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AbstractRisk Analysis was first published in 1981, established with a vision to provide a platform for inquiry into fundamental risk‐related concepts and theories, and to disseminate new knowledge about methods and approaches for identifying, analyzing, evaluating, managing, and communicating risk. The journal has also contributed significantly to a scientific understanding of specific risks related to human health and safety, engineering, ecological, and social systems. Published on behalf of the Society for Risk Analysis, the journal has become a leading platform over its 40‐year history. Complementing recent celebratory overviews and perspectives on the evolution, achievements, and future challenges for Risk Analysis, this article presents a scientometric overview of the journal between 1981 and 2020. The study presents high‐level insights in the journal publication trends and structure and trends in the leading countries/regions, institutions, and authors, in relation to their respective collaboration networks. Furthermore, the structure and evolution of research focus issues is analyzed, and highly cited publications are identified. The findings are primarily intended to provide high‐level insights, which may be useful for early career academics and risk practitioners to understand the structure and development of the research domain, and its main contributors and topics, and for experienced researchers to reflect on the achievements and future developments.

Funding Information: The work received funding from SIMREC project (CBC 2014?2020), funded by the European Union, the Russian Federation and the Republic of Finland. The work also received funding from the Lloyd's Register Foundation, a charitable foundation, helping to protect life and property by supporting engineering-related education, public engagement and the application of research www.lrfoundation.org.uk. The contributions by the third author were undertaken in context of the project ?Safe Navigation and Environmental Protection?, thanks in part to funding from the Canada First Research Excellence Fund, through the Ocean Frontier Institute. The authors also thank Fang Li and Mikko Suominen for their valuable comments to the paper. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Author(s) Copyright: Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved. ; Ships navigating in ice inevitably encounter different ice conditions. Dynamic ice typically presents severe conditions when it is moving perpendicular towards the parallel midship section, which can lead to ships getting stuck in ice. This can cause delays for ships or even damage to the ship hull. However, there currently is no model to assess ship operability in this dynamic ice. This paper aims to develop a method to assess operability of ships in dynamic ice conditions, which can be used for ship routing to avoid ship stuck. The method is especially useful for emergency response planning purposes, e.g. for marine pollution preparedness and response planning, where an understanding of the operability of response vessels in dynamic ice conditions currently is lacking. First, a transit model is introduced for both independent navigation and escort operations, considering the additional ice resistance by dynamic ice. Then, a ship operability index is proposed based on the modelling of ship's performance. Case studies of independent navigation and escort operations in realistic dynamic ice conditions are investigated to compare with the simulated results. Reasonable agreement is obtained, indicating that the proposed method can be used for ship operability assessment in dynamic ice. ; Peer reviewed

This chapter is a proactive risk exploration of hypothetical remotely operated search and rescue (SAR) ships in the Canadian Arctic. The harsh and remote environment in the region, combined with complicated coastlines and many uncharted or poorly charted traffic routes, makes it one of the most challenging SAR areas. Canada has committed itself to safety, environmental protection and sovereign presence in the area by maintaining joint SAR centres of federal government departments and mobilizing private volunteers. The characteristics of Canadian SAR response in the Arctic rest with its high dependency on heavy equipment such as aircraft, helicopters and icebreakers, entailing prolonged hours of response time. As recent climate change impacts and maritime traffic increase in the northern waters disclose safety gaps, innovation in SAR assets is anticipated. The safety gaps may be filled by state-of-the-art remote control technology. This chapter discusses remotely operated unmanned ships for SAR response, exploring their opportunities, risk dimensions and governance implications.

This chapter is a proactive risk exploration of hypothetical remotely operated search and rescue (SAR) ships in the Canadian Arctic. The harsh and remote environment in the region, combined with complicated coastlines and many uncharted or poorly charted traffic routes, makes it one of the most challenging SAR areas. Canada has committed itself to safety, environmental protection and sovereign presence in the area by maintaining joint SAR centres of federal government departments and mobilizing private volunteers. The characteristics of Canadian SAR response in the Arctic rest with its high dependency on heavy equipment such as aircraft, helicopters and icebreakers, entailing prolonged hours of response time. As recent climate change impacts and maritime traffic increase in the northern waters disclose safety gaps, innovation in SAR assets is anticipated. The safety gaps may be filled by state-of-the-art remote control technology. This chapter discusses remotely operated unmanned ships for SAR response, exploring their opportunities, risk dimensions and governance implications.

