Suchergebnisse

Recent European and German climate targets call for a faster power system transition towards variable renewable energy sources. With the increasing importance of Open Science, several Open Source models have been developed in recent years. However, only a few studies exist that compare their performance against each other. Therefore, this study performs a comprehensive model comparison of five mature Open Source power sector models. For this purpose, we apply eight fully harmonized and simplified one-year scenarios for the German power sector, to analyze deviations in model results. First, an in-depth analysis of two base scenarios for 2016 and 2030 reveals that linear programming-based models differ substantially from models with pre-implemented dispatch orders. Other deviations occur across all models and are mainly caused by the indifferent use of flexibility options such as storage and transmission. Second, variations of parameters and characteristics with a political significance are individually applied to the 2030 base scenario to identify their impact on model results. This includes CO 2 emission budgets, increased demands by sector coupling, coal exit strategies, and renewable generation shares. The results prove that some models are far more sensitive to these parameters than others, and renewable generation shares alone are not sufficient to reach desired effects in emission reductions. Finally, a comprehensive scenario for 2030 combines all measures to evaluate general trends that result from the most recent updates in German energy policy. Model results indicate that the new targets require substantially increased investments into renewable generation capacities, storage, and transmission.

Background: Parasite evolution is hypothesized to select for levels of parasite virulence that maximise transmission success. When host population densities fluctuate, low levels of virulence with limited impact on the host are expected, as this should increase the likelihood of surviving periods of low host density. We examined the effects of Morogoro arenavirus on the survival and recapture probability of multimammate mice (Mastomys natalensis) using a seven-year capture-mark-recapture time series. Mastomys natalensis is the natural host of Morogoro virus and is known for its strong seasonal density fluctuations. Results: Antibody presence was negatively correlated with survival probability (effect size: 5-8% per month depending on season) but positively with recapture probability (effect size: 8%). Conclusions: The small negative correlation between host survival probability and antibody presence suggests that either the virus has a negative effect on host condition, or that hosts with lower survival probability are more likely to obtain Morogoro virus infection, for example due to particular behavioural or immunological traits. The latter hypothesis is supported by the positive correlation between antibody status and recapture probability which suggests that risky behaviour might increase the probability of becoming infected. ; University of Antwerp [GOA BOF FFB3567]; Antwerp study centre for disease (ASCID) [GOA BOF FFB3567]; INCO-DEV grant [ICA4-CT2002-10050]; German Research Foundation (Focus Programs from Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft) [GU 883/3-1, GU 883/3-2]; European Union's Horizon research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant [707840] ; This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.

INTRODUCTION: Lassa fever (LF) is a severe and often fatal systemic disease in humans and affects a large number of countries in West Africa. Treatment options are limited to supportive care and the broad-spectrum antiviral agent ribavirin. However, evidence for ribavirin efficacy in patients with LF is poor and pharmacokinetic (PK) data are not available. Irrua Specialist Teaching Hospital (ISTH) developed an intravenous ribavirin regimen different to the WHO recommendation. Apart from a lower total daily dose the drug is usually administered once per day which reduces the exposure of personnel to patients with LF. The aim of this study is to characterise the PK of the Irrua ribavirin regimen. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This prospective, observational clinical study will assess PK properties of the Irrua ribavirin regimen on routinely ribavirin-treated patients with LF at ISTH, a referral hospital serving 19 local governmental areas in a LF endemic zone in Nigeria. Participants will be adults with PCR-confirmed LF. The primary objective is to describe classical PK parameters for ribavirin (maximum plasma drug concentration, time to maximum plasma drug concentration, area under the plasma drug concentration vs time curve, half-life time T1/2, volume of distribution). Blood samples will be collected at 0.5, 1, 3, 5, 8, 12 and 24 hours after doses on day 1, day 4 and day 10 of ribavirin treatment. Ribavirin plasma concentrations will be determined using liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study will be conducted in compliance with the protocol, the Declaration of Helsinki, Good Clinical Practice (GCP) and the Nigerian National Code for Health Research Ethics. The protocol has received approval by the Health Research Ethics Committee of ISTH. Results will be made available to LF survivors, their caregivers, the funders, LF research society and other researchers. REGISTRATION DETAILS: ISRCTN11104750

The last seven years have seen the greatest surge of Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases in equatorial Africa, including the 2013–2016 epidemic in West Africa and the recent epidemics in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The vaccine clinical trials that took place in West Africa and the DRC, as well as follow-up studies in collaboration with EVD survivor communities, have for the first time allowed researchers to compare immune memory induced by natural infection and vaccination. These comparisons may be relevant to evaluate the putative effectiveness of vaccines and candidate medical countermeasures such as convalescent plasma transfer. In this study, we compared the long-term functionality of anti-EBOV glycoprotein (GP) antibodies from EVD survivors with that from volunteers who received the recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus vectored vaccine (rVSV-ZEBOV) during the Phase I clinical trial in Hamburg. Our study highlights important differences between EBOV vaccination and natural infection and provides a framework for comparison with other vaccine candidates.

