooperatives. Major efforts were made to build capacity of BULDOG's management and staff from the beginning. Extensive analytical studies were carried out on key factors such as the size of margins between floor and ceiling prices, the size of buffer stocks, and the price of fertilizer relative to floor and world prices. A monopoly control over international trade was established, which allowed the government to import when domestic production was insufficient and to export when there was a surplus and stocks levels were already high. What were the effects? The supply response was dramatic: rice production increased by 10.5 millions tons over the 1978-1985 period. Fertilizer use increased by 500% between 1970 and 1985, while yields increased from 2.5 T/ha in 1965 to 4.4 T/ha in 1990. A huge improvement in food security followed. What recommendations could be derived? The Indonesian experience shows that government intervention can successfully adapt to a changing context and contribute to quick economic growth, but that it is difficult to implement. It is important to note that the rice price stabilization policy was only one component of the Indonesian approach to modernizing its rice economy. Public investment, not only in infrastructure such as roads and irrigation facilities, but also in human capital, through extension services and education, played an important role in the country's success. One important characteristic of government interventions is that they focused on avoiding markets failures and supporting private economic initiatives rather than substituting public initiatives for private initiatives. The whole commodity chain was not in the hands of parastatal companies. The agricultural policy was part of a broader policy ensuring (i) macro-economic stability, (ii) making markets working more efficiently, (iii) ensuring political stability, and (iv) creating enabling environment for private investment. Some technical lessons on price stabilization can also be drawn from the Indonesian experience: - The target price should be aligned with international prices; - The policy is far less costly when the country relies on imports than when it has to manage a surplus. Key factors including the size of the margins between floor and ceiling prices, the size of buffer stocks, and the price of inputs relative to floor and world prices need to be constantly updated. (Texte intégral)

The current trade negotiations' round has been called the development round in order to emphasize ambitious objectives in terms of poverty alleviation: halving the number of poor by 2015. However estimates from world economic models show little improvement for the Less Developed Countries. Moreover several models assumptions may overestimate gains and underestimate losses, especially in the poorest countries where numerous markets imperfections hold. It seems then necessary to avoid that poverty reduction be restricted to emerging countries that development policies and their funding in LDC be discussed simultaneously to trade negotiations.

Ce document a été rédigé comme support à la contribution de l'auteur à la discussion sur le thème "Making world agricultural trade work for the rural poor" (Partie 1 du Forum : "Rural strategies for poverty reduction"). L'auteur y expose les principaux éléments de la controverse entre libéralisation totale des marchés et intervention-régulation par les états, pour apporter une réflexion plus mesurée sur la question de la réduction de la pauvreté et de la malnutrition dans les pays en développement

The term globalization, which is used to sum up the recent shift in international economic relations, refers to the increasing interdependence of world economies, combined with more intense exchanges of both goods and capital. Under the auspices of the GATT and then the WTO, this shift has also seen increasing State withdrawal, known as liberalization. Farming, which was long seen as an exceptional sector, has been at the heart of international talks since the Uruguay Round and the 1994 Marrakech agreement. The sector, which is involved in greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration, is also directly concerned by the international talks on global change. Liberalization is expected to result in a global increase in wellbeing, linked on the one hand to increased efficiency through specialization, and on the other hand to the fact that any shocks are spread over a broader market, thus reducing their adverse effects. This is one of the major results of economic theory, illustrated by many simulations backed up by figures, which have estimated the gains in terms of billions of dollars. However, although these results are guaranteed in a theoretical perfect market, they are in fact far from the reality of the current global market, whose very considerable fluctuations can induce huge efficiency losses.

Ce rapport final de l'étude confiée au Cirad par le Ministère des affaires étrangères (commande n° 2000/07) décrit : 1) les objectifs, les produits et le déroulement du projet ; 2) la méthodologie : comportement des acteurs et analyse des politiques agricoles (modèle MATA) ; 3) quatre scenarii de libéralisation de l'agriculture ; 4) les résultats, différents selon le scénario utilisé. En conclusion, les auteurs indiquent que le projet a permis l'élaboration d'un modèle opérationnel sur le secteur agricole de la région de Central Luzon, principale région productrice de riz aux Philippines. Avec plusieurs séminaires de formation et le soutien technique intensif du programme Cirad-Amis-Ecopol, le modèle a été développé par deux chercheurs nationaux du PCARRD ce qui permettra de l'étendre à l'ensemble de l'agriculture des Philippines et éventuellement à d'autres pays de la région, ce qui en fait un transfert de technologie réussi. Les différents scénarri de libéralisation testés montrent qu'une libéralisation excluant le riz est beaucoup plus favorable aux agriculteurs philippins, et l'importance de l'impact de la libéralisation sur l'instabilité des prix dans l'évaluation de ses conséquences sur les revenus des paysans les plus pauvres ; en effet, si la libéralisation se traduit par un accroissement de l'instabilité des prix, l'impact sur les ménages ruraux les plus pauvres est fortement négatif. L'annexe est un Guide pour le développement des modèles MATA

