The multi-agent modelling of the french labor market ; La modélisation multi-agent du marché du travail français
This thesis presents an agent-based model of the labor market. The model simulates the market at the aggregate level and at the level of the principal manpower categories, on the basis of the decisions of heterogenous agents, firms and individuals, who interact. These decisions rely on computations of profits and utilities in a context of bounded rationality. The theoretical structure that underlies the decisions is the search concept. We apply this framework to the case of France in 2011. The model is at a scale of 1/4700. It is fairly detailed on the institutions of the labor market which constrain the agents' decisions. Subsequently, it is calibrated by a powerful algorithm to reproduce a large number of variables of interest. The calibrated model presents a coherent accounting system of the gross flows of the individuals between the main states, employment, distinguishing open ended contracts and fixed duration contracts, unemployment and inactivity. The simulation of the gross flows enables us to analyse the patterns of mobility and to characterize the nature of the labor market under study, reproducing the high proportion of the fixed duration contracts in the hiring flows, and it points to a dualism of the French labor market. Modeling crowding out of some categories of workers (for instance the youths) by others is then a main contribution of the model to the labor market analysis. Finally, we study economic policies according to various indicators. We show that it is difficult to find a public policy which provides good results for all criteria and which is beneficial both for firms and individuals. It is all a question of compromise and political choice. ; Cette thèse présente un modèle multi-agent du marché du travail. Le modèle reproduit le fonctionnement du marché tant au niveau agrégé, qu'au niveau des principales catégories de main-d'œuvre, sur la base des décisions d'agents hétérogènes, entreprises et individus, qui interagissent. Les décisions reposent sur des calculs de profits et d'utilités et ...