Suchergebnisse

Two years after the breakdown of the Berlin wall, partners of Germany do not feel hopeful but desappointed. Growth was restricted to West Germany ; meanwhile, the rest of Europe went deeper and deeper into recession. Whose fault is it ? Not of reunification itself : immigrants flows to West and goods flows to East showed the expected impacts on activity, thanks to massive transferts quikly set up by Bonn in order to ease the integration of the five new Lander. The adopted policy-mix seems more responsible for the situation : more than impacts of growth, indirect tax increases taken to reduce public deficit fed up inflation and incited Bundesbank to react harder. The expectations of financial markets, which increased the long run interest rate and the exchange rate, were confirmed by this way. The historical simulations run with the MIMOSA model allow to measure the impact of these different shoks. German reunification did affect positively its partners in 1991, even if it was not obvious ; but this should diminish from 1992.

A la signature du traité de Maastricht, en février 1992, les finances publiques italiennes affichaient des soldes profondément dégradés et le stock de dette publique dépassait le montant du revenu national annuel, tandis que le taux d'inflation, bien qu'en recul par rapport aux niveaux atteints au début des années quatre- vingt, demeurait sensiblement supérieur à celui des principaux partenaires européens. L 'origine de ces déséquilibres est ancienne : avant même le premier choc pétrolier, le déficit public s'était creusé sous l'effet d'une augmentation rapide des dépenses et d'un ajustement insuffisant des recettes publiques. La série ininterrompue de déficits publics enregistrée depuis lors n'a eu, pendant une décennie, que des effets modérés sur le stock de dette publique en raison de la persistance d'une forte inflation, qu'elle contribuait à alimenter par la monétisation de la dette, et qu'entretenaient des mécanismes automatiques d'indexation des salaires. L'adhésion, dès 1979, de l'Italie au Système monétaire européen (SME) a permis aux autorités monétaires nationales d'acquérir une plus grande autonomie et d'engager le processus de désinflation ; mais la montée des taux d'intérêt et le recul de l'inflation ont alors donné une impulsion majeure à l'accroissement de la dette publique et les augmentations de dépenses publiques n'ont pas été maîtrisées, tandis que la hausse des recettes, bien que substantielle, demeurait insuffisante. Cette détérioration des comptes publics et la trop lente décrue de l'inflation ont, certes, permis de réaliser des performances macroéconomiques relativement bonnes dans les années quatre-vingt, mais au prix de déséquilibres croissants, notamment dans les échanges extérieurs du fait de pertes quasi continues de compétitivité, surtout après 1987, lorsque le taux de change de la lire a cessé de se déprécier. Face à ces évolutions insoutenables et prenant appui sur les nécessités de la convergence inscrite dans le traité de Maastricht, les autorités italiennes ont entrepris, à partir de 1992, un ambitieux programme d'assainissement des finances publiques et obtenu la désindexation des salaires. Pourtant, ce « tournant de la rigueur » à l'italienne, dont les premiers fruits sont visibles sur les soldes publics et sur l'inflation, ne semble pas avoir engendré la récession que beaucoup redoutaient. Certes la contraction de la dépense intérieure est très sensible en 1993 ; mais la dépréciation de la lire depuis sa sortie du mécanisme de change du SME, en septembre 1992, a dopé les exportations et réduit les importations, sans avoir de conséquences apparentes sur l'inflation interne. Le dosage des politiques économiques apparaît ainsi particulièrement approprié et la manœuvre d'ajustement bien engagée. Toutefois, la situation des finances publiques demeure précaire : la progression de la dette publique est certes freinée et il est prévu qu'elle se stabilise à l'horizon de 1996, mais à un niveau si élevé que tout ralentissement de l'activité et toute hausse des taux d'intérêt risqueraient de la mettre à nouveau sur un sentier de croissance explosive.

