Suchergebnisse

This article assesses the role and understanding of war's most inflexible factor—time—and its associated pressures and advantages in the Russo-Ukrainian War. While there seems to be no consensus on who might prevail (and of course the elements of what constitutes victory itself can vary), the passage of time—frequently understood in military terms as endurance and exhaustion—is a useful framework to assess the direction of the war, relative advantage at various stages, who may ultimately prevail, and under what conditions that may be possible. Although timetables and schedules have played an enormous role in military history, there appears to be no systematic assessment of the role of time in relation to strategy and victory in the Russo-Ukrainian war. This article sets out the fill that gap through a systematic comparison of time's passing and time pressures facing the combatants.

What will the long-term impact of President Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine be upon the Russian state? This article assesses the likely outcomes of the Kremlin's war of aggression in Ukraine across a spectrum of economic, military, political, and social factors to evidence the scale of Russian miscalculation regarding its disastrous decision to invade Ukraine, and argues for the inevitability of Russian strategic decline as a direct consequence of its reckless military adventurism.

Autocratic leaders rely on intelligence machineries for regime and personal security. They often manage large, powerful, unaccountable organisations, which they hold close. But, despite their close relationship with - and reliance upon - intelligence, autocrats also frequently struggle to use it to enhance decision-making and foreign policy, and consequently suffer avoidable intelligence failures. This article argues that Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 is illustrative of this broader, though understudied, pattern of autocratic mismanagement of strategic intelligence. The invasion was both spurred and accompanied by a catastrophic intelligence failure, the responsibility for which rests with Vladimir Putin, the arbiter of a system with limited capacity to offer dispassionate strategic assessments. His failure is characteristic of autocratic regimes assessing foreign developments, including Putin's Soviet predecessors. This article contributes to the emerging scholarship on intelligence in autocratic regimes by examining Putin's use of intelligence in the Ukraine War in the context of the broader literature on intelligence and decision.