Suchergebnisse

A standard DSGE small open economy model can not generate the cyclical regularities of middle-income countries. It predicts excessive consumption smoothing, and procyclical, instead of countercyclical, real net exports. Previous studies have solved this problem by increasing the shocks' persistence or by lowering the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. This paper tackles the problem by introducing market imperfections relevant for MICs into an otherwise standard model. More specifically, I build a model with limited access to the foreign capital market, identified as an external borrowin

Empirical evidence for small developed economies finds that consumption is procyclical and as volatile as output, and real net exports are coutercyclical. Earlier studies have not been able to reproduce these regularities in a DSGE small open economy model when productivity shocks drive the business cycles and households have a normal intertemporal elasticity of substitution. Instead, these studies have reduced this elasticity to make consumption more procyclical and volatile and real net exports countercyclical. This paper shows that a standard model can reproduce these regularities, without

Cover -- The Rewards of Fiscal Consolidation: Sovereign Spreads and Confidence Effects -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Data -- 2.1 Fiscal austerity announcements -- 2.2 EMBI spreads and IMF supported program dates -- 3 The e ects of austerity announcements on sovereign spreads -- 3.1 Local Projection Model -- 3.2 Results -- 4 Assessing the transmission channels: fiscal announcements, confidence, and economic activity -- 4.1 Identifying the e ects of austerity announcement shocks: a panel VAR approach -- 4.2 Results -- 5 Conclusion -- References.

This paper investigates the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine the historical record, including Budget Speeches and IMFdocuments, to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Using this new dataset, our estimates suggest fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on private domestic demand and GDP. By contrast, estimates based on conventional measures of the fiscal policy stance used in the literature support the expansionary fisca

Cover -- Contents -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- Contributors -- Abbreviations -- PART I. BUILDING UPON A STRONG FOUNDATION -- 1 Realizing Indonesia's Economic Potential: An Overview -- 2 Twenty Years after the Asian Financial Crisis -- PART II. STRUCTURAL REFORM -- 3 Boosting Potential Growth -- 4 Developing Infrastructure -- PART III. PUBLIC FINANCE -- 5 Supporting Inclusive Growth -- 6 Implementing a Medium-Term Revenue Strategy -- PART IV. CROSS-BORDER TRADE AND FINANCE -- 7 Spillovers from the International Economy -- 8 Linkages to the World Economy -- 9 Diversifying Merchandise Exports -- 10 Determinants of Capital Flows -- PART V. MONETARY AND FINANCIAL POLICY -- 11 Advancing Financial Deepening and Inclusion -- 12 Managing Macro-Financial Linkages -- 13 Reinforcing Financial Stability -- Index -- A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F -- G -- H -- I -- J -- K -- L -- M -- N -- O -- P -- R -- S -- T -- U -- V -- W -- Y

How will the world-wide decline in real interest rates associated with global aging affect small open economies (SOEs) with aging populations? Lower interest rates will result in higher capital-labor ratios and increased wages; higher wages, in turn, will be passed on to pension benefits, exacerbating aging-related fiscal pressures. The pass-through effect will be stronger if pensions are indexed to nominal wages rather than prices. Using an overlapping generations model, the paper illustrates the interest rates transmission mechanism and its interaction with pension indexation for the case of

This paper evaluates the macroeconomic and welfare effects of extending the averaging period used to calculate pension benefits in a pay-as-you-go system. It also examines the complementarities between reforms extending the averaging period and those increasing the retirement age under alternative tax policies. The analysis is based on a model in the Auerbach-Kotlikoff tradition applied to the Spanish economy. Without reforms, the simulations suggest that aging-related spending as a share of output will increase 16 percentage points by 2050, which are twice as much as in European Commission (2

This paper presents a new dataset of fiscal consolidation for 17 OECD economies during 1978-2009. We focus on discretionary changes in taxes and government spending primarily motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by a response to prospective economic conditions. To identify the motivation and budgetary impact of the fiscal policy changes, we examine contemporaneous policy documents, including Budgets, Budget Speeches, central bank reports, Convergence and Stability Programs submitted by the authorities to the European Commission, and IMF and OECD reports. The resulting ser