Suchergebnisse

Abstract
The paper shows how the original semi endogenous and balanced growth model of Phelps (1966), and my extended version of it (Gomulka, 1990), could be useful in explaining the key 'stylized facts' of global long-term growth so far, and in predicting its dynamics in the future. During the last two centuries the sector of R&D and education, producing qualitative changes, has been expanding in the world's most developed countries much faster than the sector producing conventional goods. The extended model is used to explore and evaluate. the consequences for the global long-term growth of the end of this unbalanced growth, of the completion of the catching up by most of the world's less developed countries, and of the expected eventual stabilization of the size of the world population. The theory yields a thesis, new in the literature, that the rate of global per capita GDP growth will eventually return to the historically standard very low level, thus implying that the world's technological revolution is going to be an innovation super-fluctuation.

AbstractPoland has been encouraging foreign direct investment, including the purchase of company shares, but has been attempting to limit the inflow of speculative short‐term capital. The policy so far has been effective without the use of any capital controls. The paper explains the policy and the reasons for its apparent success. The paper also discusses the evolving threats to macroeconomic stability of the Polish economy and policy responses to these threats.

This paper attempts to answer why growth in Poland, in the post‐1989 period, has been much faster than in other transition countries and why macroeconomic instability and a stagftation phenomenon, experienced by both Hungary 1995‐96) and the Czech Republic (1997‐98), have so far been successfully avoided in Poland. The paper discusses the roles in this dual success of specific initial conditions, of the model of transformation adopted, and of the choice of particular policies. The paper also discusses the reforms and polcies needed, and proposed in Poland under the Balcerowicz Plan Mark II, to increase domestic savings and sutain rapid growth in the longer term.