Les finances publiques font partie des critères retenus par les signataires du Traité de Maastricht pour apprécier l'état de convergence des économies et leur capacité à adopter la monnaie commune européenne dont l'entrée en vigueur est prévue pour 1999. Pour les membres de la CE, cela crée une norme supplémentaire d'évolution des dépenses publiques qui devrait les pousser à mieux coordonner leur politique budgétaire. L'expérience passée pourtant montre de leur part certaines difficultés à accepter cette coordination qui ne se fait en réalité que sous la contrainte. Le but du présent article est de montrer les difficultés des gestionnaires dans leur construction d'une politique budgétaire favorable à la croissance. Il cherche à expliquer, au travers de l'historique des finances publiques en Europe depuis trente ans, comment les relances qui ont suivi le premier choc pétrolier ont amené progressivement, du fait de l'alourdissement des dettes publiques, tous les Etats européens à conduire dans les années quatre-vingt des politiques restrictives, légitimées par le retour en vogue des idées libérales. Ces politiques ont permis à la plupart des Etats de réduire fortement leur déficit et donné l'illusion d'une convergence voulue ou spontanée dans leur démarche budgétaire. La récession du début des années quatre-vingt dix a révélé le caractère artificiel et très fragile de cette convergence : les Etats, malgré un attache- ment formel affiché au Traité de Maastricht, ont de nouveau laissé filer les déficits budgétaires de façon indépendante les uns des autres et à des niveaux tels qu'il est probable qu'en 1999 personne à part le Luxembourg ne respectera les critères retenus dans le traité ; elle a renforcé les tendances au repli national qui se sont concrétisées dans le destin du budget de la Communauté européenne qui reste d'un faible montant (1,2 % du Pib communautaire) et qui ne devrait vraisemblablement pas s'accroître.

Growth : the lost secret ? Équipe MIMOSA Since 1990, growth in the industrial countries has become again insufficient to prevent a further rise in unemployment. The announced recovery has been quite weak in 1992, except in the United States. Will it happen in 1993 and 1994 ? The dollar's rise, resulting of the decreasing gap between Germany and US interest rates, should moderate US activity, and stimulate the European growth. Inflation remains weak and oil and raw materials prices are stable. A strong recovery in investment is difficult to forecast as the capacity rates of utilisation remain low. Despite the decrease in nominal interest rates, real rates remain high. Consumption is weak, and fiscal policies generally restrictive. In the middle term (1994-2000), the average growth for OECD countries should be 2.4 % per year. The United States, having budgetary constraints and low productivity, should grow at only 2.2 %. Japan should slowly emerge from its present problems, reaching a 3.3 % growth. In Europe, West Germany should match again its potential growth (2.4 %), which should imply a global rate of 3 % a year for a unified Germany. The United Kingdom should acknowledge a certain recovery after its 2 year-long deep recession, with an average growth of 2.2 %. Growth in France should also be 2.2 %. Enduring rigorous fiscal policy, Italy should grow at only 1.9 % a year. The world GDP should rise 1.6 % in 1993, and 3.3 % a year from 1994 to 2000, due to the upsurge of New Industrial Countries, India and China. Eastern countries should enjoy sustained growth, but their production level should remain 15 % lower in 2000 than its 1989-level. The OECD growth should be quite weak, as economic policies hesitate between sustaining growth and balancing public and external accounts. Having accepted to deepen their budget deficit in 1991-1993, numerous governments are now limiting their spending and rising taxes, which is lowering activity. Nominal interest rates are low as inflation and growth are weak, but real interest rates remain far higher than the real growth rate. Low wage rises and the high level of unemployment both weigh on final consumption, leading firms to perceive low demand. European countries generally hesitate to devalue, along with a wage- freeze, that should perhaps reduce their unemployment rate due to competitiveness gains, but more surely endanger the European union process. Drastic policies to secure World economic growth, such as reducing real interest rates, sending massive capital flows toward East and South or co-ordinating fiscal stimulation, do not meet with unanimity among neither governments nor economists. The secret of growth seems to have been lost.

The article presents a medium-term projection of the world economy carried out with MIMOSA, a model jointly built and teamed by CEPII and OFCE.
The 1991-1992 period represents a break after the 80' s sharp growth impulsed by the oil counter-shock. The slow-down, which took place first in the United-States and the United-Kingdom, reached Continental Europe a year later, and is now effective in Japan. In the 1992-1993 period, the recovery will be soft : OECD growth will raise from 0,9 % in 1991 to 1,7% in 1992, and will reach 2,9% in 1993. In the United-States, the lack of fiscal support will limit the recovery, and the stimulating monetary policy will only have a small impact on consumption : households would reduce their debt burden rather than increase their consumption expenditures. Growth will reach 1,9 % in 1992 and 2,7 % in 1993. As direct effects of the German Unification will be over, measures to finance the former East Germany rebuilding and a restrictive monetary policy will keep on slowing German growth and hence the European one in 1992 and 1993. European growth will reach 1,6 % in 1992 and 29 in 1993. Inflation rates will be rather moderate in EEC countries except for the German one because of persistent wages pressures. The inflation rate will settle down to about 3 % in France whereas inflation rate will reach 4,5 % in 1992 and 4,1 % in 1993 in West Germany. There will be no major inflationary pressure in the United-States. In the middle run growth will lack driving forces The average annual growth rate will be 2,7 % for OECD countries from 1992 to 1997, of which 3,4 % in Japan 2,7 % in EEC and 2,5 % in the United-States, growth will cope with supply constraints in the United-States, Japan and Germany whereas in countries where unemployment is high (such as France, Italy and the United-Kindgom) economic policies will remain under the constraint of reaching external balance and/or public finance targets.

