Suchergebnisse

This article describes some results of a successful attempt to assess and refine a causal model of the general conditions of several forms of civil strife, using cross-sectional analyses of data collected for 114 polities. The theoretical argument, which is discussed in detail elsewhere, stipulates a set of variables said to determine the likelihood and magnitude of civil strife. Considerable effort was given here to devising indices that represent the theoretical variables more closely than the readily-available aggregate indices often used in quantitative cross-national research. One consequence is an unusually high degree of statistical explanation: measures of five independent variables jointly account for two-thirds of the variance among nations in magnitude of civil strife (R = .80, R2 = .64).It should be noted at the outset that this study does not attempt to isolate the set of conditions that leads specifically to "revolution," nor to assess the social or political impact of any given act of strife except as that impact is reflected in measures of "magnitude" of strife. The relevance of this kind of research to the classic concern of political scholarship with revolution is its attempt at identification and systematic analysis of conditions that dispose men to strife generally, revolution included.

Until recently many political scientists tended to regard violent civil conflict as a disfigurement of the body politic, neither a significant nor a proper topic for their empirical inquiries. The attitude was in part our legacy from Thomas Hobbes's contention that violence is the negation of political order, a subject fit less for study than for admonition. Moreover, neither the legalistic nor the institutional approaches that dominated traditional political science could provide much insight into group action that was regarded by definition as illegal and the antithesis of institutionalized political life.

"Technological change is a prime mover in the course of economic development. Historically, invention and innovation have led the process of growth in advanced countries. Imitation by less advanced countries affords them a short cut to higher levels of living."

pt. 1. Theories of rebellion, repression, and responses to scarcity -- pt. 2. The Minorities at Risk project : patterns, causes and management of ethnopolitical conflict -- pt. 3. Protest, rebellion, terrorism : outcomes and alternatives -- pt. 4. Out of Africa.

"This volume comprises key essays by Ted Robert Gurr on the causes and consequences of organized political protest and rebellion, its outcomes and strategies for conflict management. From the Castro-inspired revolutionary movements of Latin America in the 1960s to Yugoslavia's dissolution in ethnonational wars of the 1990s, and the popular revolts of the Arab Spring, millions of people have risked their lives by participating in protests and rebellions. Based on half a century of theorizing and social science research, this book brings together Gurr's extensive knowledge and addresses the key questions surrounding this subject: What grievances, hopes and hatreds motivated the protesters and rebels? What did they gain that might have offset myriad deaths and devastation? How effective are protest movements as alternatives to rebellions and terrorism? What public and international responses lead away from violence and toward reforms? The essays in the volume are updated and are organized around the evolving themes of the author's research, including theoretical arguments, interpretations and references to the evidence developed in his empirical research and case studies. The concluding essays bring theory and evidence to bear on the past and future of political violence in Africa. This book will be of much interest to student of rebellion, political violence, conflict studies, security studies and IR"--Provided by publisher