Suchergebnisse

To whom does the South belong politically, now that an all-southern ticket has reclaimed the White House for the Democratic party? Review of 1992 voting returns for national, statewide, and legislative races in the South, contrasted with those from earlier presidential years, lead to only one conclusion: the South continues to move toward the Republican party. The Clinton-Gore ticket ran behind its percentage of the national vote in most southern states, as well as behind all Democratic candidates in statewide races, and would have won without any southern electoral votes; whereas Bush-Quayle ran ahead of their percentage of the national vote in every southern state except Clinton's Arkansas, while Republicans gained seats in southern legislatures and congressional delegations. It is suggested that southern electoral college votes won by Democratic presidential candidates in 1976 and 1992 hinged upon Democratic vote-getters in races for statewide offices in each state carried except the presidential candidates' home states.

With an identical data base -- the U of Michigan Survey Research Center/Center for Political Studies election studies conducted over the 1952-1976 period -- scholars arrive at conflicting conclusions about the future politics of the South. One problem is alternative regional definitions -- the survey category Solid South (which includes the states of the former Confederacy minus Tenn) or the combined categories Solid South & Border South. Another problem is the choice to analyze native whites, whites, or all election participants. Survey data presented here show that these choices are not neutral; rather, they influence research findings. If the intent is to build on the aggregate data-based research of V. O. Key, Jr., & others, one should use the Solid South definition. Moreover, if the intent is to predict the future politics of the South, one should analyze all election participants. 5 Tables. AA.