Cet article analyse les raisons des faibles performances dans la lutte contre l'insécurité alimentaire et la pauvreté au Burkina Faso malgré les performances macroéconomiques enregistrées par le pays au cours des dernières décennies. Il analyse ensuite, à l'aide d'un modèle d'Équilibre Général Calculable, la capacité d'un investissement public dans l'agriculture à améliorer la situation actuelle des pauvres. Plusieurs éléments se conjuguent pour expliquer la persistance de la pauvreté et de l'insécurité alimentaire : la forte croissance démographique qui implique une faible croissance du PIB (Produit Intérieur Brut) par tête ; la faible contribution de l'agriculture à la croissance globale ; la persistance d'un chômage urbain ; et une répartition des fruits de la croissance peu favorable aux pauvres. L'investissement public dans l'agriculture, en augmentant la productivité dans les activités agricoles, permet des progrès en milieu rural et surtout en milieu urbain.

Cet article analyse les raisons des faibles performances en matière de lutte contre l'insécurité alimentaire et la pauvreté au Burkina Faso malgré les bonnes performances économiques enregistrées par le pays au cours des 10 dernières années et teste, à l'aide d'un modèle d'Equilibre Général Calculable deux mesures de politiques économiques pour améliorer la situation alimentaire des plus pauvres : une politique d'investissement public seule ou combinée à une politique d'emplois en faveur des pauvres. Il ressort de l'analyse que la persistance de la pauvreté et de l'insécurité alimentaire est imputable au phénomène de piège à pauvreté où la faiblesse des revenus explique la faiblesse de l'épargne et donc de l'investissement à l'origine de la faiblesse de la productivité du travail et donc des revenus. Les résultats de la simulation montrent l'efficacité de l'investissement public surtout lorsqu'il est combiné avec des mesures qui favorisent l'emploi des plus pauvres.

Cet article analyse les raisons des faibles performances en matière de lutte contre l'insécurité alimentaire et la pauvreté au Burkina Faso malgré les bonnes performances économiques enregistrées par le pays au cours des 10 dernières années et teste, à l'aide d'un modèle d'Equilibre Général Calculable deux mesures de politiques économiques pour améliorer la situation alimentaire des plus pauvres : une politique d'investissement public seule ou combinée à une politique d'emplois en faveur des pauvres. Il ressort de l'analyse que la persistance de la pauvreté et de l'insécurité alimentaire est imputable au phénomène de piège à pauvreté où la faiblesse des revenus explique la faiblesse de l'épargne et donc de l'investissement à l'origine de la faiblesse de la productivité du travail et donc des revenus. Les résultats de la simulation montrent l'efficacité de l'investissement public surtout lorsqu'il est combiné avec des mesures qui favorisent l'emploi des plus pauvres.

Cet article évalue les impacts de scénario alternatifs de politique économique sur la pauvreté rurale dans le Plateau Central au Burkina Faso. Une analyse détaillée des systèmes de production permet de classer les exploitations en trois types, selon leur dotation initiale en facteurs de production. Des modèles de ménages, basés sur la programmation mathématique sont ensuite mis au point et calibrés pour chaque type, afin de représenter les décisions concernant l'activité économique et leurs résultats en terme de revenus. Ils sont ensuite utilisés afin de simuler les effets de cinq mesures de politiques économiques : (i) accroissement de la disponibilité en eau d'irrigation, (ii) baisse des coûts de commercialisation, (iii) accès à la traction attelée, (iv) accès au crédit et (v) réduction de la variabilité des prix aux producteurs. L'analyse met en évidence des impacts différents selon les types d'exploitations. Etant donnée la profondeur de la pauvreté initiale, le recours à une combinaison de mesures est nécessaire pour obtenir une amélioration significative de la situation des exploitants les plus pauvres.

