Suchergebnisse

AbstractSince it took effect, the EU‐Turkey refugee agreement has been the subject of intense debate. While critics argue that it was politically short‐sighted, others point out that quick action was necessary to avert both a humanitarian crisis in Greece and the collapse of the Schengen system due to the unwillingness of EU member states to share responsibility. Since the agreement took effect, the most serious problems lay in the implementation process, which has revealed a troubling tendency among EU leaders to disregard the fundamental human rights abuses in Turkey. In the southeast, for example, the Turkish government is waging a full‐blown war against its Kurdish population, while a failed coup d'état in July 2016 put the country under a state of emergency that has led to even greater repression and growing reports of violations of asylum law. Ultimately, this agreement may fail, but it will remain necessary for the EU to cooperate with Turkey in order to control migration and work towards developing a comprehensive migration policy. Drawing on lessons from the agreement, this paper shall consider ways forward for future EU migration agreements with third countries.

This paper looks into the future of EU-Turkey relations, which, in the last half of the century have been marked by ups and downs. Recently, the relationship came to a standstill, with both parties to be blamed for a vanishing enthusiasm in moving the relationship forward. Yet, what today seems to be a closed chapter, might well, in the next 15 years, develop into a working relationship, with both Turkey and the EU benefiting from a functional cooperation. Applying the foresight methodology, which helps avoid prejudging the future of the EU-Turkey relations, we came up with three scenarios thereof, namely down in the dumps, frenernies in flexible and functional cooperation and into the European fold. The scenarios are informed by three drivers, that are the intra-EU dynamics, internal developments in Turkey, and the situation in the joint neighbourhood, which we see as key determinants of the possible EU-Turkey futures.