Abstract. Disaster damages have negative effects on the economy, whereas reconstruction investment has positive effects. The aim of this study is to model economic causes of disasters and recovery involving the positive effects of reconstruction activities. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a promising approach because it can incorporate these two kinds of shocks into a unified framework and furthermore avoid the double-counting problem. In order to factor both shocks into the CGE model, direct loss is set as the amount of capital stock reduced on the supply side of the economy; a portion of investments restores the capital stock in an existing period; an investment-driven dynamic model is formulated according to available reconstruction data, and the rest of a given country's saving is set as an endogenous variable to balance the fixed investment. The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake is selected as a case study to illustrate the model, and three scenarios are constructed: S0 (no disaster occurs), S1 (disaster occurs with reconstruction investment) and S2 (disaster occurs without reconstruction investment). S0 is taken as business as usual, and the differences between S1 and S0 and that between S2 and S0 can be interpreted as economic losses including reconstruction and excluding reconstruction, respectively. The study showed that output from S1 is found to be closer to real data than that from S2. Economic loss under S2 is roughly 1.5 times that under S1. The gap in the economic aggregate between S1 and S0 is reduced to 3% at the end of government-led reconstruction activity, a level that should take another four years to achieve under S2.
Solar photovoltaics involves the generation of electricity directly from sunlight when this light shines upon solar cells packaged into a solar module. Silicon is the most common material used to make these photovoltaic cells, similarly to its predominant role in microelectronics, although several other photovoltaic materials are being actively investigated.With the devastating Australian bushfires followed by the coronavirus pandemic, 2020 was a difficult and often tragic year for many. Photovoltaics, however, continued on a positive trajectory with record levels installed globally. Highlights were a marked change in attitude by the International Energy Agency (IEA), billing itself as "the world's authority on energy" but with an appallingly poor past record in understanding solar's likely impact. In the 2020 issue of the IEA's flagship publication, the World Energy Outlook 2020, a marked change in emphasis is noted including the statement: "With sharp cost reductions over the past decade, solar PV is consistently cheaper than new coal- or gas-fired power plants in most countries, and solar projects now offer some of the lowest cost electricity ever seen." Under the banner of "Solar becomes the new king of electricity", solar is projected to account for most new electricity generation out to 2040, despite the IEA still underestimating likely installation rates by a huge margin. Another 2020 highlight has been the global manufacturing industry's almost complete adoption of UNSW PERC cell technology, where PERC stands for "passivated emitter and rear cell", conceived and perfected at UNSW in the 1980s and 1990s. Over 90% of global production in 2020 was PERC-based, up from almost zero per cent in 2015. ACAP played a key role in this transition, the most significant in the industry over the last 40 years, through the hydrogenation work initiated and led by the late Professor Stuart Wenham. PERC has led to a new surge in solar cost reductions not only through the increased energy conversion efficiency it offers but also through its increased functionality. This includes bifacial operation at low cost, boosting system output by 5–20% via light incident on the rear of solar modules, and large-wafer compatibility, due to the rear patterning required with PERC allowing cutting into smaller cells after fabrication. Larger wafers have led to a push to larger module sizes over the past few years, reducing assembly, transportation and installation costs.Australia leads the world in rooftop solar installations. The lead in small systems (<100 kW) was increased during 2020 with an additional 3 gigawatts installed during the year, a 40% increase over 2019, the previous record year, with a similar increase in large commercial systems. Solar's contribution to electricity generation in the Australian National Electricity Market increased to 9.7% averaged over 2020, likely to exceed 12% average in 2021. Even more importantly, this strong solar contribution has significantly improved the power network's ability to meet peaks in electricity demand during summer heatwaves, where solar is proving much more reliable than conventional coal generators, whether new or aging.Also, on the international front, annual global photovoltaic installations increased to a new record of 145 gigawatts