Suchergebnisse

Det er velkendt, at valgdeltagelsen blandt ikke-vestlige indvandrere og efterkommere er markant lavere end blandt etniske danskere. Et centralt spørgsmål er, om noget af denne forskel kan forklares med de forskellige demografiske sammensætninger i de to grupper. Vi finder, at ikke-vestlige indvandrere ved kommunalvalget i 2013 havde 31 procentpoint lavere valgdeltagelse end etniske danskere, selv når der tages højde for demografiske karakteristika. Efterkommere stemmer 4 procentpoint mindre end indvandrere deskriptivt, men 7 procentpoint mere end indvandrere, når der tages højde for demografi. Efterkommeres efterslæb til de etniske danskere mindskes altså, når der kontrolleres for demografi, men det er stadig 24 procentpoints forskel. Danske statsborgere stemmer væsentligt hyppigere end ikke-danske statsborgere, men vi finder ikke stærk evidens for en betydelig statsborgerskabseffekt på valgdeltagelsen, når vi prøver at udskille den selvstændige effekt heraf. Resultaterne peger i retning af, at forløbet op til opnåelse af statsborgerskab skærper de kommende statsborgeres interesse for at stemme ved kommunalvalget, som dog forsvinder efter opnåelsen af statsborgerskab, om end der er behov for yderligere studier på området.

Electoral turnout among non-western immigrants is substantially lower than among ethnic Danes. How much of the difference in turnout is simply due to different demographic compositions of the two groups? In the 2013 Danish municipal election, first-generation non-western immigrants voted 31 percentage points less than ethnic Danes, even when demographic composition is taken into consideration. Second-generation non-western immigrants voted 4 percentage points less than the first generation when demographic composition is not considered, but 7 percentage points more under control for the two groups' different demographic composition. The gap in turnout between second-generation non-western immigrants and ethnic Danes shrinks when demographic composition is considered, but the group still lags 24 percentage points behind. Danish citizens turn out more than non-Danish citizens, but we do not find strong evidence of an effect of becoming a citizen when we try to identify the independent effect of this factor. The analysis indicates that the process up to becoming a citizen increases turnout at the municipal election, but that this effect disappears when citizenship is obtained. However, there is a need for more studies in the area.

A vast amount of experimental evidence suggests that get-out-the-vote encouragements delivered through door-to-door canvassing have large effects on turnout. Most of the existing studies have been conducted in the United States, and are inspiring European mobilization campaigns. This article explores the empirical question of whether the American findings are applicable to Europe. It combines existing European studies and presents two new Danish studies to show that the pooled point estimate of the effect is substantially smaller in Europe than in the United States, and finds no effects in the two Danish experiments. The article discusses why the effects seem to be different in Europe compared to the United States, and stresses the need for further experiments in Europe as there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the European effects. While one possible explanation is that differences in turnout rates explain the differences in effect sizes, the empirical analysis finds no strong relationship between turnout and effect sizes in either Europe or the United States. ; A vast amount of experimental evidence suggests that get-out-the-vote encouragements delivered through door-to-door canvassing have large effects on turnout. Most of the existing studies have been conducted in the United States, and are inspiring European mobilization campaigns. This article explores the empirical question of whether the American findings are applicable to Europe. It combines existing European studies and presents two new Danish studies to show that the pooled point estimate of the effect is substantially smaller in Europe than in the United States, and finds no effects in the two Danish experiments. The article discusses why the effects seem to be different in Europe compared to the United States, and stresses the need for further experiments in Europe as there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the European effects. While one possible explanation is that differences in turnout rates explain the differences in effect sizes, the empirical analysis finds no strong relationship between turnout and effect sizes in either Europe or the United States.

