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Blog: Features – FiveThirtyEight
The second Republican presidential primary debate is less than two weeks away, so time is running out for GOP contenders to meet the Republican National Committee's qualification criteria. To make the Sept. 27 debate, each candidate must have at least 3 percent support in two qualifying national polls, or at least 3 percent in one […]
Blog: Features – FiveThirtyEight
Usually, Labor Day is considered the traditional start of campaign season — but here in 2023, it marks the end of the competitive phase of two heated special elections. Neither Rhode Island's 1st Congressional District nor Utah's 2nd is expected to be very competitive in November's general elections, so Tuesday's primaries will likely determine their […]
Blog: Features – FiveThirtyEight
At last week's Republican debate, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy arguably made the biggest splash of any candidate. Sharing center stage with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the entrepreneur spoke more than any contender other than former Vice President Mike Pence and even briefly surpassed the absent front-runner, former President Donald Trump, in Google search traffic. Built partly […]
Blog: Features – FiveThirtyEight
UPDATE (Aug. 22, 2023, 12:10 a.m.): On Monday night, the Republican National Committee confirmed that eight candidates would appear in Wednesday's debate: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former Vice President Mike Pence, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, North Dakota Gov. Doug […]
Blog: Features – FiveThirtyEight
The clock is ticking for Republican presidential hopefuls to lock in a spot on the debate stage. Candidates have until Monday evening — 48 hours before the first GOP primary debate on Aug. 23 — to meet the Republican National Committee's polling and donor requirements. As things currently stand, eight candidates have met the RNC's […]
Blog: Features – FiveThirtyEight
On Monday, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis issued the fourth indictment of former President Donald Trump this year, this time for activities related to Trump and associates' attempts to overturn the 2020 election result in Georgia. Have any of Trump's presidential primary opponents who might have an actual chance of winning the GOP nomination […]
Blog: Features – FiveThirtyEight
The Voting Rights Act of 1965 was supposed to settle the debate over race, redistricting and representation. Instead, it started new ones. Since the act prohibits states from reducing a minority group's ability to elect its candidate of choice, the creation — and erasure — of majority-minority districts has become a particularly contentious aspect of […]
Blog: Features – FiveThirtyEight
It may be the dog days of August, but elections never sleep. Today in Mississippi, voters head to the polls to pick their nominees for state and legislative offices, including governor and lieutenant governor. And Ohioans will vote on a ballot measure that would raise the threshold for passing future constitutional amendments (such as one […]
Blog: Features – FiveThirtyEight
With a presidential election on the docket in 2024, much of the political spotlight right now is shining on the race for the White House. But all over the country, there will also be a bevy of critical down-ballot contests, including all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Republicans took control of the […]
Blog: Features – FiveThirtyEight
And they're off! Six Republican presidential candidates appear to have qualified for their party's first primary debate on Aug. 23, thanks to a pair of polls from Beacon Research/Shaw & Company/Fox Business released on Sunday that measured the preferences of likely GOP voters in Iowa and South Carolina. Based on FiveThirtyEight's analysis, the two surveys […]
Blog: Features – FiveThirtyEight
When the Republican National Committee released its qualification rules for the GOP's first primary debate in August, a few Republican presidential contenders winced at the prospect of needing 40,000 unique donors to make the stage. Just six candidates have reached or eclipsed that mark so far, and it remains to be seen if some lesser-known […]
Blog: Features – FiveThirtyEight
We don't need to have major-party presidential nominees to have a conversation about a third-party spoiler candidate affecting the 2024 presidential election. Faced with the prospect of a rematch between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, at least two alternatives have already emerged: The bipartisan No Labels organization is working toward fielding a centrist […]
Blog: Features – FiveThirtyEight
It's July in the year before a presidential election, and a first-term president is running for reelection. Most of the time, nothing about this situation would merit more than a passing acknowledgment: The incumbent would face little intraparty opposition, and the media would be almost entirely focused on the other party's presidential primary. But President […]
Blog: Features – FiveThirtyEight
There's not a lot of love for the two-party system. Over the past decade, a majority of Americans have repeatedly told Gallup that the Republican and Democratic parties do such a poor job representing the American people that the country needs a third party. Given the dissatisfaction with the broader political environment, and with the […]
Blog: Features – FiveThirtyEight
Have you ever tried to push your way into an already crowded, narrow elevator in an old apartment building? In announcing his candidacy for the presidency on Thursday, former Rep. Will Hurd of Texas sought to do just that. Hurd has joined a growing collection of Republican presidential candidates who are positioning themselves as skeptical […]