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AbstractThis study examines China's structural transformation under the assumption that its employment structure converges to that in major developed economies in one and a half decades. The required annual output differentials between tradable and nontradable sectors, productivity increment in the nontradable sector, and government expenditure increment are estimated with the goal of employment stability conditional on population ageing. It appears that labour transfer from the tradable sector to the nontradable sector would be accompanied by relatively large aggregate output changes due to population ageing and efficiency changes in the tradable sector. Consumer price and real exchange rates are less affected during structural transformation. Although fiscal deficit would increase, government expenditure as a tool to stabilize employment is welfare improving as long as job switching is not cost prohibitive.

This study compares the sources of growth in East Asia with the rest of the world, using a methodology that allows one to decompose total factor productivity (TFP) growth into technical efficiency changes (catching up) and technological progress. It applies a varying coefficients frontier production function model to aggregate data for the period 1970-1990, for a sample of 45 developed and developing countries. Our results are consistent with the view that East Asian economies were not outliers in terms of TFP growth. Of the high-performing East Asian economies, our methodology identifies South Korea as having the highest TFP growth, followed by Singapore, Taiwan and Japan. Our methodology also allows us to separately estimate technical efficiency change, which is a component of TFP growth, and we find that, in general, the estimated technical efficiency of the high-performing East Asian economies was not out of line with the rest of the world.