Suchergebnisse

Shifts in the ecosystems distribution as the result of climate change are of interest for decision-makers in biodiversity conservation at local and European level. This paper presents the use of modeling technique, Maxent (Maximum entropy modeling) and BIOCLIM (environmental envelope model), to estimate the impact of climate change on the Alpine bioregion of Continental Europe for improving the management policy in support of stopping biodiversity loss. The European Union priority habitat 6230 occurring in mountain areas and sub-mountain areas of the Carpathians was selected for modeling being of high priority conservation status in the Natura 2000 network of protected area. Maxent and BIOCLIM were used to create spatial distribution models for Mesophilous oligotrophic mountain pasture and Subalpine oligotrophic pastures. Models were run with 1950–2000 averaged bioclimatic data and double atmospheric CO2 concentration scenario in perspective of the year 2050. In our analyses we have included once all 6320 mapped habitat with Nardus grasslands. Under 1950–2000 climate scenario, both models exhibited high AUC values (> 0.9). The predicted geographical distribution of Mesophilous oligotrophic mountain pasture and Subalpine oligotrophic pastures coded as VNG and PON habitat modeled by Maxent and BIOCLIM shows differences between the modeling approaches, with Maxent predicting smaller areas (12% less) of suitable habitat than BIOCLIM. For the future climate scenario (double CO2) the surface with PON+VNG decreases by 31% for Maxent and 26% for BIOCLIM. However both models show significant shifts of the Nardus habitat due to climate change. The distribution maps obtained indicate vulnerability areas to biodiversity loss and of interest to be monitored. The output of models will contribute to the Black Sea Catchment Observation Systems to be further accessible to scientists, decision-makers and the general public.

Water resources globally are affected by a complex mixture of stressors resulting from a range of drivers, including urban and agricultural land use, hydropower generation and climate change. Understanding how stressors interfere and impact upon ecological status and ecosystem services is essential for developing effective River Basin Management Plans and shaping future environmental policy. This paper details the nature of these problems for Europe's water resources and the need to find solutions at a range of spatial scales. In terms of the latter, we describe the aims and approaches of the EU-funded project MARS (Managing Aquatic ecosystems and water Resources under multiple Stress) and the conceptual and analytical framework that it is adopting to provide this knowledge, understanding and tools needed to address multiple stressors. MARS is operating at three scales: At the water body scale, the mechanistic understanding of stressor interactions and their impact upon water resources, ecological status and ecosystem services will be examined through multi-factorial experiments and the analysis of long time-series. At the river basin scale, modelling and empirical approaches will be adopted to characterise relationships between multiple stressors and ecological responses, functions, services and water resources. The effects of future land use and mitigation scenarios in 16 European river basins will be assessed. At the European, scale, large-scale spatial analysis will be carried out to identify the relationships amongst stress intensity, ecological status and service provision, with a special focus on large transboundary rivers, lakes and fish. The project will support managers and policy makers in the practical implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD), of related legislation and of the Blueprint to Safeguard Europe's Water Resources by advising the 3rd River Basin Management Planning cycle, the revision of the WFD and by developing new tools for diagnosing and predicting multiple stressors. (C) 2014 Published by Elsevier B.V.