Suchergebnisse

The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics has initiated
a number of useful studies on different aspects of the Third Five Year
Plan. Many of these studies have already yielded thought-provoking
articles, one of which is Dr. Bruce Glassburner's critique of the Third
Plan's sixth chapter on the balance of payments and external resources
[1]. 2. The main conclusion reached by Dr. Glassburner as a result of
his meticulous analysis of the balance of payments projections and
policies is that the Plan's export targets are overambitious and may be
difficult to achieve; that the import projections are conservative and
will not sustain the projected investment or consumption levels, and as
a consequence Pakistan may not be able to reduce reliance on foreign
assistance to the extent visualized in the Plan.

Attainment of the goals in the international sector of her
economy is essential for the achievements of Pakistan's growth goals for
the Third Five Year Plan. The Plan's growth goals are ambitious, as is
well known: whereas the increase in gross national product during the
overfulfilled Second Five Year Plan was Rs. 9,725 million, the increase
in GNP planned for 1965/66 through 1969/70 is to be Rs. 16,035 million
i. So are the goals in international trade and finance ambitious: in the
Second Plan period, Pakistan's foreign exchange earnings were Rs. 13,252
million [10, p. 96]. They are planned at Rs. 20,000 million for the next
five years. At the same time, foreign exchange requirements are to grow
(absolutely speaking) even more than earnings. Total international
payments by Pakistan during the Second Plan period were an estimated Rs.
21,260 millions [10, p. 96]. In the Third Plan period they are expected
by the planners to be Rs. 35,500 million [10, p. 98]. The widening gap
between earnings and foreign exchange requirements must somehow be met.
This means increasing exports, increasing foreign assistance, or both.
The Government of Pakistan has chosen both, but to attempt to accelerate
Pakistan's own earnings to a rate of growth greater than that of foreign
aid, so as to end the Plan period with a reduced proportional weight of
reliance on other nations.