Funding Information: The work in this paper has been supported by SIMREC project (CBC 2014-2020), funded by the European Union, the Russian Federation and the Republic of Finland. The contributions to this work by the second author were supported by the Canada Research Chairs Program, through a grant from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC). The authors also thank the reviewers for their constructive comments which have helped to improve a previous version of this article. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Authors ; Digitalization is becoming a trend in our modern society and systems. Meanwhile, risk analysis and management has rooted and been applied in various fields. Therefore, there is an increasing need to integrate risk analysis and management into the coming digital society. Risk has been represented digitally by the product of probability and consequence i.e. R=P×C traditionally. However, it has been increasingly discussed to include strength of evidence (SoE) in addition to the traditional consequence (C) and probability (P). Although much advance has been achieved along this direction, there still remains challenges, e.g. ambiguity in rating SoE and visual expression of risk diagrams. This paper focuses on addressing these issues and meanwhile aims to make the risk expression fully digital so that it is more efficient and flexible to be included in a system analysis and visualization. This is achieved firstly by reviewing state-of-the-art discussions on SoE assessment in risk management and identifying the remaining challenges. Then, the paper proposes an approach to address the challenges by forming a fuzzy logic SoE index based on fuzzy logic theory, which enables a transfer from linguistic variable to a digital one with the ambiguity avoided. After the SoE index is formed, it is applied into BNs as the node size index to demonstrate its practical application. Meanwhile, with the BNs forming the infrastructure to calculate and present consequences and probabilities, it showcases a new system risk management approach. All the variables in the system can be expressed in a risk diagram. This further enables an improved risk visualization, risk management and risk communication for system analysis, towards risk digitalization. ; Peer reviewed

The MIMIC project (Minimizing risks of maritime oil transport by holistic safety strategies) developed proactive management approaches to risks related to maritime oil transportation, focusing on the Gulf of Finland, in the Baltic Sea. In this sea area, the volume of oil transportation has nearly quadrupled during the past ten years. This has raised concern of major oil accidents. The project - estimated oil transportation volumes for years 2020 and 2030  - examined the composition of ship crews  - estimated oil accident probabilities  - estimated damage in ships caused by an accident, and the consequent oil outflow  - evaluated optional measures to control oil accident risks and produced a related decision support model  - developed tools for estimating the length of oiled shoreline after an accident  - developed tools for examining the recovery efficiency and optimal disposition of Finnish oil combating vessels and for forecasting the clean-up costs of oil spills  - improved operational tools for guiding oil combating activities  - identified and assessed security threats and pondered their connection to safety - analysed the prevailing regulatory system related to maritime safety  - developed a proposal for a proactive risk governance approach for the Gulf of Finland Oil transportation volumes in the Gulf of Finland for the years 2020 and 2030 were estimated by expert elicitation, and six different scenarios were built. The realization of the scenarios depends on several factors, such as political and economic development in Russia, and the policies of the EU. The composition of the crews of ships sailing in the Gulf of Finland and Archipelago Sea were examined. The survey showed that shipping crews are highly international in the Gulf of Finland, as in the whole Baltic Sea. The result involves a requirement to take multiculturalism into account in ship operations, to enhance the understanding of cultural differences and to improve intercultural communication. Probabilities for grounding accidents were assessed based on accident reports, and probabilities for collision accidents updated. The analysis indicates that inadequate communication and cooperation on the bridge is the most significant contributing factor in a grounding accident. A simulation model (accidental damage assessment model, ADAM) was developed for estimating the damage in ships caused by different types of accidents, and for predicting the consequent amount and duration of oil outflow. It was concluded that a large number of possible collision scenarios with the current structural configurations of ships would lead to an oil spill. Similarly for groundings, the kinetic energy of a vessel is sufficient to cause severe bottom damage and oil spill, depending on the bottom topology. The oil transportation scenarios and the results of the accident modelling were integrated into a Bayesian decision support model that enables examining the cause-effect relationships related to oil accidents and their consequences, and evaluating the costeffectiveness of different types of risk control options in reducing the risks of oil accidents. The cost-effectiveness of the ENSI (Enhanced Navigation Support Information) service, compulsory pilotage, and improved crashworthiness of ships was evaluated. According to the results, the ENSI service is the most cost-effective measure to control oil accident risks. A Bayesian decision support model was also developed for examining the recovery efficiency and optimal disposition of Finnish oil combating vessels in the Gulf of Finland. It was found out that the environmental and accident conditions have a bigger impact on the recovery efficiency than the disposition of the oil combating vessels. Another model was built for forecasting the clean-up costs of oil spills and for the optimization of a costeffective oil-combating fleet. Two approaches were used in assessing the extent of polluted shoreline as a consequence of accidental oil spills. The method developed within the project has potential as a generally applicable tool in estimating the length of polluted shoreline, but needs further development regarding scaling, computing efficiency, and user-friendliness. The project further developed tools for situation awareness building for oil spill response operations. The integrated Seatrack Web and SmartResponse Web applications enable upto-date assessment of the oil drifting in the sea and environmental values at risk, and thus facilitate decision making regarding effective oil combating activities. The SmartResponse Web includes also a model (ADAM) for assessing ship damage and leakage in a collision or grounding accident, and a section related to maritime security. Maritime security threats in the whole Baltic Sea were identified and assessed, and their connection to safety pondered. The study indicates that the current security level in the Baltic Sea is relatively good. A conceptual model was outlined for supporting the analysis and evaluation of security threats and facilitating the development of an integrated view on security and safety. The competence of the regulatory system and policy instruments in ensuring maritime safety in the Gulf of Finland were analysed and improvements were considered. Reanalysing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the existing policy instruments and supporting shipping companies to voluntarily improve their safety performance is recommended. MIMIC proposes establishing a proactive regional risk governance framework involving stakeholders, for analysing, managing and communicating maritime safety risks in the Gulf of Finland.