Suchergebnisse

Power reserves such as money, information, support, knowledge, and time are essential in handling conflicts. These power reserves are, as a rule, limited in that they are insufficient in handling existing multi‐conflicting relationships. This paper presents an episodic model for the rational planning of power reserves that can aid in effective power use. How much and to what extent this power should be used depends on the following: (1) determining the significance of the various activity fields (i.e., arenas) in which conflict arises; (2) calculating the decision maker's conflict intensity with the other party(ies) in the attainment of each goal; (3) identifying the facilitating or inhibitory factors in power use; and (4) estimating the likely consequences of using power to resolve any conflict.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti to United States. However, the pattern of the subsequent spread still remains poorly understood. Here we analyze a large dataset of globally representative HIV-1 subtype B strains to map their spread around the world over the last 50 years and describe significant spread patterns. We show that subtype B travelled from North America to Western Europe in different occasions, while Central/Eastern Europe remained isolated for the most part of the early epidemic. Looking with more detail in European countries we see that the United Kingdom, France and Switzerland exchanged viral isolates with non-European countries than with European ones. The observed pattern is likely to mirror geopolitical landmarks in the post-World War II era, namely the rise and the fall of the Iron Curtain and the European colonialism. In conclusion, HIV-1 spread through specific migration routes which are consistent with geopolitical factors that affected human activities during the last 50 years, such as migration, tourism and trade. Our findings support the argument that epidemic control policies should be global and incorporate political and socioeconomic factors.

BACKGROUND: UNAIDS has set a 90-90-90 target to curb the HIV epidemic by 2020, but methods used to assess whether countries have reached this target are not standardised, hindering comparisons. METHODS: Through a collaboration formed by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) with European HIV cohorts and surveillance agencies, we constructed a standardised, four-stage continuum of HIV care for 11 European Union (EU) countries for 2013. Stages were defined as: 1) number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in the country by end of 2013; 2) proportion of stage 1 ever diagnosed; 3) proportion of stage 2 ever initiated ART; and 4) proportion of stage 3 who became virally-suppressed (≤200 copies/mL). Case surveillance data were used primarily to derive stages 1 (using back-calculation models) and 2, and cohort data for stages 3 and 4. RESULTS: In 2013, 674,500 people in the 11 countries were estimated to be living with HIV, ranging from 5,500 to 153,400 in each country. Overall HIV prevalence was 0.22% (range 0.09%-0.36%). Overall proportions, of each previous stage, were 84% diagnosed, 84% on ART, and 85% virally-suppressed (60% of PLHIV). Two countries achieved ≥90% for all stages, and over half had reached ≥90% for at least one stage. CONCLUSIONS: EU countries are nearing the 90-90-90 target. Reducing the proportion undiagnosed remains the greatest barrier to achieving this target, suggesting further efforts are needed to improve HIV testing rates. Standardising methods to derive comparable continuums of care remains a challenge.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti to United States. However, the pattern of the subsequent spread still remains poorly understood. Here we analyze a large dataset of globally representative HIV-1 subtype B strains to map their spread around the world over the last 50 years and describe significant spread patterns. We show that subtype B travelled from North America to Western Europe in different occasions, while Central/Eastern Europe remained isolated for the most part of the early epidemic. Looking with more detail in European countries we see that the United Kingdom, France and Switzerland exchanged viral isolates with non-European countries than with European ones. The observed pattern is likely to mirror geopolitical landmarks in the post-World War II era, namely the rise and the fall of the Iron Curtain and the European colonialism. In conclusion, HIV-1 spread through specific migration routes which are consistent with geopolitical factors that affected human activities during the last 50 years, such as migration, tourism and trade. Our findings support the argument that epidemic control policies should be global and incorporate political and socioeconomic factors.