Low-carbon Europe 2050: decomposition analysis of long-term projections for the European Union and selected member states
In: Climate change 2019, 28
In: Ressortforschungsplan of the Federal Ministry for the Enviroment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety
This report presents a thorough analysis of drivers for decarbonization in different scenario studies. Selected baseline and emission reduction scenarios from a range of studies on the EU, including some EU member states, were analysed to generate insights into: Which decarbonization strategies exist? Which sectors already show a clear decarbonization strategy? In which sectors is the decarbonization strategy less obvious or clear as significantly different and mutually excluding strategies are researched? Are there sectors where decarbonization is particularly difficult and which are those? What issues have not been addressed in the existing scenarios so far? Besides a generic comparison a decomposition analysis was applied to these scenarios to identify key drivers for changes in emissions in the scenarios. The studies under consideration include at least one ambitious climate protection scenario, and provide a sufficient level of detail with regard to the quantitative results to allow for applying the framework of the analysis. In addition to an analysis of total energy-related CO2 emissions, this study analyses major energy-related sectors on the supply and demand side: electricity supply, industry, tertiary, residential and transport (where possible differentiated by passenger and freight). A comparison of findings and a synthesis along with a detailed data appendix complete the report.