Suchergebnisse

The demand for law on the part of the society (business, middle class, civil society) is not sufficient at the transformation stage — the reciprocal demand for law from the power elite is necessary. Modern theory states that in the contrary case the pressure on elites would require more open regime of participation. Strengthening the positions of the power elite in the long-run would require limiting endless redistribution of assets and introducing the common rule for all.

The article focuses on key reasons for capital formation relative lagging during the economic upturn. Still not clear property rights, the long process of formatting of the ownership, weak corporate governance have delayed the turnaround to the investment boom. The structure of economy, sales and industry profitability determines the structure of investments, but it does not lead to sufficient investments in the research sector and manufacturing. The financial sector shows high dynamics, but it can not supply enough "long" money with a huge export of capital. Capital formation has not been influenced by any investment policy. In essence it was the "Inertia" scenario which during the long crisis led to aggravating problems in the economy. These problems have not been solved in the upturn. This situation stimulates the government to use its financial resources in the context of the "Mobilization" scenario that creates more difficulties for the "Modernization" scenario.

The article analyzes the investment-saving balance in developed and developing countries and groups of countries. Main determinants of investment and saving decisions of different economic agents are derived from well-known theoretic papers. The analysis of pre-crisis investment-saving balance is performed with a focus on specific role of USA and China in the global financial intermediation system. A crisis shift in US households saving behavior is revealed, and it is treated as an additional source of financing American deficits. Maintenance of high personal saving rate of US households is considered to be the key factor to support post-crisis growth.

The modern theory of cyclical fluctuations and its relevancy to actual processes in the global economy are discussed in the article. It points to the limited applicability of the theory to practical needs of households, businesses and governments. Possible directions of the theory evolution are considered: more focus on financial shocks, strengthening microeconomic foundations, selection of more homogeneous periods with specific features and shocks for analysis. The breakdown of post-war period into three relatively homogeneous sub-periods named "stationary regimes" is proposed. These sub-periods are separated on the basis of quantitative and qualitative analysis of the group of economic indicators. The global crisis of 2008-2009 is defined as a turning point between the 3rd and the expected 4th "stationary regimes". Assumptions are suggested concerning possible features of economic growth in the next "stationary regime" as well as their reflection in the theory of cycle.

Ambitious targets were set up at the start of independent development of the Baltic States. But they were met only partially. The Baltic recession which has been lasting for more than two years now and definitely will continue through this year has turned out to be the deepest in the EU. Reinforced by the global economic crisis this recession has put an end to their initial development model. Now all the three states need new ideas and a new growth strategy. Among other factors, the current crisis is rooted in active deindustrialization, politically-led privatization and politically-biased orientation only to the EU. Now it is clear that service, transit and tourism are not sufficient for sustainable growth. Closer cooperation with the East is part of the solution.

The article studies the main problems of Russian oil and gas complex. The authors argue that global economic and financial crisis has already led not only to certain reduction in energy consumption, but to serious changes in the global energy sector. In the medium term we may expect globally more efforts in energy savings, climate change prevention, and deeper innovation impact. It may require a serious adaptation of Russian energy sector to new tendencies: some reconfiguration of demand for our export, certain limitation on financial resources and reconsidering its future role in the global balance. Long-term project approach should be applied to help Russian energy and manufacturing companies adjust to new economic environment. Institutional background in Russian energy sector should be adequate to address domestic problems and global competition.

Main factors and development of the global financial crisis-2008 are generally discussed in the paper. The downturn in one of the local sectors of the US economy has caused major threats to functioning global financial markets. Structural problems of the Russian financial sector ("illusion of adequacy") have greatly enhanced negative consequences of the global crisis for the Russian economy. On the global level, main steps to minimize the costs of the crisis should deal with limiting protectionism growth, coordinating measures of economic policy and preventing a hard landing of a large group of economies.

The article considers the problem of corruption as impediment for country's modernization. Using neoinstitutional approach, the authors offer the classification of corruption in the context of private and political markets for institutions, relevant social groups and economic effects. According to the given classification they analyze the dynamics of corruption constituents depending on Russia's development strategies and reveal the incentives of main social groups to fight corruption.

The paper cosiders the strategy of Russian society, government, and economy modernization, aimed at transformation of the state into one of the world intellectual and cultural leaders. The reasons of past modernization attempts failures are shortly analyzed. General restrictions of any development strategy as a requirement of preserving some critical parameters are described. The goals and restrictions of Russia's modernization conditioned by the current state of its socio-economic system are detailed.