Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration
In: NBER Working Paper No. w25334
6 Ergebnisse
Sortierung:
In: NBER Working Paper No. w25334
SSRN
In: The economic journal: the journal of the Royal Economic Society, Band 131, Heft 635, S. 1150-1185
ISSN: 1468-0297
Abstract
We estimate the uncertainty effects of preferential trade disagreements. Increases in the probability of Britain's exit from the European Union (Brexit) reduce bilateral export values and trade participation. These effects are increasing in trade policy risk across products. We estimate that at the average disagreement tariff of 4.5% the increase in the probability of Brexit after the referendum lowered EU–UK bilateral export values between 11–20%. Neither the EU or UK exporters believed a trade war was likely.
In: Journal of international economics, Band 96, Heft 1, S. 119-137
ISSN: 0022-1996
In: CESifo Working Paper No. 9353
SSRN
SSRN
In: Economics letters, Band 123, Heft 2, S. 149-153
ISSN: 0165-1765