Entwicklung eines energetischen Sanierungsmodells für den europäischen Wohngebäudesektor unter dem Aspekt der Erstellung von Szenarien für Energie- und CO$_{2}$-Einsparpotenziale bis 2030
European climate protection policy for reducing CO$_{2}$ emissions in the buildings sector iscurrently defined by guidelines on the overall energy efficiency of buildings, the efficiency ofenergy services and the guideline on renewable energy sources. This framework defines thebasis for developing the demands made on thermal insulation for old and new buildings andmakes it necessary to establish strategies for reducing CO$_{2}$ emissions in the residentialbuildings sector. At the moment, the buildings sector is characterized by considerabledeficiencies due to insufficient data and the scarcity of realistic potential studies which couldreveal the lack of implementation. Furthermore, it is unclear whether the legal reductiontargets can be reached by means of these guidelines.Against this background, a set of instruments will be developed in the present contribution forderiving the energy savings potential for the European residential buildings sector by meansof energy-related modernization. On the basis of this set of instruments, an energy-relatedmodernization model will be developed in order to transfer this approach to the overallEuropean residential building stock and to derive specific savings in energy and CO$_{2}$emissions.Based on a probability-theory approach, this modernization model can be used to determinethe energy-related modernization potential in the residential building stock in a differentiatedmanner according to building type and component. Furthermore, future developments inclimate protection activities can be analysed and evaluated by these scenarios.The results of the reduction scenarios show quite clearly that the EU reduction goals currentlyunder discussion, aiming at cutting emissions by at least 20 % by 2020 in comparison to1990 and raising the contribution of renewables to heat production to at least 20 %, will notbe achieved without an intensification of modernization activities and the increasedapplication of renewables in the stock of residential buildings.