Cet article a été écrit par l'équipe MIMOSA, commune au CEPII et à l'OFCE. ; Mimosa, a macroeconomic model of the world economy, jointly built by the CEPII and the OFCE, is now operational. This article presents its main features and describes some monetary and fiscal multipliers. The economies of the six bigger industrialised countries are described in great detail by neo-keynesian models : a five product disaggregation distinguishes the energy sector, agriculture, the non-traded sector, the government sector and the industrial sector for which a putty-clay production function ensures compatibilities between employment, investment and production capacity behaviour. These models allow a precise analysis of the consequences of many kinds of monetary or fiscal policies. The rest of the world is divided into nine zones, more succinctly modelled : the model reveals in particular the financing constraints which bear on the imports of the less developed countries. International trade is analysed through a four product disaggregation. The article shows the model's properties while describing the impacts, in the country and abroad, of an increase in public expenditure in one of the major countries. It studies the consequences of a decline of the value of the dollar and finally the implications of a woldwide decrease in interest rates. Although it remains, in some respects, work in progress, the Mimosa model is already a useful tool for understanding the functioning of the world economy and for predicting its evolution. ; MIMOSA, modèle macroéconomique de l'économie mondiale, construit en commun par le CEPII et l'OFCE est maintenant opérationnel. Le présent article en présente les principales caractéristiques ainsi que quelques propriétés variantielles. Les économies des six plus importants pays industrialisés sont décrites en détail par des modèles d'inspiration néo-keynésienne ; le découpage en cinq branches permet d'isoler l'énergie, le secteur agricole, le secteur abrité, le secteur non-marchand et l'industrie où la ...

Cet article a été écrit par l'équipe MIMOSA, commune au CEPII et à l'OFCE. ; Mimosa, a macroeconomic model of the world economy, jointly built by the CEPII and the OFCE, is now operational. This article presents its main features and describes some monetary and fiscal multipliers. The economies of the six bigger industrialised countries are described in great detail by neo-keynesian models : a five product disaggregation distinguishes the energy sector, agriculture, the non-traded sector, the government sector and the industrial sector for which a putty-clay production function ensures compatibilities between employment, investment and production capacity behaviour. These models allow a precise analysis of the consequences of many kinds of monetary or fiscal policies. The rest of the world is divided into nine zones, more succinctly modelled : the model reveals in particular the financing constraints which bear on the imports of the less developed countries. International trade is analysed through a four product disaggregation. The article shows the model's properties while describing the impacts, in the country and abroad, of an increase in public expenditure in one of the major countries. It studies the consequences of a decline of the value of the dollar and finally the implications of a woldwide decrease in interest rates. Although it remains, in some respects, work in progress, the Mimosa model is already a useful tool for understanding the functioning of the world economy and for predicting its evolution. ; MIMOSA, modèle macroéconomique de l'économie mondiale, construit en commun par le CEPII et l'OFCE est maintenant opérationnel. Le présent article en présente les principales caractéristiques ainsi que quelques propriétés variantielles. Les économies des six plus importants pays industrialisés sont décrites en détail par des modèles d'inspiration néo-keynésienne ; le découpage en cinq branches permet d'isoler l'énergie, le secteur agricole, le secteur abrité, le secteur non-marchand et l'industrie où la ...

