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AbstractThe scientific study of war has not yet shown any indication of a major breakthrough. For such a breakthrough to materialize it is paramount to approach the war phenomenon from a dynamic systems perspective. Perceived from this angle, war is placed in both an evolutionary and systems point of view, specifically implying a vision of war as one aspect of the international political process, connected in various ways with other injurious forms of interaction as serious disputes and low level conflict behavior, but also supportive behavior like trade and co‐operation. War constitutes a 'normal' event: no less than other social phenomena, it is the result of different over‐time conjunctures of common underlying behavioral mechanisms and resulting processes of interaction occurring within the higher level system's structure. In view of the 'hypercomplex' nature of the concerned dynamics, the development of computer (simulation) models will become essential in the study of war and peace.

A call is made for research on reasons why wars occur & how war, as an unusual form of conflict resolution, is linked to behavior at lower levels of military disputes. Efforts should be directed toward developing & testing propositions from general explanatory principles. Both dynamic & systems theoretical perspectives are needed, & highly formalized approaches & techniques must be elaborated. Adapted from the source document.

It is contended that insight into why & how wars come about is lacking, especially how war, as a comparably rare form of conflict regulation, is connected to conflict behavior at lower levels of intensity, eg, military disputes & international conflict in general. It is this kind of basic theoretical insight that is important for diminishing the likelihood of large-scale violence in a world of uncertainty in which change & innovation constitute permanent features of economic, social, & political life everywhere, & as a result of which the value of mere experience & of historical or inductive generalizations as guides for action have diminished. Theoretical insight makes it conceivable to create decision support systems that would enhance the conflict-preventive & managing potential of major decision-making bodies in international politics. Modified AA

Although relatively much has been said and written already on civilian based defence, one hardly can deny that there has been not much of an increase in our understanding of this particular alternative security concept. Hence, in the present article an attempt is made to trace the factors, which are to be held responsible for this rather striking case of theoretical stagnation. The main argument boils down to the assertion that, up till now, to much energy has been invested in normative analysis and polemics. Together with the reality of a very restricted research capacity, this has led to an almost complete neglect of scientific research proper.Indeed, in the existing litterature it is hard to find any serious effort at theoretical articulation. One will search in vain for explicit stated modeis, testable hypotheses as welt as elaborated research strategies. Little wonder then, that hitherto scientific progress has been wanting. Accordingly, it is argued that to bring about any positive change in this respect in the future, a mere upgrading of the actual research capicity - as is so often advocated - wilt not suffice. Real progress is only to be expected, if more work is made of basic research.

This study presents the strategic hedging framework as a way to trace the determinants of the foreign policies of hedging states. We use the case of Chinese energy security strategy in the Middle East as an illustrative case study. It first uses four criteria to establish that China's energy security strategy in the Middle East is a strong example of strategic hedging behaviour. Then it examines the impact of oil production in the Middle East countries on the growth of Chinese economic relationships with these countries. The results of this study show clearly that oil production plays an important role in the Sino-Middle East relations. We find a positive relationship between oil production in Middle East countries, on the one hand, and the distribution and growth of China's trade and investment with these countries, on the other hand. These results confirm that strategic hedging behaviour leads to developing China's economic relations with the oil-producing countries in order to cover its growing needs for energy to support its economic growth. This article represents the first attempt to trace the impact of strategic hedging behaviour on the foreign policies of hedging states. Thus, it contributes to the support of the strategic hedging framework as a new theory in international relations.