What has been done? Malawi has a long tradition of intervention in maize markets that dates back to the colonial period, was pursued after Independence and continued through the mid-1980's: pan-territorial and pan-seasonal prices, subsidization of fertilizers. After a liberalization period from 1987 to 2000, during which the Agricultural Development Marketing Corporation (ADMARC) was privatized, maize fertilizer subsidies and licensing requirements for traders were removed and the government once again started to intervene through a vast program of input subsidies and the reinforcement of ADMARC. How has it been implemented? The Malawian government, which controls all formal maize imports, greatly influences maize trade policy. The main criticism of this policy concerns the unpredictable and discretionary nature of government decisions, such as sudden imposition of trade restrictions, import bans and changes in tariff rates. Ad-hoc governmental operations tend to increase risk and discourage private trade initiatives. They also often exacerbate food crises, driving the cost of food staples well beyond import parity price. What are the effects? During the 1983-1993 period, the implementation of a policy package combining ADMARC's intervention on the grain market; seed, fertilizer and credit delivery; extension services; and rural infrastructure development resulted in positive effects on yield and production growth. More recently, growth in maize production has been striking. It is still too early to understand what is driving this trend. Favorable climatic factors may be at play. The free seed and fertilizer programs of 1998 and the Agricultural Input Subsidy Program in place since 2005, combined with stronger ADMARC's initiatives to guarantee producer prices and price ceilings at retail, may also be behind the increase of maize production. Domestic maize prices appeared to be more volatile than international maize prices during the 1994-2007 period. However, as soon as floor (and ceiling) prices were known, and other producer supports such as those on seed, fertilizer and credit were provided, producers took favorable decisions on farm investment. What recommendations could be derived? Maize price stabilization is only one component of Malawi's agricultural policy. Maize production growth is the result of a technical package that includes high-yielding varieties, fertilizer and technical advice. However, the unpredictable and discretionary nature of the price stabilization policy has weaken the policy's legitimacy. To be legitmate, the policy must be predictable and include a consultative process with key stakeholders. The choice of pan-territorial producer prices in such a long country leads to some difficulties and inefficiencies in remote areas. Some actors in Malawi are currently experimenting with market-based instruments, but it is too early to assess their impact. (Texte intégral)

Cette fiche technique résume les objectifs, les méthodes utilisées, les acquis et les perspectives du modèle MATA (Multi-level analysis tool for agriculture) élaboré par le Programme économie, politiques et marchés du Cirad comme outil d'aide à la décision en matière de politique agricole

The purposes of this paper are twofold (i) to evaluate changes in welfare gains and their distribution due to trade liberalization when imperfect labor markets are considered, (ii) to evaluate the impact of the recent reforms of European agricultural policy on the world welfare. The results of two versions of a dynamic world computable genaral equilibrium (CGE) model, usign the GTAP database version 6 are compared. In the first version, a standard world CGE approach is followed by perfect labor mobility across sectors. In the second version we assume that labor shift s freely within the aggregated sectors -agriculture, manufactures, services,- but not across them. After a brief description of the two versions, changes in welfare, represented not only by the world GDP but also by the consumption level of two types of household (middle-low and middle-high) in 7 regions (Brazil, China, India, Least developed countries, European Union, United States, Rest of the World) after partial trade liberalization are presented. Theoretical and political consequences of the results are discussed. .French Abstract : Cet article a un double objectif (i) évaluer les modifications des gains de la libéralisation lorsque certaines imperfections des marchés du travail sont prises en compte, (ii) quantifier les impacts des réformes récentes de la Politique Agricole Commune. Deux versions d'un modèle mondial d'équilibre général, utilisant la base de données GTAP (version 6), sont utilisées à cet effet : dans la première l'hypothèse standard de mobilité parfaite du travail entre secteurs est adoptée, alors que dans la seconde on suppose que si le travail se déplace librement à l'intérieur de secteurs agrégés (agriculture, manufactures, services), il ne peut passer de l'un à l'autre. Après une brève description des principales caractéristiques des deux versions du modèle, les résultats obtenus dans des scénarii de libéralisation partielle, pour 7 régions du monde (Brésil, Chine, Inde, PMA, UE, USA, RDM) et deux types de ménages (riches ...

The Purposes of this paper are twofold (i) to evaluate changes in welfare gains and their distribution due to trade liberalization when imperfect labor markets are considered, (ii) to evaluate the impact of the recent reforms of the European agricultural policy on the world welfare. The results of two versions of a dynamic world computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, using the GTAP database version 6 are compared. In the first version, a standard world CGE approach is followed with perfect labor mobility across sectors. In the second version we assume that labor shifts freely within the aggregated sectors -agriculture, manufactures, services- but not across them .After a brief description of the two versions, changes in welfare, represented not only by the world GDP but also by the consumption level of two types of households (middle-low and middle-high) in 7 regions (Brazil, China, India, Least developed countries, European Union, United States, Rest of the World) after partial trade liberalization are presented. Theoretical and political consequences of the results are discussed.