Suchergebnisse

Emerging markets and developing economies are currently facing major challenges from global shocks, including a slowdown in global growth; food and energy price increases; decline in risk appetite of international investors; unsustainable debts in low-income countries; and ongoing climate risks. National policies have not sufficed to meet these challenges. Efforts at the national level must be complemented by changes in the global economic and financial architecture designed to make the world a safer place. In this article, we focus on the financial aspects of such reforms. The financial agenda as we see it has seven key elements: (i) reform of central bank swap lines, (ii) reform of IMF-contingent credit lines, (iii) SDR reallocation, (iv) reform of credit rating agencies, (v) creation of currency hedging instruments, (vi) inclusion of climate-resilient debt clauses in new debt instruments and (vii) steps to streamline the debt restructuring process. We detail this agenda and urge the G20 members to implement the recommended measures. JEL Codes: E44, E58, E61, F34, F36, F38

The recent reversal of capital flows to emerging markets has pointed up the continuing relevance of the sudden stop problem. This paper analyzes the sudden stops in capital flows to emerging markets since 1991. It shows that the frequency and duration of sudden stops have remained largely unchanged, but that the relative importance of different factors in their incidence has changed. In particular, global factors appear to have become more important relative to country-specific characteristics and policies. Sudden stops now tend to affect different parts of the world simultaneously rather than bunching regionally. Stronger macroeconomic and financial frameworks have allowed policy makers to respond more flexibly, but these more flexible responses have not guaranteed insulation or mitigated the impact of the phenomenon. These findings suggest that the challenge of understanding and coping with capital-flow volatility is far from fully met.

We offer the first test of the hypothesis that rapid growth helps incumbents win elections for a developing country, India. We generalize the Fair (1978) model to allow for multiple candidates and test it using cross‐state data on 422 candidates in the 2009 parliamentary elections. We find quantitatively large and statistically robust effect of growth on the prospects of the candidates of the state incumbent parties to win elections.