Suchergebnisse

In this article, the principal methods used in exploratory forecasting are described. These descriptions should serve two purposes. First, for someone who intends to make an exploratory forecast, they will provide information about the strengths and useful range of each technique. Second, they will also illustrate, directly and by implication, the frailties and limitations of the techniques so that forecasts, and plans based on them, can be better assessed.

Counterfactuals are turning points in the evolving future and are often used to describe how the present or future might be different if, at a past turning point, the other road had been taken. The purpose of this article is to apply counterfactual analysis that has often been used in studies of history to future studies, in particular to uncover unexpected events, such as "Black Swans." When we consider counterfacts as a tool for forecasting, we deal with unfinished business of the present. The fork in the road may be clear enough, but the choice of the path has not yet been made. But someday that choice may be made or will have to be made, and in speculating about it, we form images of the future and imagine scenarios based on chains of causality stretching forward from the fork. Thus, counterfactuals are our legacy to the future. In effect, we say to our children—or theirs: "Here are some issues left over from our time; sorry we couldn't solve them. We hope you have better luck."

1. "Bodyguard of Lies": Franklin D. Roosevelt and Defensible Deceit in Word War II. - 2. Political Leadership and "Dirty Hands": Winston Churchill and the City Bombing of Germany. - 3. No End of a Lesson: Vietnam and the Nature of Moral Choice in Foreign Policy. - 4. Noncombatant Immunity and Civilian Liability in Contempoary Asymmetric warfare. - 5. Power and Principle: The Statecraft of Theodore Roosevelt. - 6. The Higher Realism of Woodrow Wilson. - 7. Responsibility to Protect: Preventing Genocide and Mass Atrocities. - 8. Realism and Idealism in Historical Perspective: Otto von Bismarck. - 9. Konrad Adenauer, Arms and Redemption of Germany. - 10. Eduard Shevardnadze and the End of the Soviet System: Necessity and Choice. - 11. "The Lady Doth Protest Too Much": Intervention and the Turn of Ethics in International Law. - 12. Human Security. - 13. Drone Ethics. - 14. Ethics and Targeted Sanctions