BACKGROUND: By January, 2016, all known transmission chains of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in west Africa had been stopped. However, there is concern about persistence of Ebola virus in the reproductive tract of men who have survived EVD. We aimed to use biostatistical modelling to describe the dynamics of Ebola virus RNA load in seminal fluid, including clearance parameters. METHODS: In this longitudinal study, we recruited men who had been discharged from three Ebola treatment units in Guinea between January and July, 2015. Participants provided samples of seminal fluid at follow-up every 3-6 weeks, which we tested for Ebola virus RNA using quantitative real-time RT-PCR. Representative specimens from eight participants were then inoculated into immunodeficient mice to test for infectivity. We used a linear mixed-effect model to analyse the dynamics of virus persistence in seminal fluid over time. FINDINGS: We enrolled 26 participants and tested 130 seminal fluid specimens; median follow up was 197 days (IQR 187-209 days) after enrolment, which corresponded to 255 days (228-287) after disease onset. Ebola virus RNA was detected in 86 semen specimens from 19 (73%) participants. Median duration of Ebola virus RNA detection was 158 days after onset (73-181; maximum 407 days at end of follow-up). Mathematical modelling of the quantitative time-series data showed a mean clearance rate of Ebola virus RNA from seminal fluid of -0·58 log units per month, although the clearance kinetic varied greatly between participants. Using our biostatistical model, we predict that 50% and 90% of male survivors clear Ebola virus RNA from seminal fluid at 115 days (90% prediction interval 72-160) and 294 days (212-399) after disease onset, respectively. We also predicted that the number of men positive for Ebola virus RNA in affected countries would decrease from about 50 in January 2016, to fewer than 1 person by July, 2016. Infectious virus was detected in 15 of 26 (58%) specimens tested in mice. INTERPRETATION: Time to clearance of Ebola virus RNA from seminal fluid varies greatly between individuals and could be more than 13 months. Our predictions will assist in decision-making about surveillance and preventive measures in EVD outbreaks. FUNDING: This study was funded by European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, Directorate-General for International Cooperation and Development of the European Commission, Institut national de la santé et de la recherche médicale (INSERM), German Research Foundation (DFG), and Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking.

In 2014, Ebola virus (EBOV) was identified as the etiological agent of a large and still expanding outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa and a much more confined EVD outbreak in Middle Africa. Epidemiological and evolutionary analyses confirmed that all cases of both outbreaks are connected to a single introduction each of EBOV into human populations and that both outbreaks are not directly connected. Coding-complete genomic sequence analyses of isolates revealed that the two outbreaks were caused by two novel EBOV variants, and initial clinical observations suggest that neither of them should be considered strains. Here we present consensus decisions on naming for both variants (West Africa: "Makona", Middle Africa: "Lomela") and provide database-compatible full, shortened, and abbreviated names that are in line with recently established filovirus sub-species nomenclatures. ; This work was funded in part through Battelle Memorial Institute's prime contract with the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) under Contract No. HHSN272200700016I. ; http://www.mdpi.com/journal/viruses ; hb2015

In 2014, Ebola virus (EBOV) was identified as the etiological agent of a large and still expanding outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa and a much more confined EVD outbreak in Middle Africa. Epidemiological and evolutionary analyses confirmed that all cases of both outbreaks are connected to a single introduction each of EBOV into human populations and that both outbreaks are not directly connected. Coding-complete genomic sequence analyses of isolates revealed that the two outbreaks were caused by two novel EBOV variants, and initial clinical observations suggest that neither of them should be considered strains. Here we present consensus decisions on naming for both variants (West Africa: "Makona", Middle Africa: "Lomela") and provide database-compatible full, shortened, and abbreviated names that are in line with recently established filovirus sub-species nomenclatures.