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AbstractCovert use of contraception is a common but underreported and understudied phenomenon where one partner uses contraception without the other's knowledge. We used Demographic and Health Survey couple data to examine the relationship between wives' perceptions of husbands' fertility preferences and type of contraceptive use (overt vs. covert) in Benin, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Uganda, and Zambia using logistic regression. Wives who perceived that their husbands wanted more children than them had increased odds of using covertly, compared to those who perceived that husbands wanted the same number of children in all countries except Benin, and the strength of the relationships ranged from adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.89 (95 percent confidence interval (CI) 1.75–4.76) in Zambia to aOR 4.01 (95 percent CI 1.68–9.58) in Mali. Wives who reported not knowing their husbands' fertility preferences had increased odds of using covertly compared to wives who perceived that their husbands wanted the same number of children in all countries except Zambia, ranging from aOR 2.02 (95 percent CI 1.11–3.69) in Ethiopia to aOR 3.82 (95 percent CI 2.29–6.37) in Kenya. Our findings indicate that efforts to increase partner engagement to align couple's fertility preferences may encourage overt use.

AbstractExamining women's reproductive experiences over time reveals a more dynamic view of women's behaviors and needs than current status measures alone. This study uses sequence and cluster analyses, which are designed for identifying patterns and subgroups in longitudinal data. We apply these methods to contraceptive calendar data in Burundi to identify discrete clusters of women based on contraceptive and pregnancy behaviors over the past 5 years. We identify six unique clusters; three characterized by no use of contraception (85 percent of women) and three by use (16 percent). The Quiet Calendar cluster (42 percent) comprise women who neither experience pregnancy nor use contraception. Family Builder 1 (25 percent) and 2 (18 percent) both include women who experience two pregnancies, but differ in unmet need and lifetime experience with contraception. Modern Mother (8 percent), Consistently Covered Mother (6 percent), and Traditional Mother (2 percent) clusters differ by type of contraception used following pregnancy. Factors associated with cluster membership are need for family planning, lifetime experience with contraception, marital status, pregnancy intention, and age. This clustering approach provides a new, more holistic way to measure the diverse needs across unique subpopulations and can inform the development of multifaceted, adaptable strategies to meet women's dynamic fertility needs over the reproductive life course.

AbstractThe COVID‐19 pandemic was accompanied by social and economic changes previously associated with fertility delay and reduction, sparking widespread discussion of a "baby bust" in the United States. We examine fertility trends using restricted vital statistics data from California, a diverse population of 40 million, contributing 12 percent of U.S. births. Using time series models that account for longer‐run fertility trends, we observe modest, short‐term reductions in births from mid‐2020 through early 2021. Birth counts in subsequent months matched or even eased the pace of fertility decline since the 2008 recession and are unlikely a function of the pandemic alone. Responses to the pandemic were heterogeneous. Fertility declined markedly among the foreign‐born population, largely driven by changes in net migration. Among the U.S.‐born population, the short‐term pandemic‐attributable reductions were largest among older, highly educated people, suggesting mechanisms of fertility reduction disparately accessible to those with the most resources. We find no evidence of a strong population fertility response to the pandemic's accompanying employment shock, providing additional evidence of a growing divide between macroeconomic conditions and fertility patterns in the United States.

AbstractAlthough the reproductive calendar is the primary tool for measuring contraceptive dynamics in low‐income settings, the reliability of calendar data has seldom been evaluated, primarily due to the lack of longitudinal panel data. In this research, we evaluated the reproductive calendar using data from the Performance Monitoring for Action Project. We used population‐based longitudinal data from nine settings in seven countries: Burkina Faso, Nigeria (Kano and Lagos States), Democratic Republic of Congo (Kinshasa and Kongo Central Provinces), Kenya, Uganda, Cote d'Ivoire, and India. To evaluate reliability, we compared the baseline cross‐sectional report of contraceptive use (overall and by contraceptive method), nonuse, or pregnancy with the retrospective reproductive calendar entry for the corresponding month, measured at follow‐up. We use multivariable regressions to identify characteristics associated with reliability or reporting. Overall, we find that the reliability of the calendar is in the "moderate/substantial" range for nearly all geographies and tests (Kappa statistics between 0.58 and 0.81). Measures of the complexity of the calendar (number of contraceptive use episodes, using the long‐acting method at baseline) are associated with reliability. We also find that women who were using contraception without their partners/husband's knowledge (i.e., covertly) were less likely to report reliably in several countries.

Emerging theory and empirical work suggest that the 'Bruce Effect', or the increase in spontaneous abortion observed in non-human species when environments become threatening to offspring survival, may also appear in humans. We argue that, if it does, the effect would appear in the odds of twins among male and female live births. We test the hypothesis, implied by our argument, that the odds of a twin among male infants in Norway fell below, while those among females rose above, expected levels among birth cohorts in gestation in July 2011 when a deranged man murdered 77 Norwegians, including many youths. Results support the hypothesis and imply that the Bruce Effect operates in women to autonomically raise the standard of fetal fitness necessary to extend the gestation of twins. This circumstance has implications for using twins to estimate the relative contributions of genes and environment to human responses to exogenous stimuli.