Becoming a parent is a profound change in one's life that likely has consequences for political mobilization. This paper focuses on the earliest stages of parenthood, which have rarely been theorized nor empirically investigated. Close to childbirth, there may be substantial demobilizing effects due to hospital stays, immediate childcare responsibilities, parenting distress and the physical burden of pregnancy and childbirth. It is unclear how sizeable these effects are on political demobilization as well as the extent to which they are long-lasting. Based on two individual-level register datasets from Denmark and Finland, we compare the voter turnout among parents in local elections across different dates of childbirth. We find a robust negative short-term effect. We also find that the recovery periods after childbirth are differentiated by gender, illustrating a somewhat stronger demobilizing effect of early stages of motherhood compared to the early stages of fatherhood. There are also some indications that recovery periods after childbirth are slower for women with higher socioeconomic backgrounds. Our study shows that childbearing and childbirth have strong demobilizing, although mostly temporary, implications for electoral participation, even in these strong welfare states.

This article investigates how election information such as opinion polls can influence voting intention. The bandwagon effect claims that voters 'float along': a party experiencing increased support receives more support, and vice versa. Through a large national survey experiment, evidence is found of a bandwagon effect among Danish voters. When voters are exposed to a news story describing either an upwards or downwards movement for either a small or large party, they tend to move their voting intentions in the according direction. The effect is strongest in the positive direction – that is, when a party experiences increased support, more follows. Consistent effects are found across two different parties for a diverse national sample in a political context very different from earlier research on the bandwagon effects. Considering previous research and the fact that evidence is not found that suggests that the effect of polls vary across sociodemographic groups, the results imply that bandwagon behaviour is based not on social or political contingencies, such as media or political institution, but on fundamentals of political cognition.

Som al anden information kan meningsmålinger påvirke opinionen. Vi præsenterer to hypoteser til at forstå, hvordan meningsmålinger påvirker opinionen: bandwagon- og underdog-effekten. Bandwagon-effekten hævder, at vælgerne "springer med på vognen", således at et parti i fremgang vil opleve yderligere tilslutning og omvendt, hvis partiet står til tilbagegang. Underdog-effekten fremhæver, at et parti, som står til tilbagegang, høster sympatistemmer. De to hypoteser testes via et survey-eksperiment. Vi finder belæg for bandwagon-effekten, og effekten er stærkest i positiv retning: Når et parti går frem, trækker det flere med. Der er også tendens til den negative bandwagon-effekt. Der findes ikke belæg for underdog-effekten. Effekterne er i samme retning uafhængigt af partiets størrelse. Vi afslutter med at diskutere forbud mod offentliggørelse af meningsmålinger.

Information like opinion polls can influence public opinion. We present two hypotheses to understand how polls affect voters: First, the bandwagon effect claims that voters "float along": A party experiencing increased support receives more support and vice versa. Second, the underdog effect claims that a party experiencing declining support receives sympathy votes. Through a survey experiment we find evidence of the bandwagon effect, and the effect is strongest in the positive direction, that is, when a party experiences increased support more will follow. The negative bandwagon effect also finds support, but there is no support for the underdog effect. The effects are in the same direction regardless of the size of the party. We discuss whether publication of opinion polls should be banned.

It is becoming increasingly popular among Danes to use early voting. The article describes the changes that have been made in the electoral law to accommodate the use of early voting and describes the historical development in the use of early voting. In addition, we show that there is considerable variation in the use of early voting at the municipal level, and that it is especially the citizens of the island municipalities, rich municipalities and metropolitan municipalities that use early voting. In the third part of the analysis, we examine individual differences in the use of early voting with the help of a data set with over two million Danish voters in the municipal elections in 2013. We show that early voting is primarily used by the oldest citizens and citizens with a nontechnical education – two groups that traditionally have turned out at high rates. Finally, we analyze the characteristics that can help to predict which citizens use early voting. ; It is becoming increasingly popular among Danes to use early voting. The article describes the changes that have been made in the electoral law to accommodate the use of early voting and describes the historical development in the use of early voting. In addition, we show that there is considerable variation in the use of early voting at the municipal level, and that it is especially the citizens of the island municipalities, rich municipalities and metropolitan municipalities that use early voting. In the third part of the analysis, we examine individual differences in the use of early voting with the help of a data set with over two million Danish voters in the municipal elections in 2013. We show that early voting is primarily used by the oldest citizens and citizens with a non-technical education – two groups that traditionally have turned out at high rates. Finally, we analyze the characteristics that can help to predict which citizens use early voting.