Suchergebnisse

In 2005, the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) established a new commodity: the right to emit a ton of CO2 (EUA). Since its launch, the corresponding price has shown rather turbulent dynamics, including nervous reactions to policy announcements and a price collapse after a visible over-allocation in Phase I. As a consequence, the question whether fundamental factors (fossil fuel prices, economic activity, weather) affect the EUA price remained partially unresolved. Today, being halfway through Phase II (2008-2012) and relying on a more mature market, we use more reliable data to investigate the extent to which allowance price dynamics can be explained by market fundamentals. We empirically test for the influence of fuel prices, economic activity, and weather variations. Fuel prices allow to test for fuel switching from coal to gas, the most important short-term abatement option for most installations in the EU-ETS. The empirical results show a significant influence of gas, coal, and oil prices, of economic activity and of some weather variations. When including the relative price of coal to gas on a forward level, we found evidence of a switching effect. Yet, on a spot level the demand effect seems to dominate. However, when including the absolute coal price the coefficient is positive, contradicting theory with respect to both the switching and the demand effect. The significant weather variations suggest that their influence on EUA prices is less driven by their effect on energy demand but more by their effect on the provision of carbon-free renewable energy. Overall, our results show that the price dynamics are much better explained by a model based on fundamentals than by a purely autoregressive model. However, the results also show that fundamentals alone cannot fully explain price dynamics and that forecasting is improved by the inclusion of time series characteristics.

The recent Employment and Social Developments report by the European Commission has drawn a bleak picture of the economic situation in Europe. Unemployment levels are on record-highs, household incomes have declined, and risks of poverty and social exclusion have risen, most notably in Southern and Eastern Europe. The group of young adults faces a particularly high risk, as long-term unemployment rates of this group have increased in many countries, and skill mismatch has become more severe. However, youth unemployment is not only a European, but a global issue, with varying levels of severity across countries. The causes of youth unemployment also vary by country, and so do the solutions. Given the long-term risks of extended unemployment spells, the importance of tackling youth unemployment can hardly be overestimated. Youth are the potential and future of every country and governments with a long-term vision for welfare and development in their countries are concerned with the best ways to integrate the young people into the labour force. The topic has been receiving media attention and has been discussed in many business and policy forums. In the European Union, youth unemployment currently ranks very highly on the policy agenda. The European Commission has recently launched the Youth Opportunities Initiative in order to support unemployed youth. The aim is to supply funds for apprenticeship and entrepreneurship schemes, help with company placements and provide advice for young people with business ideas. This Kiel Policy Brief aims at introducing the reader to the topic of youth unemployment. After defining youth unemployment, it provides an overview on the extent of youth unemployment around the world, discusses some of the main reasons for, and consequences of youth unemployment, and concludes with a few solutions for how to reduce it.

In this paper we empirically investigate potential determinants of allowance (EUA) price dynamics in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) during Phase II. In contrast to previous papers, we analyze a significantly longer time series, place particular emphasis on the importance of price variable selection, and include an extensive data of renewable energy feed-in in Europe. We show (i) that results are extremely sensitive to choosing different price series of potential determinants, such as coal and gas prices, (ii) that EUA price dynamics are only marginally influenced by renewable energy provision in Europe, and iii) that EUA prices currently do not reflect marginal abatement costs across Europe. We conclude that the expectation of a more mature allowance market in Phase II cannot be confirmed.

This report, by the co-chairs of the T20 process during Germany's G20 Presidency, presents 20 key policy recommendations for G20 policy-makers and stakeholders. The policy recommendations are formulated concisely to be easily accessible to those seeking a short summary of the main conclusions. Readers who are interested in the detailed recommendations are referred to the Policy Briefs in the G20 Insights Platform (www.g20-insights.org). This report includes only a selection of policy recommendations that have been chosen for their novelty, ease of implementation and relevance to the G20 during the German Presidency. The G20 Insights Platform contains the full range of T20 policy recommendations. ; Dieser Bericht, der von den Co-Chairs des T20-Prozesses (Think 20) während der deutschen G20-Präsidentschaft 2017 vorgelegt wurde, enthält 20 wichtige politische Empfehlungen für politische Entscheidungsträger und Interessengruppen rund um die G20. Die Politikvorschläge sind in Kurzform formuliert, um für diejenigen leicht zugänglich zu sein, die eine Zusammenfassung der wichtigsten Schlussfolgerungen suchen. Leser, die an den detaillierten Empfehlungen interessiert sind, werden auf die Policy Briefs auf der G20 Insights Plattform (www.g20-insights.org) verwiesen. Dieser Bericht enthält nur eine Auswahl von Politikempfehlungen, die aufgrund ihrer Neuartigkeit, ihrer einfachen Umsetzbarkeit und ihrer Relevanz für die G20 während der deutschen Präsidentschaft ausgewählt wurden. Die G20 Insights Plattform enthält die gesamte Bandbreite der T20-Politikempfehlungen.

