Suchergebnisse

AbstractThis paper presents a method to improve the one-step-ahead forecasts of the Spanish unemployment monthly series. To do so, we use numerous potential explanatory variables extracted from searches in Google (Google Trends tool). Two different dimension reduction techniques are implemented (PCA and Forward Stepwise Selection) to decide how to combine the explanatory variables or which ones to use. The results of a recursive forecasting exercise reveal a statistically significant increase in predictive accuracy of 10–25%, depending on the dimension reduction method employed. A deep robustness analysis confirms these findings, as well as the relevance of using a large amount of Google queries together with a dimension reduction technique, when no prior information on which are the most informative queries is available.

Intro -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- Notes on Contributors -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Introduction -- The Fruits of the Early Globalization: An Iberian Perspective -- Introduction -- Book's Structure and Short Summary of the Chapters -- Part II. The Early Globalization: Description and Some Consequences -- Part III. Trade and Consumption of Textiles in the Early Globalization -- Bibliography -- The Early Globalization: Description and Some Consequences -- The Significance of Early Globalization: Arguments and Evidence -- Introduction -- Integration of Global Commodity Markets -- The Rise of Global Trade and Migration -- Consequences for Global Development -- Debate -- Africa and the Americas -- Asia -- Europe -- Conclusion -- References -- International Migrations to Latin America and the Caribbean Until 1820 -- The Sixteenth Century -- The Seventeenth Century and Eighteenth Century -- The Structure of Transatlantic Migrations -- Conclusion -- Bibliography -- The Fruits of El Dorado: The Global Impact of American Precious Metals -- Introduction -- Impact on European Economies -- Fiscal Revenue -- Short and Medium-Term Effects -- Long-Term Consequences for Iberia -- Long-Term Consequences for Other European Countries -- Impact on Latin America -- From Conquest to Colonization -- Building the Backbone of the Empire -- Imperial Fortunes -- A Counterfactual Metal-Less Empire -- Impact on Africa and Asia -- Conclusion -- References -- Prices and Money in the Globalization of the Early Modern Era -- Introduction -- Golden Age and Collapse of Silver Production -- Silver Scarcity and Decline of Prices -- Silver as International Mean of Payment and Price Comovements -- Statistical Analysis of Prices and Silver Production Series -- Concluding Remarks and Further Research -- References.

1 Introduction -- 2 Early Globalization: Arguments and Evidence -- 3 Harbingers of Modernity: an Iberian perspective -- 4 Silver production, prices and globalization in the eighteenth century -- 5 The Austrian mining industry and the Iberian globalization -- 6 The Manila Galleon and the Age of Trade -- 7 The reception of Asian textiles in Portugal and Brazil: impact and consequences (1500- 1800) -- 8 Oriental Goods in New Spain: Trade, Fashion, Race, and Consumption -- 9 The Trade and the Consumption of European products at the beginning of 18th century in New Spain based on Jean de Monségur's memoirs" -- 10 Iberian Empires & Transatlantic Migration 1492-1808.

Anthropometric literature on the American territories of the Hispanic monarchy before their independence is still scarce. We attempt to expand the field with a case study that includes some important novelties. Albeit our main source, the military records of the Censo de Revillagigedo (conducted in the early 1790s), has already been used, the sample size and the geographical scope are unprecedented: 19,390 males of four ethnicities (castizos, españoles, mestizos, and mulatos) aged from 16 to 39 from 24 localities, including towns and villages scattered across central regions of the Viceroyalty of New Spain. We build a database that, complemented with information on resource endowments obtained from other sources, permits to analyze the determinants of height. Our results show the importance of spatial differences as well as the significance of ethnicity, occupation, rurality, age and resource endowments as determinants of height. Unprivileged mulatos are only 0.5 cm shorter than, assumedly privileged, españoles in the "first world" (El Bajío) and 1.3 cm taller in the "second world" (Eastern Central Highlands). In turn, living in the "first world" implies being between nearly 1.5 cm and 5 cm taller than the inhabitants of the "second world". Our estimates of physical statures are placed within an international comparative context and offer a relatively "optimistic" picture.

Globalization, if defined as the integration of international commodity markets, started in the eighteenth century and progressed gradually and with some setbacks into the nineteenth century, instead of suddenly appearing at some point after the 1820s. We use grain prices in Europe and the Americas to determine the extent and dynamics of market integration throughout the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. An innovative methodology, with special attention being paid to changes in residual dispersion of the univariate models of relative prices between markets, permits us to obtain a measure of market integration over time.