Forecast accuracy measures for exception reporting using receiver operating characteristic curves
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 25, Heft 1, S. 48-61
ISSN: 0169-2070
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In: International journal of forecasting, Band 25, Heft 1, S. 48-61
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 10, Heft 1, S. 1-4
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: Public administration review: PAR, Band 46, S. 532
ISSN: 1540-6210
In: Policy sciences: integrating knowledge and practice to advance human dignity ; the journal of the Society of Policy Scientists, Band 25, Heft 2, S. 117
ISSN: 0032-2687
In: Decision sciences, Band 16, Heft 2, S. 153-160
ISSN: 1540-5915
ABSTRACTExperiments contrasted judgmental and objective forecast methods. Judgmental methods included "eyeball" extrapolation of time‐series plots and judgmental adjustment. Objective methods included Box‐Jenkins (BJ), Carbone‐Longini AEP filtering (CL), Holt‐Winters (HW), and other smoothing techniques. Objective methods proved more accurate than eyeball extrapolation. However, judgmental adjustment improved the accuracy of some objective forecasts.
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 31, Heft 2, S. 253-262
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 29, Heft 2, S. 274-281
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 25, Heft 3, S. 463-466
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 5, Heft 3, S. 303-304
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: Decision sciences, Band 14, Heft 2, S. 221-239
ISSN: 1540-5915
ABSTRACTDecision support for managers and policy makers, such as required in planning and evaluation efforts, often requires ad hoc behavioral modeling to account for context‐specific phenomena and to handle data limitations. This paper introduces a systematic approach useful for meeting these requirements in which time‐varying parameter estimation plays an important role. A case study evaluating the impacts of public policy actions on residential natural gas conservation illustrates the approach.
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 10, Heft 1, S. 17-34
ISSN: 0169-2070
Introducing GIS for police work -- Exploring ArcGIS desktop -- Using crime maps -- Building crime maps -- Querying crime maps -- Assembling jurisdiction feature classes -- Geocoding crime incident data -- Automating crime mapping -- Predictive policing for crime hot spots
In: Public administration review: PAR, Band 48, Heft 4, S. 823
ISSN: 1540-6210
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 5, Heft 3, S. 307-319
ISSN: 0169-2070