installed in 2020, according to market analysts. Photovoltaics also reinforced its position as one of the lowest cost options for electricity production yet developed, with wholesale module selling prices dropping 16% from 2019 averaged over the year. The lowest bid for the long-term supply of solar via a power purchase agreement decreased to US$13.12/MWh in August 2020. In breaking news as this report goes to press, this figure was reduced to US$10.40/MWh in early 2021, or an incredible US 1 cent/kWh, in normal household units!Australia has played a major role in achieving these very low costs and is expected to play a key role in future cost reductions through the ongoing activities of the Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics (ACAP), documented in this 2020 Annual Report.This is the eighth annual ACAP report, with ACAP activities supported by the Australian Government through the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA). ACAP aims to significantly accelerate photovoltaic development by leveraging development of "over the horizon" photovoltaic technology, providing a pipeline of improved technology for increased performance and ongoing cost reduction. A second aim is to provide high quality training opportunities for the next generation of photovoltaic researchers, with one targeted outcome being to consolidate Australia's position as the photovoltaic research and educational hub of the Asia-Pacific manufacturing region. In achieving these aims, ACAP works with a wide range of both localand international partners.ACAP came into being on 1 February 2013 after the signing of a Head Agreement between the University of New South Wales (UNSW) and ARENA. During 2013, related Collaboration Agreements were signed between UNSW and the other ACAP nodes, Australian National University (ANU), University of Melbourne (UoM), Monash University, University of Queensland (UQ) and CSIRO (Materials Science and Engineering, Melbourne) and, additionally, with the ACAP industrial partners, Suntech Research and Development, Australia (SRDA) (partnership now transferred to Wuxi Suntech Power Co., Ltd), Trina Solar Ltd, BlueScope Steel and BT Imaging, and subsequently with PV Lighthouse, Greatcell Pty Ltd and RayGen Resources Pty Ltd. Our major international partners include the NSF-DOE Engineering Research Center for Quantum Energy and Sustainable Solar Technologies (QESST), based at Arizona State University, and the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), as well as the Molecular Foundry, Berkeley, Stanford University, Georgia Institute of Technology, the University of California, Santa Barbara, and the Korean Green Energy Institute.
Using the data sets taken at center-of-mass energies above 4 GeV by the BESIII detector at the BEPCII storage ring, we search for the reaction e(+)e(-) -> gamma(ISR) X(3872) -> gamma(ISR)pi(+)pi(-) J/psi via the Initial State Radiation technique. The production of a resonance with quantum numbers J(PC) = 1(++) such as the X(3872) via single photon e(+)e(-) annihilation is forbidden, but is allowed by a next-to-leading order box diagram. We do not observe a significant signal of X(3872), and therefore give an upper limit for the electronic width times the branching fraction Gamma B-X(3872)(ee)(X(3872) -> pi(+)pi(-) J/psi) < 0.13 eVat the 90% confidence level. This measurement improves upon existing limits by a factor of 46. Using the same final state, we also measure the electronic width of the psi(3686) to be Gamma(psi)(ee)(3686) ee = 2213 +/- 18(stat) +/- 99(sys) eV. ; Funding: The BESIII collaboration thanks the staff of BEPCII and the IHEP computing center for their strong support. This work is supported in part by the National Key Basic Research Program of China under Contract No. 2015CB856700; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) under Contract Nos. 11125525, 11235011, 11322544, 11335008, 11425524; the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Large-Scale Scientific Facility Program; Joint Large-Scale Scientific Facility Funds of the NSFC and CAS under Contract Nos. 11179007, U1232201, U1332201; CAS under Contract Nos. KJCX2-YW-N29, KJCX2-YW-N45; 100 Talents Program of CAS; INPAC and Shanghai Key Laboratory for Particle Physics and Cosmology; German Research Foundation DFG under Contract No. CRC-1044; Seventh Framework Programme of the European Union under Marie Curie International Incoming Fellowship Grant Agreement No. 627240; Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Italy; Ministry of Development of Turkey under Contract No. DPT2006K-120470; Russian Foundation for Basic Research under Contract No. 14-07-91152; U.S. Department of Energy under Contract Nos. DE-FG02-04ER41291, DE-FG02-05ER41374, DE-FG02-94ER40823, DESC0010118; U.S. National Science Foundation; University of Groningen (RuG) and the Helmholtzzentrum fur Schwerionenforschung (GSI), Darmstadt; WCU Program of National Research Foundation of Korea under Contract No. R32-2008-000-10155-0.