Deutschland weist seit mehreren Jahren einen anhaltenden Leistungsbilanzüberschuss auf. Im Vorfeld der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise stieg der Überschuss über mehrere Jahre deutlich an und hatte im Jahr 2007 über 7 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) erreicht. Neben Deutschland wiesen auch weitere EU-Länder, z.B. Österreich, Schweden oder Finnland anhaltende und steigende Leistungsbilanzüberschüsse auf. Gleichzeitig hatten andere, vor allem südeuropäische, EU-Länder wachsende und anhaltende Leistungsbilanzdefizite. Seit 2007 haben sich zwar die Leistungsbilanzsalden fast aller europäischen Länder wieder verringert, Deutschland verzeichnet jedoch nach wie vor einen Überschuss von 6 bis 7 Prozent des BIP. Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichte sind oftmals Ausdruck unterschiedlicher Wettbewerbsfähigkeit. Gerade Deutschland wird häufig vorgeworfen, seine Wettbewerbsfähigkeit mittels übermäßiger Lohnzurückhaltung gestärkt zu haben. Deutschlands Exporte seien dadurch relativ preiswert geworden und der Leistungsbilanzüberschuss gewachsen. Gleichzeitig hätten andere Länder an Wettbewerbsfähigkeit verloren (z.B. durch zu hohe Lohnabschlüsse). Ihre Exporte seien deshalb relativ teuer geworden und ihre Leistungsbilanzdefizite gewachsen. So hätten die Ungleichgewichte zugenommen. [.] ; This study analyzes to what extend the rising share of foreign value added in exports and various factors of non-price competitiveness are related to exports and current account balances in the European Union and other large exporting economies. It also asks whether Germany is special with regard to these relationships. We answer these questions by means of descriptive and econometric analyses. In particular, we carry out export regressions for 12 manufacturing industries in a sample of 14 EU countries and in a sample of 8 large exporting economies. Moreover, we carry out regressions for the current account balance in 14 EU countries. The study looks at the period 1995 to 2007. We calculate an indicator for the share of foreign value added in exports (degree of vertical specialization) based on the World Input Output Database (WIOD). The indicator is calculated for individual industries and countries. Using the WIOD, it is possible to allocate the actual imported value added to the respective origin country, irrespective of whether it has been channeled through other countries in previous stages of the production process. Hence, we can distinguish the imported intermediates by country of origin. In this study, we distinguish between imports from high-wage countries, low-wage countries, and Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). The share of imported value added from CEECs is particularly high in Germany. It has also grown most strongly in Germany. [.]

The conventional wisdom is that increasing globalisation requires a reduction in the provision of the welfare state among industrialised countries as the distortions resulting from this type of expenditure undermine international competitiveness and the ability of countries to attract and/or retain industries. However, there are empirical observations and theoretical models that are not in line with this conventional wisdom -- see for instance Molana and Montagna (2006) and Goerg, Molana and Montagna (2009). We will carry out an empirical study using multi-country data for selected OECD countries to investigate the link between two aspects of globalisation, namely international competitiveness and foreign direct investment, and the size of government expenditure on social policies. The paper will also take into account theoretical arguments and empirical evidence from related studies.

This paper reconsiders the link between welfare state provision, globalisation and competitiveness empirically. We challenge the conventional wisdom that welfare states, large-scale public provision of social insurance and progressive systems of redistributive taxation are incompatible with economic globalisation. Our empirical analysis is motivated by recent theoretical work that looks at the effects of redistribution policies in open economies models that capture the interconnectedness of welfare states, production structures and international economic integration when goods and factor markets are imperfectly competitive and countries possess specific characteristics e.g. demographic structure, institutional features of labour markets, and government's preference structure. Hence, contrary to the conventional view, the efficiency gains stemming from increasing international openness strengthen the positive feed-back effects between redistribution policies and the exploitation of aggregate scale economies. We find some evidence in line with the theory, suggesting that there is indeed a positive interaction between vertical linkages and social expenditure in raising competitiveness. We also look at an important aspect of globalisation, namely the activities of multinational companies, and investigate whether social expenditure, which arguably contributes to a stable and more attractive social and economic environment for the operations of businesses, hinders or attracts inward investors. We find that social expenditure may be attractive to inward FDI and may also act to anchor firms in the home country.