Suchergebnisse

We examine two related questions that are key for understanding collaborative outcomes in complex governance systems. The first is the extent to which collaboration among policy actors depends upon their joint participation in policy forums. The second is how the scales at which these forums operate conditionally affect the likelihood of collaboration. We address these questions using data from a recent survey on actors' collaborative interactions as well as their participation in climate change adaptation policy forums in the Lake Victoria region in East Africa. Exponential random graph models show that actors are more likely to collaborate if they jointly participate in policy forums. However, this effect weakens at progressively higher spatial levels at which forums operate. Similarly, collaboration is less likely among actors jointly participating in forums that sponsor decision making at the higher collective choice level rather than lower operational choice level. While policy forums may catalyze collaboration, our findings suggest that their capacity to do so may be subject to scale‐dependent transaction costs of political contracting.

This grounded theory study was designed to investigate the factors that influenced 20 "traditional" university freshmen to withdraw prior to the end of their first year at two Midwestern universities. A two-hour audio- taped interview was conducted with each of the participants, and the grounded theory method was utilized to analyze the interview data. Eighteen of the twenty participants had strong high school GPAs and ACT scores, and would not have been identified as being at-risk for attrition. The grounded theory that emerged from the participants' data indicated that an absence of clear educational goals, as well as individual and institutional distractions, interacted to contribute to the participants' withdrawal from their universities.

Abstract
Over the last decade, Graham Allison's 'Thucydides trap' has become a predominant framework for analysing the prospect of great power conflict between the United States and China. The controversy surrounding this rise to prominence has reinvigorated a tradition of thinking about the effects of power parity on global order that previously flourished during the Cold War. This renewed attention has nevertheless come at a significant cost. By reconstructing the tradition from which the Thucydides trap emerges, a tradition that we call rise-and-fall theory, this article demonstrates how the ascendance of the Thucydides trap as a framework of analysis has obscured critical debates about the relationship between the rise and fall of competing powers and the onset of conflict. These debates problematize fundamental questions concerning how to conceptualize power, what types of interstate relations are to be analysed, and which causal mechanism(s) matter most in explaining revisionism and conflict. This article demonstrates how the Thucydides trap largely overlooks these debates, thereby providing analysts with less precise heuristics for thinking about the prospect of global conflict than they might otherwise have. We develop a more pluralistic approach to the application of rise-and-fall theory that makes use of its diverse perspectives and substantive divergences to provide more nuanced and holistic analyses.

Abstract
Understanding how stakeholders choose to participate in different policy forums is central to research on complex, polycentric governance systems. In this article, we draw upon the Ecology of Games Theory (EGT) to develop theoretical expectations about how four incentive structures may guide how actors navigate the world of policy forums. We test these expectations using unique data on a three-mode network of actors, forums, and issues related to climate change adaption in the state of Ohio, in the US Midwest. Results of an exponential random graph model suggest that multilevel closure structures, which are a function of transaction costs and direct benefits, guide actors' forum participation in ways that can either reinforce sub-optimal, ineffective governance arrangements, or conversely, encourage opportunities for innovation, increase diversity in representation, and facilitate policy learning. From a methodological standpoint, our research highlights the benefits of examining complex governance systems through the more precise approach allowed by three-mode network analysis, which has not been frequently used in research on polycentric governance systems up to this point.

We review the literature examining collaborative governance processes from a network perspective and evaluate the extent to which it tackles important conceptual and methodological challenges. In particular, we assess whether scholars clearly identify the boundaries of the network, define nodes and the nature of ties, and examine how they deal with missing data, account for tie strength, take tie multiplexity into account, and study networks over time. We discuss the implications of our findings for the collaborative governance literature and ways to address the shortcomings in existing research.

Social and ecological outcomes of environmental governance systems are shaped by interplay across the spatial levels at which policy actors and decision-making forums operate. We focus on the conditions under which actors participate in policy forums operating at higher or lower levels than the actors' own level. We draw upon theories of network science and transaction costs to formulate and test predictions about the overall prevalence of such cross-level linkages as well as the conditions under which policy actors engage in these linkages. We estimate an exponential random graph model using data collected from a survey of climate change adaptation policy actors participating in decision-making forums operating at different spatial levels within the Lake Victoria region in East Africa. Within this governance system, efforts to improve adaptive capacity across national boundaries and diverse vulnerable populations hinge on how well policy forums operating at regional and higher levels attract the participation of actors with access to information about local conditions, the efficiency with which actors can disseminate funding and technical resources through more local policy forums, as well as other processes that occur via cross-level linkages. We find that actors are less likely to engage in cross-level linkages compared to within-level linkages. Conditioning on this general tendency, actors are even less likely to participate in forums operating at lower levels in which their collaborators also participate. By contrast, actors are more likely to participate in forums operating at lower levels when influential actors jointly participate. These findings, which highlight distinct roles of social and political capital in cross-level forum participation, have implications for efforts to improve climate change adaptation governance in the Lake Victoria region, as well as other multilevel governance systems.

AbstractIntroductionOral pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) provision is a priority intervention for high HIV prevalence settings and populations at substantial risk of HIV acquisition. This mathematical modelling analysis estimated the impact, cost and cost‐effectiveness of scaling up oral PrEP in 13 countries.MethodsWe projected the impact and cost‐effectiveness of oral PrEP between 2018 and 2030 using a combination of the Incidence Patterns Model and the Goals model. We created four PrEP rollout scenarios involving three priority populations—female sex workers (FSWs), serodiscordant couples (SDCs) and adolescent girls and young women (AGYW)—both with and without geographic prioritization. We applied the model to 13 countries (Eswatini, Ethiopia, Haiti, Kenya, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe). The base case assumed achievement of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 90‐90‐90 antiretroviral therapy targets, 90% male circumcision coverage by 2020 and 90% efficacy and adherence levels for oral PrEP.ResultsIn the scenarios we examined, oral PrEP averted 3% to 8% of HIV infections across the 13 countries between 2018 and 2030. For all but three countries, more than 50% of the HIV infections averted by oral PrEP in the scenarios we examined could be obtained by rollout to FSWs and SDCs alone. For several countries, expanding oral PrEP to include medium‐risk AGYW in all regions greatly increased the impact. The efficiency and impact benefits of geographic prioritization of rollout to AGYW varied across countries. Variations in cost‐effectiveness across countries reflected differences in HIV incidence and expected variations in unit cost. For most countries, rolling out oral PrEP to FSWs, SDCs and geographically prioritized AGYW was not projected to have a substantial impact on the supply chain for antiretroviral drugs.ConclusionsThese modelling results can inform prioritization, target‐setting and other decisions related to oral PrEP scale‐up within combination prevention programmes. We caution against extensive use given limitations in cost data and implementation approaches. This analysis highlights some of the immediate challenges facing countries—for example, trade‐offs between overall impact and cost‐effectiveness—and emphasizes the need to improve data availability and risk assessment tools to help countries make informed decisions.