Can Registration-Based Sampling Improve the Accuracy of Midterm Election Forecasts?
In: The public opinion quarterly: POQ, Volume 70, Issue 2, p. 197-223
ISSN: 1537-5331
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In: The public opinion quarterly: POQ, Volume 70, Issue 2, p. 197-223
ISSN: 1537-5331
In: Comparative political studies: CPS, Volume 30, Issue 4, p. 450-483
ISSN: 0010-4140
In: Public opinion quarterly: journal of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Volume 57, Issue 4, p. 503-535
ISSN: 0033-362X
In: Public opinion quarterly: journal of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Volume 53, Issue Spring 89
ISSN: 0033-362X
Argues that self-interest plays a decisive role in shaping attitudes toward smoking restrictions and cigarette taxes. Data from 2 random samples indicate that nonsmokers are far more enthusiastic about tightening smoking restrictions and increasing cigarette taxes than smokers, particularly heavy smokers. Discusses several explanations for the apparent discrepancy between these results and the pattern of null findings characteristic of the self-interest literature. (Abstract amended)
In: The public opinion quarterly: POQ, Volume 76, Issue 3, p. 491-511
ISSN: 1537-5331
In: Electoral Studies, Volume 22, Issue 4, p. 563-579
Political campaigns currently make extensive use of direct mail, particularly in state & local races, yet its effects on voter behavior are not well understood. This essay presents the results of large-scale randomized field experiments conducted in CT & NJ during state & municipal elections of 1999. Tens of thousands of registered voters were sent from zero to nine pieces of direct mail. The target populations included party registrants with a strong history of voter participation, independents, & a random subset of registered voters. Our results indicate partisan campaign mail does little to stimulate voter turnout & may even dampen it when the mail is negative in tone. 4 Tables, 1 Appendix, 16 References. Adapted from the source document.
In: Public opinion quarterly: journal of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Volume 58, Issue 1, p. 49-67
ISSN: 0033-362X
In: Public opinion quarterly: journal of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Volume 54, Issue Spring 90
ISSN: 0033-362X
Examines the role of race in elections where one of the candidates is black. Using the 1982 California gubernatorial election, shows that whereas racial attitudes were a significant influence on the voting of whites, Bradley's background did not stimulate unusual levels of racially motivated behavior. Argues that the impact of a candidate's race depends on a number of contextual factors, including his prior record and campaign style. (Abstract amended)
In: Journal of survey statistics and methodology: JSSAM, Volume 3, Issue 1, p. 43-66
ISSN: 2325-0992
In: Social science quarterly, Volume 82, Issue 2, p. 281-296
ISSN: 0038-4941
Objectives. The study of crime directed at gay & lesbian targets is hampered by two measurement problems: Police agencies provide unreliable data on hate crime, & tract-level census data contain no direct information about gay or lesbian population density. This article attempts to gauge two quantities that cannot be measured directly or unambiguously: the size of the gay & lesbian populations & the number of hate crimes directed at gay & lesbian targets. Methods. Population data for New York City were gathered from market research lists & from a special tabulation of the 1990 Census. Hate crime data were obtained from the Anti-Violence Project & the New York Police Dept. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to assess the reliability of each measure & the correlation between latent population density & hate crime. Results. Each of these measures offers a reliable means by which to assess cross-sectional differences in the population density & victimization of gay men. Census & police data prove to be inferior indicators of lesbian population density & antilesbian hate crime. For both men & women, population density is strongly correlated with the incidence of hate crime. Conclusions. Despite the fact that advocacy groups record many more antigay incidents than do the police, both sources of data are in agreement about where hate crimes occur. The strong correlation between population density & hate crime against gay men implies that Census data could be used to forecast the occurrence of hate crime in areas where no police records exist. 3 Tables, 2 Figures, 15 References. Adapted from the source document.