Cet article a été écrit par l'équipe MIMOSA, commune au CEPII et à l'OFCE. ; Mimosa, a macroeconomic model of the world economy, jointly built by the CEPII and the OFCE, is now operational. This article presents its main features and describes some monetary and fiscal multipliers. The economies of the six bigger industrialised countries are described in great detail by neo-keynesian models : a five product disaggregation distinguishes the energy sector, agriculture, the non-traded sector, the government sector and the industrial sector for which a putty-clay production function ensures compatibilities between employment, investment and production capacity behaviour. These models allow a precise analysis of the consequences of many kinds of monetary or fiscal policies. The rest of the world is divided into nine zones, more succinctly modelled : the model reveals in particular the financing constraints which bear on the imports of the less developed countries. International trade is analysed through a four product disaggregation. The article shows the model's properties while describing the impacts, in the country and abroad, of an increase in public expenditure in one of the major countries. It studies the consequences of a decline of the value of the dollar and finally the implications of a woldwide decrease in interest rates. Although it remains, in some respects, work in progress, the Mimosa model is already a useful tool for understanding the functioning of the world economy and for predicting its evolution. ; MIMOSA, modèle macroéconomique de l'économie mondiale, construit en commun par le CEPII et l'OFCE est maintenant opérationnel. Le présent article en présente les principales caractéristiques ainsi que quelques propriétés variantielles. Les économies des six plus importants pays industrialisés sont décrites en détail par des modèles d'inspiration néo-keynésienne ; le découpage en cinq branches permet d'isoler l'énergie, le secteur agricole, le secteur abrité, le secteur non-marchand et l'industrie où la ...

Cet article a été écrit par l'équipe MIMOSA, commune au CEPII et à l'OFCE. ; Mimosa, a macroeconomic model of the world economy, jointly built by the CEPII and the OFCE, is now operational. This article presents its main features and describes some monetary and fiscal multipliers. The economies of the six bigger industrialised countries are described in great detail by neo-keynesian models : a five product disaggregation distinguishes the energy sector, agriculture, the non-traded sector, the government sector and the industrial sector for which a putty-clay production function ensures compatibilities between employment, investment and production capacity behaviour. These models allow a precise analysis of the consequences of many kinds of monetary or fiscal policies. The rest of the world is divided into nine zones, more succinctly modelled : the model reveals in particular the financing constraints which bear on the imports of the less developed countries. International trade is analysed through a four product disaggregation. The article shows the model's properties while describing the impacts, in the country and abroad, of an increase in public expenditure in one of the major countries. It studies the consequences of a decline of the value of the dollar and finally the implications of a woldwide decrease in interest rates. Although it remains, in some respects, work in progress, the Mimosa model is already a useful tool for understanding the functioning of the world economy and for predicting its evolution. ; MIMOSA, modèle macroéconomique de l'économie mondiale, construit en commun par le CEPII et l'OFCE est maintenant opérationnel. Le présent article en présente les principales caractéristiques ainsi que quelques propriétés variantielles. Les économies des six plus importants pays industrialisés sont décrites en détail par des modèles d'inspiration néo-keynésienne ; le découpage en cinq branches permet d'isoler l'énergie, le secteur agricole, le secteur abrité, le secteur non-marchand et l'industrie où la ...

Cet article a été écrit par l'équipe MIMOSA, commune au CEPII et à l'OFCE. ; Mimosa, a macroeconomic model of the world economy, jointly built by the CEPII and the OFCE, is now operational. This article presents its main features and describes some monetary and fiscal multipliers. The economies of the six bigger industrialised countries are described in great detail by neo-keynesian models : a five product disaggregation distinguishes the energy sector, agriculture, the non-traded sector, the government sector and the industrial sector for which a putty-clay production function ensures compatibilities between employment, investment and production capacity behaviour. These models allow a precise analysis of the consequences of many kinds of monetary or fiscal policies. The rest of the world is divided into nine zones, more succinctly modelled : the model reveals in particular the financing constraints which bear on the imports of the less developed countries. International trade is analysed through a four product disaggregation. The article shows the model's properties while describing the impacts, in the country and abroad, of an increase in public expenditure in one of the major countries. It studies the consequences of a decline of the value of the dollar and finally the implications of a woldwide decrease in interest rates. Although it remains, in some respects, work in progress, the Mimosa model is already a useful tool for understanding the functioning of the world economy and for predicting its evolution. ; MIMOSA, modèle macroéconomique de l'économie mondiale, construit en commun par le CEPII et l'OFCE est maintenant opérationnel. Le présent article en présente les principales caractéristiques ainsi que quelques propriétés variantielles. Les économies des six plus importants pays industrialisés sont décrites en détail par des modèles d'inspiration néo-keynésienne ; le découpage en cinq branches permet d'isoler l'énergie, le secteur agricole, le secteur abrité, le secteur non-marchand et l'industrie où la ...

