Suchergebnisse

Front Matter -- Copyright -- Contents -- Figures -- Tables -- Author biographies -- 1. Introduction: national populism and the politicisation of borders in a changing Europe -- Part I National populists' construction of borders -- 2. The politicisation of borders in national-populist discourse: Geneva and Ticino during the COVID-19 pandemic -- 3. Convergence without conflict? Trans-border national-populist strategies in multi-scalar spaces of mobilisation

Combining rigorous analytical discussion with solid statistical examination, Gevorkyan undertakes a full macroeconomic review of the post-Soviet economies through to 2009, including a critical evaluation of the current crisis and the future outlook.

Annotation

Purpose
Offering an example of a small open developing economy, the purpose of this paper is to explore the reasons for relative stability in Armenia's foreign exchange market. Relying on a single currency and derived cross-currency exchange rates, the paper models short-term effects between exchange market pressure and financial and macroeconomic factors.


Design/methodology/approach
Following a literature review, the paper sets the macroeconomic context with an initial variance comparison of standard currency pairs and derived cross-currency exchange rates. Then, the core analysis is carried out with a vector error correction model, focusing on short-term cross-dynamics in monthly data. The orthogonal impulse response function analyses help solidify and further inform relevant conclusions.


Findings
Three broad factors influence Armenia's foreign exchange market: external push factors; domestic banking sector competition, and foreign currency risk perceptions; and domestic macroeconomic and dual, cross-pair, exchange rate target priorities. The central bank's implicit management of the foreign exchange market's expectations, pull factor, is consistent with trader market power's contribution to lower volatility. Yet, the risk of financial and real-sector decoupling remains.


Originality/value
The results are relevant for emerging markets attempting to leverage the global liquidity and low interest rates, while being exposed to external pressures in the post-crisis environment, in which international reserves may be scarce while currency stability is an implied priority. This study can be further adapted to a more comprehensive structural short-term analysis of currency determination or similar dynamics in other small open economies.

This collection empirically and conceptually advances our understanding of the intricacies of emerging markets' financial and macroeconomic development in the post-2008 crisis context. Covering a vast geography and a broad range of economic viewpoints, this study serves as an informed guide in the unchartered waters of fundamental uncertainty as it has been redefined in the post-crisis period. Contributors to the collection go beyond risks-opportunities analyses, looking deeper into the nuanced interpretations of data and economic categories as interplay of developing world characteristics in the context of redefined fundamental uncertainty. Those concerns relate to the issues of small country finance, the industrialization of the developing world, the role of commodity cycles in the global economy, sovereign debt, speculative financial flows and currency pressures, and connections between financial markets and real markets. Compact and comprehensive, this collection offers unique perspectives into contemporary issues of financial deepening and real macroeconomic development in small developing economies that rarely surface in the larger policy and development debates.

AbstractThis article chronicles the evolution of poverty in the formerly socialist economies of Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. The article is an analytical review covering the 30 years since the launch of market reforms with a reflection on the impacts of the COVID‐19 pandemic. The theoretical assumption in the 1990s of a seamless transition from a socialist, state‐led economy to a capitalist, market‐driven economy remained just that—an assumption. Many of the tangible improvements in living standards for the bulk of the population of the post‐socialist era have yet to materialize. Focusing on the smallest post‐socialist economies, with a bigger picture in mind, this study argues that a crisis of human well‐being has been lurking in the background—behind macroeconomic stabilization and growth since the early 2000s. This article contributes to the literature on socioeconomic resilience, restructuring, critical perspectives on poverty, and efforts to define and measure poverty holistically.