Suchergebnisse

International audience France is a major agricultural power, characterized by a high degree of regional specialization, either in stockless cash crop farming, exporting most of its intensive cereal production, or in intensive livestock farming highly dependent on foreign feed imports. This agricultural model is characterized by wide nutrient and carbon cycle opening and severe environmental pollution. Based on the nutrient accounting GRAFS model, two contrasted scenarios for the French agricultural system at the 2050 horizon have recently been designed and evaluated for their capacity to meet both the national population's food demand and environmental standards in terms of water pollution. The first scenario (O/S, for opening and specialization) assumes the continuation of the current trends of intensification, specialization, and opening to international markets. The second one (A/R/D, for autonomy, reconnection, and demitarian diet) assumes a radical change toward organic farming with diversification of crop rotations, reconnection of crop and livestock farming, and reduction of the proportion of animal proteins in the human diet. Herein we calculate the budget of CO2 emissions and C sequestration in soils of these two scenarios compared with the current situation of the French agro-food system, by coupling the GRAFS and AMG models. These simulations reveal that the overall CO2 emissions balance of the O/S scenario is far higher than those of the A/R/D, namely because of the emissions associated with mineral fertilizer manufacture, and imported feed and mechanization of land management requiring a large amount of fossil fuel. As the organic carbon content of the soil is known to be highly path-dependent (in the sense that it is the inheritance of previous land use practices), we tested the effect of two rates of implementation of the two scenarios and evaluated the response time of the C soil store, which is of the order of two decades or more. This reveals that after about two-three decades following the ...

International audience ; Narratives of two prospective scenarios for the future of French agriculture were elaborated by pushing several trends already acting on the dynamics of the current system to their logical end. The first one pursues the opening and specialization characterizing the long-term evolution of the last 50 years of most French agricultural regions, while the second assumes a shift, already perceptible through weak signals, towards more autonomy at the farm and regional scales, a reconnection of crop and livestock farming and a more frugal human diet. A procedure is proposed to translate these qualitative narratives into a quantitative description of the corresponding nutrient fluxes using the GRAFS (Generalized Representation of Agro-Food Systems) methodology, thus allowing a comprehensive exploration of the agronomical and environmental performance of these two scenarios. The results show that the pursuit of the opening and specialization of French agriculture, even complying with regulations regarding reasoned fertilization, would result in considerable environmental burdens namely in terms of water pollution. The scenario generalizing organic farming practices, reconnection of crop and livestock farming systems and a demitarian human diet makes it possible to meet the future national food demand while still exporting significant amounts of cereals to the international market and ensuring better groundwater quality in most French regions.

International audience ; Narratives of two prospective scenarios for the future of French agriculture were elaborated by pushing several trends already acting on the dynamics of the current system to their logical end. The first one pursues the opening and specialization characterizing the long-term evolution of the last 50 years of most French agricultural regions, while the second assumes a shift, already perceptible through weak signals, towards more autonomy at the farm and regional scales, a reconnection of crop and livestock farming and a more frugal human diet. A procedure is proposed to translate these qualitative narratives into a quantitative description of the corresponding nutrient fluxes using the GRAFS (Generalized Representation of Agro-Food Systems) methodology, thus allowing a comprehensive exploration of the agronomical and environmental performance of these two scenarios. The results show that the pursuit of the opening and specialization of French agriculture, even complying with regulations regarding reasoned fertilization, would result in considerable environmental burdens namely in terms of water pollution. The scenario generalizing organic farming practices, reconnection of crop and livestock farming systems and a demitarian human diet makes it possible to meet the future national food demand while still exporting significant amounts of cereals to the international market and ensuring better groundwater quality in most French regions.