Cet article a été écrit par l'équipe MIMOSA, commune au CEPII et à l'OFCE. ; Mimosa, a macroeconomic model of the world economy, jointly built by the CEPII and the OFCE, is now operational. This article presents its main features and describes some monetary and fiscal multipliers. The economies of the six bigger industrialised countries are described in great detail by neo-keynesian models : a five product disaggregation distinguishes the energy sector, agriculture, the non-traded sector, the government sector and the industrial sector for which a putty-clay production function ensures compatibilities between employment, investment and production capacity behaviour. These models allow a precise analysis of the consequences of many kinds of monetary or fiscal policies. The rest of the world is divided into nine zones, more succinctly modelled : the model reveals in particular the financing constraints which bear on the imports of the less developed countries. International trade is analysed through a four product disaggregation. The article shows the model's properties while describing the impacts, in the country and abroad, of an increase in public expenditure in one of the major countries. It studies the consequences of a decline of the value of the dollar and finally the implications of a woldwide decrease in interest rates. Although it remains, in some respects, work in progress, the Mimosa model is already a useful tool for understanding the functioning of the world economy and for predicting its evolution. ; MIMOSA, modèle macroéconomique de l'économie mondiale, construit en commun par le CEPII et l'OFCE est maintenant opérationnel. Le présent article en présente les principales caractéristiques ainsi que quelques propriétés variantielles. Les économies des six plus importants pays industrialisés sont décrites en détail par des modèles d'inspiration néo-keynésienne ; le découpage en cinq branches permet d'isoler l'énergie, le secteur agricole, le secteur abrité, le secteur non-marchand et l'industrie où la ...

Cet article a été écrit par l'équipe MIMOSA, commune au CEPII et à l'OFCE. ; Mimosa, a macroeconomic model of the world economy, jointly built by the CEPII and the OFCE, is now operational. This article presents its main features and describes some monetary and fiscal multipliers. The economies of the six bigger industrialised countries are described in great detail by neo-keynesian models : a five product disaggregation distinguishes the energy sector, agriculture, the non-traded sector, the government sector and the industrial sector for which a putty-clay production function ensures compatibilities between employment, investment and production capacity behaviour. These models allow a precise analysis of the consequences of many kinds of monetary or fiscal policies. The rest of the world is divided into nine zones, more succinctly modelled : the model reveals in particular the financing constraints which bear on the imports of the less developed countries. International trade is analysed through a four product disaggregation. The article shows the model's properties while describing the impacts, in the country and abroad, of an increase in public expenditure in one of the major countries. It studies the consequences of a decline of the value of the dollar and finally the implications of a woldwide decrease in interest rates. Although it remains, in some respects, work in progress, the Mimosa model is already a useful tool for understanding the functioning of the world economy and for predicting its evolution. ; MIMOSA, modèle macroéconomique de l'économie mondiale, construit en commun par le CEPII et l'OFCE est maintenant opérationnel. Le présent article en présente les principales caractéristiques ainsi que quelques propriétés variantielles. Les économies des six plus importants pays industrialisés sont décrites en détail par des modèles d'inspiration néo-keynésienne ; le découpage en cinq branches permet d'isoler l'énergie, le secteur agricole, le secteur abrité, le secteur non-marchand et l'industrie où la ...