AbstractContraceptive discontinuation for method‐related reasons, while presumably wanting to avoid pregnancy, is a common phenomenon and can contribute to high levels of unmet need and unplanned pregnancies. Some women discontinue contraceptive use and do not quickly resume a method ("stopping"), while others are able to quickly switch to another method to achieve their reproductive goal of avoiding pregnancy ("switching"). We use Demographic and Health Survey data from 48 countries to examine what differentiates women who were able to switch to another method versus those who ultimately stopped entirely, among women who discontinued contraception for method‐related reasons. Results show that wanting to limit births, having ever been married, and recent prior use are all associated with switching versus stopping. In addition, we find that women in West and Middle Africa were more likely to stop use compared to women in other regions. Addressing obstacles to contraceptive continuation, including effective method switching, among women who wish to delay or avoid pregnancy should be a priority for global and country initiatives aiming to deliver client‐centered care that supports women and couples to make their best family planning choices.

Male twin gestations exhibit higher incidence of fetal morbidity and mortality than singleton gestations. From an evolutionary perspective, the relatively high rates of infant and child mortality among male twins born into threatening environments reduce the fitness of these gestations, making them more vulnerable to fetal loss. Women do not perceive choosing to spontaneously abort gestations although the outcome may result from estimates, made without awareness, of the risks of continuing a pregnancy. Here, we examine whether the non-conscious decisional biology of gestation can be linked to conscious risk aversion. We test this speculation by measuring the association between household surveys in Sweden that gauge financial risk aversion in the population and the frequency of twins among live male births. We used time-series regression methods to estimate our suspected associations and Box–Jenkins modeling to ensure that autocorrelation did not confound the estimation or reduce its efficiency. We found, consistent with theory, that financial risk aversion in the population correlates inversely with the odds of a twin among Swedish males born two months later. The odds of a twin among males fell by approximately 3.5% two months after unexpectedly great risk aversion in the population. This work implies that shocks that affect population risk aversion carry implications for fetal loss in vulnerable twin pregnancies.

AbstractScholarly literature claims that health declines in populations when optimism about investing in the future wanes. This claim leads us to describe collective optimism as a predictor of selection in utero. Based on the literature, we argue that the incidence of suicide gauges collective optimism in a population and therefore willingness to invest in the future. Using monthly data from Sweden for the years 1973–2016, we test the hypothesis that the incidence of suicide among women of child-bearing age correlates inversely with male twin births, an indicator of biological investment in high-risk gestations. We find that, as predicted by our theory, the incidence of suicide at month t varies inversely with the ratio of twin to singleton male births at month t + 3. Our results illustrate the likely sensitivity of selection in utero to change in the social environment and so the potential for viewing collective optimism as a component of public health infrastructure.

Periviable infants (i.e., born before 26 complete weeks of gestation) represent fewer than .5% of births in the US but account for 40% of infant mortality and 20% of billed hospital obstetric costs. African American women contribute about 14% of live births in the US, but these include nearly a third of the country's periviable births. Consistent with theory and with periviable births among other race/ethnicity groups, males predominate among African American periviable births in stressed populations. We test the hypothesis that the disparity in periviable male births among African American and non-Hispanic white populations responds to the African American unemployment rate because that indicator not only traces, but also contributes to, the prevalence of stress in the population. We use time-series methods that control for autocorrelation including secular trends, seasonality, and the tendency to remain elevated or depressed after high or low values. The racial disparity in male periviable birth increases by 4.45% for each percentage point increase in the unemployment rate of African Americans above its expected value. We infer that unemployment-a population stressor over which our institutions exercise considerable control-affects the disparity between African American and non-Hispanic white periviable births in the US.

AbstractPeriviable infants (i.e., born before 26 complete weeks of gestation) represent fewer than .5% of births in the US but account for 40% of infant mortality and 20% of billed hospital obstetric costs. African American women contribute about 14% of live births in the US, but these include nearly a third of the country's periviable births. Consistent with theory and with periviable births among other race/ethnicity groups, males predominate among African American periviable births in stressed populations. We test the hypothesis that the disparity in periviable male births among African American and non-Hispanic white populations responds to the African American unemployment rate because that indicator not only traces, but also contributes to, the prevalence of stress in the population. We use time-series methods that control for autocorrelation including secular trends, seasonality, and the tendency to remain elevated or depressed after high or low values. The racial disparity in male periviable birth increases by 4.45% for each percentage point increase in the unemployment rate of African Americans above its expected value. We infer that unemployment—a population stressor over which our institutions exercise considerable control—affects the disparity between African American and non-Hispanic white periviable births in the US.