International audience ; Narratives of two prospective scenarios for the future of French agriculture were elaborated by pushing several trends already acting on the dynamics of the current system to their logical end. The first one pursues the opening and specialization characterizing the long-term evolution of the last 50 years of most French agricultural regions, while the second assumes a shift, already perceptible through weak signals, towards more autonomy at the farm and regional scales, a reconnection of crop and livestock farming and a more frugal human diet. A procedure is proposed to translate these qualitative narratives into a quantitative description of the corresponding nutrient fluxes using the GRAFS (Generalized Representation of Agro-Food Systems) methodology, thus allowing a comprehensive exploration of the agronomical and environmental performance of these two scenarios. The results show that the pursuit of the opening and specialization of French agriculture, even complying with regulations regarding reasoned fertilization, would result in considerable environmental burdens namely in terms of water pollution. The scenario generalizing organic farming practices, reconnection of crop and livestock farming systems and a demitarian human diet makes it possible to meet the future national food demand while still exporting significant amounts of cereals to the international market and ensuring better groundwater quality in most French regions.

International audience ; Narratives of two prospective scenarios for the future of French agriculture were elaborated by pushing several trends already acting on the dynamics of the current system to their logical end. The first one pursues the opening and specialization characterizing the long-term evolution of the last 50 years of most French agricultural regions, while the second assumes a shift, already perceptible through weak signals, towards more autonomy at the farm and regional scales, a reconnection of crop and livestock farming and a more frugal human diet. A procedure is proposed to translate these qualitative narratives into a quantitative description of the corresponding nutrient fluxes using the GRAFS (Generalized Representation of Agro-Food Systems) methodology, thus allowing a comprehensive exploration of the agronomical and environmental performance of these two scenarios. The results show that the pursuit of the opening and specialization of French agriculture, even complying with regulations regarding reasoned fertilization, would result in considerable environmental burdens namely in terms of water pollution. The scenario generalizing organic farming practices, reconnection of crop and livestock farming systems and a demitarian human diet makes it possible to meet the future national food demand while still exporting significant amounts of cereals to the international market and ensuring better groundwater quality in most French regions.

International audience ; Narratives of two prospective scenarios for the future of French agriculture were elaborated by pushing several trends already acting on the dynamics of the current system to their logical end. The first one pursues the opening and specialization characterizing the long-term evolution of the last 50 years of most French agricultural regions, while the second assumes a shift, already perceptible through weak signals, towards more autonomy at the farm and regional scales, a reconnection of crop and livestock farming and a more frugal human diet. A procedure is proposed to translate these qualitative narratives into a quantitative description of the corresponding nutrient fluxes using the GRAFS (Generalized Representation of Agro-Food Systems) methodology, thus allowing a comprehensive exploration of the agronomical and environmental performance of these two scenarios. The results show that the pursuit of the opening and specialization of French agriculture, even complying with regulations regarding reasoned fertilization, would result in considerable environmental burdens namely in terms of water pollution. The scenario generalizing organic farming practices, reconnection of crop and livestock farming systems and a demitarian human diet makes it possible to meet the future national food demand while still exporting significant amounts of cereals to the international market and ensuring better groundwater quality in most French regions.

International audience ; Narratives of two prospective scenarios for the future of French agriculture were elaborated by pushing several trends already acting on the dynamics of the current system to their logical end. The first one pursues the opening and specialization characterizing the long-term evolution of the last 50 years of most French agricultural regions, while the second assumes a shift, already perceptible through weak signals, towards more autonomy at the farm and regional scales, a reconnection of crop and livestock farming and a more frugal human diet. A procedure is proposed to translate these qualitative narratives into a quantitative description of the corresponding nutrient fluxes using the GRAFS (Generalized Representation of Agro-Food Systems) methodology, thus allowing a comprehensive exploration of the agronomical and environmental performance of these two scenarios. The results show that the pursuit of the opening and specialization of French agriculture, even complying with regulations regarding reasoned fertilization, would result in considerable environmental burdens namely in terms of water pollution. The scenario generalizing organic farming practices, reconnection of crop and livestock farming systems and a demitarian human diet makes it possible to meet the future national food demand while still exporting significant amounts of cereals to the international market and ensuring better groundwater quality in most French regions.