Cet article a été écrit par l'équipe MIMOSA, commune au CEPII et à l'OFCE. ; Mimosa, a macroeconomic model of the world economy, jointly built by the CEPII and the OFCE, is now operational. This article presents its main features and describes some monetary and fiscal multipliers. The economies of the six bigger industrialised countries are described in great detail by neo-keynesian models : a five product disaggregation distinguishes the energy sector, agriculture, the non-traded sector, the government sector and the industrial sector for which a putty-clay production function ensures compatibilities between employment, investment and production capacity behaviour. These models allow a precise analysis of the consequences of many kinds of monetary or fiscal policies. The rest of the world is divided into nine zones, more succinctly modelled : the model reveals in particular the financing constraints which bear on the imports of the less developed countries. International trade is analysed through a four product disaggregation. The article shows the model's properties while describing the impacts, in the country and abroad, of an increase in public expenditure in one of the major countries. It studies the consequences of a decline of the value of the dollar and finally the implications of a woldwide decrease in interest rates. Although it remains, in some respects, work in progress, the Mimosa model is already a useful tool for understanding the functioning of the world economy and for predicting its evolution. ; MIMOSA, modèle macroéconomique de l'économie mondiale, construit en commun par le CEPII et l'OFCE est maintenant opérationnel. Le présent article en présente les principales caractéristiques ainsi que quelques propriétés variantielles. Les économies des six plus importants pays industrialisés sont décrites en détail par des modèles d'inspiration néo-keynésienne ; le découpage en cinq branches permet d'isoler l'énergie, le secteur agricole, le secteur abrité, le secteur non-marchand et l'industrie où la ...

Cet article a été écrit par l'équipe MIMOSA, commune au CEPII et à l'OFCE. ; Mimosa, a macroeconomic model of the world economy, jointly built by the CEPII and the OFCE, is now operational. This article presents its main features and describes some monetary and fiscal multipliers. The economies of the six bigger industrialised countries are described in great detail by neo-keynesian models : a five product disaggregation distinguishes the energy sector, agriculture, the non-traded sector, the government sector and the industrial sector for which a putty-clay production function ensures compatibilities between employment, investment and production capacity behaviour. These models allow a precise analysis of the consequences of many kinds of monetary or fiscal policies. The rest of the world is divided into nine zones, more succinctly modelled : the model reveals in particular the financing constraints which bear on the imports of the less developed countries. International trade is analysed through a four product disaggregation. The article shows the model's properties while describing the impacts, in the country and abroad, of an increase in public expenditure in one of the major countries. It studies the consequences of a decline of the value of the dollar and finally the implications of a woldwide decrease in interest rates. Although it remains, in some respects, work in progress, the Mimosa model is already a useful tool for understanding the functioning of the world economy and for predicting its evolution. ; MIMOSA, modèle macroéconomique de l'économie mondiale, construit en commun par le CEPII et l'OFCE est maintenant opérationnel. Le présent article en présente les principales caractéristiques ainsi que quelques propriétés variantielles. Les économies des six plus importants pays industrialisés sont décrites en détail par des modèles d'inspiration néo-keynésienne ; le découpage en cinq branches permet d'isoler l'énergie, le secteur agricole, le secteur abrité, le secteur non-marchand et l'industrie où la ...

The article presents the first medium-term projection of the world economy made using MIMOSA, a model built jointly by the CEPII and the OFCE.
After the unexpectedly good performance of the world economy in 1988, a period of slow down could take place in 1989/1990, resulting in part from strong anti-inflationary policies.
Growth in OECD countries would settle at around 3 % a year until 1 993. There would nevertheless be significant differences : growth would be moderate in the United States (2 % a year over the 1988-1993 period), while still vigorous in Japan (4,5 %) ; growth in the EEC would be one point higher than it was between 1979 and 1987, but still disappointing (2,7 %). After a period of lower growth rates than its Européen partners (1983-1987), France would reach the 2,6 % EEC average. The situation would be more propitious for developing countries in Latin America and Africa, which would gradually begin growing again, while Asia as a whole would see particularly strong growth. Inflation would remain under control : it would be weak in Japan, West Germany and France (respectively 1,4, 1,1 and 2,5 % in 1993). It would be significatly higher in the United States (5,4 %).
Oil prices would stabilise in real terms before increasing slowly at the beginning of 1 990. In spite of the dollar's nominal depreciation, (1 ,5 mark and 95 yen) and of the slow down of American growth, imbalances would remain : the United States current account deficit would reach 3,2 % of GNP by the end of the period, while Japaneese and German surpluses would persist.
Finally, disparities in Europe would gradually worsen. Whereas the unemployment rate would remain at a high level in France and Italy (1 1 %), it would decrease steadily in Germany, to reach 5,3 % in 1993, while remaining below its 1987 level in the United Kingdom. Meanwhile, large gaps would remain as far as public accounts are concerned, French discipline contrasting with a persistant deficit in Italy, and the external debt of the United Kingdom would grow. Even though a low inflation rate could be maintained (except for Italy), the objective of macroeconomic convergence within the EEC would still be far from being achieved in 1993.