Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and evidence
In: Journal of international economics, Band 94, Heft 1, S. 50-66
ISSN: 0022-1996
20 Ergebnisse
Sortierung:
In: Journal of international economics, Band 94, Heft 1, S. 50-66
ISSN: 0022-1996
In: American economic review, Band 107, Heft 9, S. 2731-2783
ISSN: 1944-7981
We examine the impact of policy uncertainty on trade, prices, and real income through firm entry investments in general equilibrium. We estimate and quantify the impact of trade policy on China's export boom to the United States following its 2001 WTO accession. We find the accession reduced the US threat of a trade war, which can account for over one-third of that export growth in the period 2000– 2005. Reduced policy uncertainty lowered US prices and increased its consumers' income by the equivalent of a 13-percentage-point permanent tariff decrease. These findings provide evidence of large effects of policy uncertainty on economic activity and the importance of agreements for reducing it. (JEL D72, F13, F14, O19, P33)
In: NBER Working Paper No. w19376
SSRN
In: NBER Working Paper No. w17790
SSRN
Working paper
In: NBER Working Paper No. w27896
SSRN
Working paper
In: Journal of international economics, Band 139, S. 103661
ISSN: 0022-1996
In: FEDS Notes No. 2020-10-16 https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2751
SSRN
Working paper
In: NBER Working Paper No. w26611
SSRN
In: NBER Working Paper No. w25334
SSRN
In: NBER Working Paper No. w24368
SSRN
Working paper
In: Ross School of Business Paper No. 1382
SSRN
Working paper
In: The economic journal: the journal of the Royal Economic Society, Band 131, Heft 635, S. 1150-1185
ISSN: 1468-0297
Abstract
We estimate the uncertainty effects of preferential trade disagreements. Increases in the probability of Britain's exit from the European Union (Brexit) reduce bilateral export values and trade participation. These effects are increasing in trade policy risk across products. We estimate that at the average disagreement tariff of 4.5% the increase in the probability of Brexit after the referendum lowered EU–UK bilateral export values between 11–20%. Neither the EU or UK exporters believed a trade war was likely.
In: Journal of international economics, Band 150, S. 103909
ISSN: 0022-1996
In: NBER Working Paper No. w27910
SSRN
Working paper
SSRN