Suchergebnisse

Ghana's experience in the Nkrumah era does not seem to be consistent with M. P. Todaro's probabilistic permanent income approach ("A Model of Labour Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries," American Economic Review 1969, Mar), to explain changes in the rate of Ru-Ur migration over time. The hypothesis excludes certain important variables & incorrectly specifies the economic variables. Examination of data covering the years 1955-1965 indicated that the migration pattern did not fit the pattern predicted by the Todaro equations. 3 possible explanations include: data inaccuracies, a crude equation of the Todaro hypothesis, & inability to calculate lags from available data. In reworking the equation, economic variables were respecified & a group of social, political, & educational variables were introduced. Rough estimates were made for 2 educational variables. Certain fundamental weaknesses in the probablistic approach may disqualify the Todaro hypothesis from any but a limited role. Migration is a 2 or more step process, the analysis of which may be inconsistent with the model of the economic man who is consistent in his actions. Migration is a reversible process, & is not always a permanent decision. A less aggregative, more cautious, less statistical approach to the study of migration may be indicated. 2 Tables, 1 Appendix. Modified HA.

THE case for taking a careful look at educational expenditure in African countries rests simply on its size, in relation to government expenditure as a whole and to national income. As Table I (overleaf) shows, most African governments devote a considerably higher proportion of their total spending to education than does, for instance, the British Government.