Suchergebnisse

Most adults are overweight or obese in many western countries. Several population-level interventions on the physical, economical, political, or sociocultural environment have thus attempted to achieve a healthier weight. These interventions have involved different weight-related behaviours, such as food behaviours. Agent-based models (ABMs) have the potential to help policymakers evaluate food behaviour interventions from a systems perspective. However, fully realizing this potential involves a complex procedure starting with obtaining and analyzing data to populate the model and eventually identifying more efficient cross-sectoral policies. Current procedures for ABMs of food behaviours are mostly rooted in one technique, often ignore the food environment beyond home and work, and underutilize rich datasets. In this paper, we address some of these limitations to better support policymakers through two contributions. First, via a scoping review, we highlight readily available datasets and techniques to deal with these limitations independently. Second, we propose a three steps' process to tackle all limitations together and discuss its use to develop future models for food behaviours. We acknowledge that this integrated process is a leap forward in ABMs. However, this long-term objective is well-worth addressing as it can generate robust findings to effectively inform the design of food behaviour interventions.

$\textbf{BACKGROUND}$ Blood-based or urinary biomarkers may play a role in quantifying the future risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and in understanding possible aetiological pathways to disease. However, no systematic review has been conducted that has identified and provided an overview of available biomarkers for incident T2D. We aimed to systematically review the associations of biomarkers with risk of developing T2D and to highlight evidence gaps in the existing literature regarding the predictive and aetiological value of these biomarkers and to direct future research in this field. $\textbf{METHODS AND FINDINGS}$ We systematically searched PubMed MEDLINE (January 2000 until March 2015) and Embase (until January 2016) databases for observational studies of biomarkers and incident T2D according to the 2009 PRISMA guidelines. We also searched availability of meta-analyses, Mendelian randomisation and prediction research for the identified biomarkers. We reviewed 3910 titles (705 abstracts) and 164 full papers and included 139 papers from 69 cohort studies that described the prospective relationships between 167 blood-based or urinary biomarkers and incident T2D. Only 35 biomarkers were reported in large scale studies with more than 1000 T2D cases, and thus the evidence for association was inconclusive for the majority of biomarkers. Fourteen biomarkers have been investigated using Mendelian randomisation approaches. Only for one biomarker was there strong observational evidence of association and evidence from genetic association studies that was compatible with an underlying causal association. In additional search for T2D prediction, we found only half of biomarkers were examined with formal evidence of predictive value for a minority of these biomarkers. Most biomarkers did not enhance the strength of prediction, but the strongest evidence for prediction was for biomarkers that quantify measures of glycaemia. $\textbf{CONCLUSIONS}$ This study presents an extensive review of the current state of the literature to inform the strategy for future interrogation of existing and newly described biomarkers for T2D. Many biomarkers have been reported to be associated with the risk of developing T2D. The evidence of their value in adding to understanding of causal pathways to disease is very limited so far. The utility of most biomarkers remains largely unknown in clinical prediction. Future research should focus on providing good genetic instruments across consortia for possible biomarkers in Mendelian randomisation, prioritising biomarkers for measurement in large-scale cohort studies and examining predictive utility of biomarkers for a given context. ; This study was supported by the Medical Research Council UK (grant reference no. MC_UU_12015/1), http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk/projects?ref=MC_UU_12015/1; Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO project number 825.13.004), http://www.nwo.nl/en/research-and-results/research-projects/i/85/10585.html; Innovative Medicines Initiative Joint Undertaking under EMIF grant agreement no. 115372, resources of which are composed of financial contributions from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013), http://www.emif.eu/about. GSK provided support in the form of salaries for DW, DJN, AS. Pfizer provided support in the form of salary to JMB.

Abstract
Suicide is a leading cause of death in the United States, particularly among adolescents. In recent years, suicidal ideation, attempts, and fatalities have increased. Systems maps can effectively represent complex issues such as suicide, thus providing decision-support tools for policymakers to identify and evaluate interventions. While network science has served to examine systems maps in fields such as obesity, there is limited research at the intersection of suicidology and network science. In this paper, we apply network science to a large causal map of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and suicide to address this gap. The National Center for Injury Prevention and Control (NCIPC) within the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently created a causal map that encapsulates ACEs and adolescent suicide in 361 concept nodes and 946 directed relationships. In this study, we examine this map and three similar models through three related questions: (Q1) how do existing network-based models of suicide differ in terms of node- and network-level characteristics? (Q2) Using the NCIPC model as a unifying framework, how do current suicide intervention strategies align with prevailing theories of suicide? (Q3) How can the use of network science on the NCIPC model guide suicide interventions?

In environmental participatory modeling (PM), both computer and non-computer-based modeling techniques are used to aid participatory problem description, solution, and decision-making actions in environmental contexts. Although many PM case studies have been published, few efforts have sought to systematically describe and understand dominant PM processes or establish best practices for PM. As a first step, we have reviewed a random sample of environmental PM case study articles (n = 60) using a novel PM process evaluation instrument. We found that significant work likely remains for PM to fully support participatory and integrated planning processes. While PM reports systematically address knowledge integration and learning, they often neglect the facilitation of a multi-value perspective within a democratic process, and the integration across organizations within a governance system. If not reported, we suspect these aspects are also neglected in practice. We conclude with key research and practice issues for improving PM as an approach for real-world participatory planning and governance.